Young star on small market team is seen as franchise savior, behaves in a way that suggests he believes himself to be untouchable. Coaches and management bend / break rules in order to let him do what he wants. Glaring double standard is implemented before team has even made it to playoffs, let alone won anything of significance.
Good luck, Sacramento.
I haven’t heard anyone mention this yet, but yesterday on Michael Reghi’s radio show, Brian Windhorst all but said the Cavaliers are looking to make a deal to with, presumably, either Golden State or Sacramento that would involve trading a starter, to get into the lottery on June 24.
Windhorst implied that this move is something outgoing GM Danny Ferry didn’t approve of, but that it was being demanded by majority owner Dan Gilbert. This, combined with the notion that Ferry may have had to cede some of his already diminishing power to a new coach, may have been what led to his decision to resign.
So what are the situations in Sacramento and Golden State like? Let’s start with draft picks. Sacramento picks #5 and Golden State picks #6. None of us here at Mesa watch college basketball, so we can’t offer much in the way of college scouting, but T.I.T. goon Chad Ford has Sacramento picking Al-Farouq Aminu at #5 and Golden State selecting DeMarcus Cousins at #6 in his last mock draft.
Aminu is a 19-year-old 6’9” SF out of Wake Forest. Cousins is a 19-year-old 6’11” C out of Kentucky.
We have to assume that the Cavs - and every other team in the NBA - is trying to figure out the order in which players will be taken after John Wall goes #1 to Washington. And for the Cavs to been engaged in trade talks to move up that high in the draft, they have to believe that a player they very much want will be available at #5 or #6.
You can see where this is going already, right?
If we’re guessing, and really that’s all we can do right now since we can’t breakdown the Cavaliers performance in the NBA Finals, we have to assume that Golden State is the more likely trade partner, since we know the Cavs discussed Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette (and probably Anthony Randolph) with them earlier in the year, and that sometimes trade talks take any number of months to manifest in an actual deal (see: Shaq). We also know that teams look to cut salary before they’re sold, and that the Cavs do have some expiring contracts (Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker, Leon Powe, Sebastian Telfair, and Delonte West, whose contract is mostly unguaranteed).
We also have to believe that if the Cavs could truly get Cousins, there is reason to think of it as a major move. By multiple metrics (John Hollinger’s Draft Rater and Dave Berri’s PAWS), Cousins was the most productive player in college basketball last season.
He also, um, played for Kentucky. Which LeBron visited on multiple occasions. He was coached by the great vacater of wins, John Calipari, who, um, LeBron is reportedly very fond of (did you know the Cavs have a head coach opening?) Now if Gilbert can just deliver Cousins to LRMR…
Of course, no deal involving a draft pick is likely to be consummated until draft night when it becomes definitive that said player the Cavaliers want is truly available. But the strategy of attacking the building of the team through the draft is critical at this point in time for the Cavs, especially since they’re over the salary cap and could be losing James.
I have little sense of which starter Golden State (or Sacramento) would want from the Cavs. Mo Williams is unlikely, unless the Cavs took Maggette back (he’s owed more money over the course of his deal than Mo). Antawn Jamison for Maggette wouldn’t save Golden State much cash. Monta Ellis’s contract is awful - $44M over the next 4 years - and so is Andre Biedrins - $36M over the next 4 years, so I assume both of those guys are probably in play. Obviously, taking on that kind of money would be very risky unless you were guaranteed of getting a star in the draft. And there are no guarantees in the draft.
But a deal involving Ellis or Biedrins is exactly the kind of deal one has to imagine Ferry might not be crazy about…
At any rate, we can only speculate on all of this, but it will be interesting to see what, if anything, occurs on June 24th. I bet some kind of deal does go down.
You can listen to Windhorst’s whole interview via ESPN Cleveland. Also, congratulations Chris Grant, you’ve now been awarded your first tag on JMID. Perhaps a nickname is next.
Finally, if you’re looking for more from JMID, follow us on Twitter.
This is the second in a series of posts about the Cavaliers’ potential options were they to partake in a sign and trade with LeBron James. You can read the first part here.
Assuming the projected $56.1M cap sticks and using salary numbers from HoopData, we can talk about which players might come back to Cleveland in a hypothetical sign and trade arrangement. Remember, since the Cavs are over the salary cap, the salaries going out / coming in must match within 125% + $100K. Before getting into this, I should say that if the Cavs tell James and his team that they’re open to a sign and trade, it opens the door for him to be dealt to any team in the NBA. For the sake of not letting things get out of control, however, I’ll stick to the teams with cap space for now. I’ll also assume that the Cavs wouldn’t be sending any other players out alongside James, although I’m willing to acknowledge that this could be rather unlikely. Yes, I know this is cheating. These proposed trades are based on the notion that LeBron’s salary next season, in a max deal, will be $16.6M (105% of his current salary - 30% of the cap would be $16.83M, but we’ll stick with $16.6M because the cap hasn’t officially been determined yet). This means that the salary totals involved in the trade would have to fall between $16.6M and $20.85M.
Washington Wizards: $23.4M in cap space
Now that the Wizards have won the draft lottery, their projected cap number has actually gone down $1.5M from what it would have been had the ping pong balls fallen true to the odds. The first pick in the draft costs $1.5M more than the fifth pick. As a side note, New Jersey’s projected cap number - as reported in part 1 - has now gone up by $900K, a result of the Nets coming up third in the lottery.
Washington is never mentioned as a possible destination for any free agents, particularly LeBron, so the likelihood of a sign and trade happening here is probably nil. I find this a little odd, since DC is a top 10 market (#9 to be exact), Ted Leonisis - a successful NHL owner is about to acquire the team - and a roster that now includes Gilbert Arenas and John Wall or Evan Turner. Andray Blatche, for lack of a better word, is a knucklehead, but showed some promise at the end of last season - and hey people used to say the same thing about Rajon Rondo. Washington also has the ability to go over the cap to resign the vastly underrated Mike Miller, who is also a friend of LeBron’s.
Having said that, I don’t expect LeBron to entertain the idea of playing for Washington. If he were to surprise us all, however, here’s what a sign and trade might look like:
Gilbert Arenas: $17.7M
As much as, I’m sure, Washington would love to make that trade, I’m pretty confident the Cavaliers would not. Can you imagine Dan Gilbert going to his corporate sponsors saying, “Guys, we just lost one of the greatest players to ever play this game … BUT we did get a pseudo-PG who is constantly injured and is just coming off of a gun charge!”
Yeah…
Sacramento Kings: $18.7M in cap space
For my money, Sacramento would be a fun place to watch LeBron play if he had to go somewhere else. It’s another smaller marker for one, and us smaller market people need to stick together in order to combat the sheer size and volume of the larger markets. Secondly, the Kings also have some interesting young players: Tyreke Evans, Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Omri Casspi, and Donte Greene.
Much like Dwyane Wade and James, I’m not sure Evans and James could play together, but Landry would be a nice fit at the 4 with LeBron playing the 3 and Greene and Casspi are long, athletic shooters.
Because Sacramento is a relatively young team, they’d have to package a lot of players together to hit the maximum salary number - which would also gut the core - unless the Cavs were willing to take:
Andres Nocioni: $6.9M
Beno Udrih: $6.5M
Francisco Garcia: $5.5M
Since Nocioni has 2 years left on his deal, and Udrih and Garcia have 3 years, I highly doubt this could ever come close to happening. Packaging Caspi ($1.3M - expiring), Thompson ($2.2M), Nocioni and Udrih would also get you there, and the Kings could even throw in Landry ($3M - expiring), too. That would make the deal more enticing for the Cavaliers, and it would also allow the Kings to rid themselves of the contracts of Nocioni and Udrih. However, Sacramento would lose three cost effective players in the deal, as well.
And LeBron’s not going to leave Cleveland to go to a smaller market that may be on the verge of moving to another city.
Los Angeles Clippers: $18M in cap space
The idea of playing for a team that’s owned by Donald Sterling should terrify James. LeBron is a hyper aware individual, so chances are it does, which means LeBron to the Clippers is unlikely.
Too bad. Because if he does choose to leave Cleveland, I have little doubt the Cavs could, relatively speaking, fleece the Clippers. And, the perverse side of me that hopes to see LeBron fail if he goes elsewhere, sees a Sterling-James partnership as a disastrous earthquake waiting to happen. Step #1: Sterling gives James max control. Step #2: Powerful earthquake of self-interest drives Los Angeles into the Pacific Ocean.
Since the Clippers have two players - Baron Davis and Chris Kaman - with big contracts, it’d be easy for them to pull off a deal. Therefore the Cavs could send James to LA for:
Baron Davis: $13M
Eric Gordon: $3M
Or
Chris Kaman: $11M
Blake Griffin: $5.4M
Or even the best fit, Davis and Griffin - and hopefully the Clippers next 10 draft picks, since picks hold no cash value).
Houston Rockets: -$3.6M in cap space
That’s not a typo. The Rockets do no have cap space. And yes, I said I was going to keep this sign and trade discussion to only teams with cap space, even though a sign and trade opens up the possibility of James going to any one of the other 29 teams in the NBA. But just to make this post - which is filled with a bunch of unlikely hypotheticals already - just a little more interesting, I want to talk about the Houston Rockets.
Why?
Because the Rockets prepared for the Summer of Money by gathering assets so that they could engage another team with a sign and trade since, historically, players never leave the team that can give them the most money (unless you’re Shaquille O’Neal). And because if I’m LeBron James, and I want to be a billionaire, and I want to do that by conquering China, I have to at least consider playing alongside Yao Ming.
And there’s good basketball reasons to do it, too. Yao’s a good jump shooter out to 15 feet, a great free thrower, and a giant, all qualities that would combine well with LeBron’s game.
So what could Houston offer?
Trevor Ariza: $6.3M
Kevin Martin: $10.6M
Or swap out Jared Jeffries for Ariza, whose contract at $6.9M expires after the 2011 season. Houston could also use three of the players they have in the $2M range - Kyle Lowry, Aaron Brooks, Chuck Hayes, Jordan Hill, or David Andersen to replace Ariza / Jeffries. Luis Scola at a $4.1M qualifying offer could also be packaged with one of the $2M players to achieve the same goal.
Houston has a collection of picks too from the Knicks and Clippers, as well as a bunch of players overseas whom they hold the rights to.
And thus ends my survey of the sign and trade landscape … at least for now. You can see why such a deal seems unlikely: largely, the teams the Cavs would be trading with would have to give up some or much of the talent LeBron would seemingly be interested in playing with to pull it off.
In other words, I don’t expect a sign and trade to happen - but when other people in the media start talking about the possibility of it, at least you know that Mesa has kept you informed.
The big buzz - amongst everyone who’s already determined LeBron James will leave Cleveland when he becomes a free agent on midnight of July 1st - is about the possibility of a sign and trade. While I think there is a significant chance James stays with the Cavaliers, I can’t fault people for wanting to talk about a sign and trade. It is at least progressive and forward thinking in the sense that it involves conversations about building for the future and maximizing assets in order to do so.
As we all know, after all, the Cavaliers have not won a title with LeBron in town.
Assuming the projected $56.1M cap sticks and using salary numbers from HoopData, we can talk about which players might come back to Cleveland in a hypothetical sign and trade arrangement. Remember, since the Cavs are over the salary cap, the salaries going out / coming in must match within 125% + $100K.
Before getting into this, I should say that if the Cavs tell James and his team that they’re open to a sign and trade, it opens the door for him to be dealt to any team in the NBA. For the sake of not letting things get out of control, however, I’ll stick to the teams with cap space for now. I’ll also assume that the Cavs wouldn’t be sending any other players out alongside James, although I’m willing to acknowledge that this could be rather unlikely.
Yes, I know this is cheating.
These proposed trades are based on the notion that LeBron’s salary next season, in a max deal, will be $16.6M (105% of his current salary - 30% of the cap would be $16.83M, but we’ll stick with $16.6M). This means that the salary totals involved in the trade would have to fall between $16.6M and $20.85M.
Chicago Bulls: $20.6M in cap space
Luol Deng: $11.3M
Kirk Hinrich: $9M
And wow that would be a terrible deal. I like Deng more than a lot of people I know, but he’s owed money through 2014 and Hinrich is owed another $8M in the 2011-12 season. Neither player comes anywhere close to filling the gap that would be left by James (in fairness, no two players probably will), and both have bad contracts.
The Bulls could throw Joakim Noah ($3.1M), Taj Gibson ($1.1M), and James Johnson ($1.7M) on top of Deng, but I doubt James goes to Chicago without Noah - unless he truly hates him - and I would consider Anderson Varejao Noah’s equal anyway. Taj Gibson is Glitch without the upside.
Miami Heat: $41.5 in cap space
A sign and trade with the Heat is literally impossible unless Miami were to sign a player(s) who is not currently under contract, or a three team deal - maybe with a franchise that is under the cap - could be swung.
In other words, next.
Side note: Remember when there was a debate between Michael Beasley and Derek Rose for the #1 pick? I believe that if Chicago hadn’t won the lottery, Beasley would’ve went first, and Miami may have had a stronger two man core of Dwayne Wade and Rose to add to this offseason. Of course, they still would have had a two man core…
I maintain that Pat Riley did a disservice to Wade, to Miami, and to the NBA by tanking for the past three seasons - no matter what happens this offseason - but that’s another story for another day.
New York Knicks: $34.5M in cap space
The Knicks are a semi-interesting case only because they open the door to one of the major conversations the Cavaliers front office will be having if it becomes clear James is steadfast on going to another team:
Is it better to get assets in a sign and trade or let James walk and focus on cap space in 2010 and/or 2011?
I bring this up because the Knicks would likely dangle Eddy Curry, who has one year left on his deal at $11.3M. The Knicks could also sign and trade David Lee, giving him to the Cavaliers along with Curry for a combined salary that would fall within the necessary limits.
In this scenario, the Cavs could be in a position to get a quality player in Lee and cap space in 2011, which could be hampered by a lockout and will be governed by a new collective bargaining agreement.
What no one knows is what free agency will look in 2011. Will it still be a relative gamble, where teams largely overpay for talent and run the risk of getting locked into bad contracts (Larry Hughes), or will it be restructured to be more favorable to the owners than to the players?
While all of the signs point to the latter, no one can be certain.
If the Cavaliers let (or force) LeBron to walk without a sign and trade, it will give them about $9.9M to play with in free agency this offseason. Right now I would be against the team signing anyone with that money because of the uncertainty surrounding the new CBA and the fact that star players come in the draft, not free agency. No one wants to hear this, but if LeBron leaves, the Cavs should be trying to get back into the lottery as soon as f’ing possible.
New Jersey Nets: $26.3M in cap space
I touched on this with the Bulls, but the Nets provide something else for James to consider - is he willing to give up maximum money (by this I mean a 6 year deal) and leave without a sign and trade so that the team he’s going to is able to keep all of its assets?
The numbers are close, for example, on the Nets giving the Cavaliers the following players for James:
Devin Harris: $9M
Yi Jianlian: $4M
Terence Williams: $2.2M
Courtney Lee: $1.4M
But then LeBron has to go to a New Jersey team that no longer has a point guard who was once an all star. And who knows what kinds of draft picks the Cavs might be able to force out of their trading partner, as well.
As many people have already written, we’re going to learn a lot about LeBron James in the window after July 1st.
I’ll be back on Monday to write about more potential sign and trade options with different teams.
Z plays his first game in Cleveland after re-signing with the Cavaliers. Cavs beat the Kings by 7.
Whatever.
We’ve seen this movie before. What’s more important at this stage of the season is that Coldstone figure out his rotations.
They are a disaster.
Now, tonight is not a perfect game to examine because Anderson Varejao was injured, which threw things further out of whack than they already are, with Shaq being out as well, and Z just coming back. It is clear, however, at this point - post-Jamison - that certain players and situations are, well, playing and being used a little bit differently.
Subject #1: Jamario Moon, who hasn’t played for a week.
Earlier in the season, when the Cavs were destroying the Lakers on Christmas Day and winning back-to-back road games in Miami and Orlando, Moon was a key component. His length bothered the opponent on the perimeter, particularly on closeouts at the 3P line. His athleticism was a great compliment to LeBron on the break. He rebounded exceptionally well (18.5 Defensive Rebounding Rate | 11.1 Total Rebounding Rate | LeBron is 18.3 and 11.1 respectively, just for the sake of comparison).
When was the last time Moon received significant minutes? March 14 against Boston. The Cavs won that game by 11.
Moon was often featured in the Cavs end game line-up, playing the 3 in a front court with Bron at the 4 and Andy at the 5. Over the course of the season that lineup, with Delonte and Mo in the backcourt has an Adjusted +/- of +21.76.
Recently, Coldstone seems to be experimenting with playing Jamison at the 3. I’m struggling to understand this decision, based on the idea that Jamsion was added because the Cavs needed a player who could stretch the floor from the 4 position.
So why play Antawn at the 3?
Tonight, this decision resulted in LeBron playing the 2 for a period of time … which was more confusing.
Meanwhile, Nocioni was lighting up the Cavs from behind the 3P line, but Moon couldn’t get off the bench, despite the fact that he was signed in part to run out and contest the shots of long perimeter players like … Andreas Nocioni.
On Friday, while Manu Ginobli was torching the Cavs in every direction … Moon was stuck making “Gooseys” thirty feet from the scorer’s table.
This wouldn’t be as bothersome if we hadn’t seen how effective Moon was against the money teams earlier on.
The playoffs are coming and the money teams are coming back.
One additional product of the Jamison trade is that Bron is playing a less time at the 4. Again, before the trade, the Cavs’ best lineup - according to APM - was with LeBron playing the 4.
Mo-Delonte-Parker-Bron-Andy: +61.58.
We’re dealing with small sample sizes, for sure, but it’s definitely something to consider. To be fair, the Varejao-Jamison-Bron-Parker-West line-up is currently the Cavs’ 7th best at +28.77 … so it’s not exactly a bad thing, just not as good of a thing.
Subject #2: Mo Williams
Mo, frankly, has looked terrible of late. Tonight, he was 2-6. He missed both shots he took from behind the arc. While he did have 7 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 steal, he also delivered 4 turnovers and came up with only 2 rebounds.
Mo, as we’ve all seen, is not a traditional point guard. He’s a (streaky) score-first guard who functions best playing off of LeBron or Delonte. Since the addition of Jamison, Mo has not seemed to be himself. He is shooting only 40.7% from the field and 38.2% from 3P. He’s taking 1.8 shots less per game and making 1 less.
So what is the overall effect?
Surprisingly, Mo is +6 in March, in comparison to +4 for the entire season.
Funny, right? Is it possible that a streaky Mo is actually a better fit for the Cavs when he’s taking less shots and more efficient players like Varejao and Hickson are getting more touches?
It is very possible.
A side note: Mo is a slightly more efficient shooter than Jamison. 53.8% eFG% (accounting for 3P shots being worth more) versus 51.0% eFG%.
The ultimate ramifications, I suppose, won’t be clear until the playoffs. If anything is certain, it seems that the Cavs are much more prepared to deal with Mo missing shots in the post-season this year than they were last year.
Milwaukee on Wednesday. The playoffs are near.
