We use stats in a lot of our posts on JMID for reasons I shouldn’t necessarily have to explain but will anyway. They’re a great way to validate or invalidate our own perceptions, which can often be tricked by extremes, e.g. Glitch mishandling a perfect pass from Bron may make me want to criticize him more than Shaq getting called for offensive three seconds - but really, both plays hold more or less the same value. Additionally, stats can be quite disruptive to widely accepted beliefs that have little or no basis in reality, like the presumption by some in Cleveland that Mo Williams should’ve been an All-Star this season because the Cavs had the best record in the NBA at the break. Since we’re not exactly writing this blog to cooperate with the general consensus or to support the average opinion, stats can be great tools for us.
Most of all, they are based in logic and science, and not the irrational emotions that often emerge from fandom. We’re trying to kill the hysteria of the curse.
Stats help man the guillotine.
(They may also be the underlying reason the Cleveland Plain Dealer still refuses to cite us in their morning sports blog round-up, but I digress.)
There’s one more, very important, point to make on this, and that is that stats always have to be looked at intelligently (saying something like “the Cavs are 35-5 when three or more players score at least 15 points” proves nothing) and in context (rebound rate is more telling than rebounds per minute is more telling than rebounds per game).
Which is why the ‘09-‘10 Knicks are a complete clusterfuck.
Why?
Job psychology.
People who study statistics will tell you that, overall, numbers for basketball players are much more consistent from year-to-year than they are in other sports like football and baseball. Age and injury are the two biggest reasons given for large discrepancies in players’ stats; I would argue that things like fit and shot selection also play a role in smaller variations from one season to the next (Mo Williams never shot above 38.5% from 3P until he played alongside LeBron; since then, he’s hit 43.6% and 43.2% of his attempts from long distance while also taking more attempts per 36 minutes than ever before).
After watching tonight’s game, I have a new probable cause for statistical variance: Donnie Walsh’s strategy to clear cap space for the summer of 2010.
Can you imagine going to work every day knowing that the front office doesn’t give a damn how well you play because, in their mind, your best trait is that your contract expires after the season? Would this make you play hard? Would it make you want to work on your game with your teammates? Would it make you want to listen to your coach?
I think it would make you feel like shit, personally, to wake up every day knowing, “Hey, nobody wants me to be here!”
We’d have to do a thorough analysis to prove this - and, problematically, the sample size isn’t incredibly large since, as far as I know, no one in the history of sport has pulled the cap space maneuver as drastically as Walsh has - but I think this is one of those cases where psychology will have an effect on his efficiency and production.
Cavs-Nets on Wednesday. I may have to be drunk for that one.
Continuing my series on the sordid realities of the teams vying for LeBron this summer, I want to take a look at the Knicks tonight. As you can probably surmise from the photo I’m pairing with this post, I don’t think much of their chances.
This is actually a much simpler analysis than my opening salvo on the Miami Heat. The reason is that the Knicks, to put it in the simplest terms, have cap space and almost literally nothing else.
As Joe Treutlein of Hoop Data details here, Donnie Walsh’s moves at the trade deadline give the Knicks enough cap space to sign two max free agents by the slimmest possible margin. Assuming a buy-out of Eddie Curry and a $53M cap, a mere $50,000 separates New York from joining the list of teams with room for only one max contract.
However, if Spike Lee has any iota of realism in him, he shouldn’t be dancing in the streets just yet. Why? Because to get to this zone, New York’s roster will be populated by these players:
Danilo Gallinari
Wilson Chandler
Toney Douglas
10 players making the league minimum
Without even getting into the performance of those three hold-overs from the 2009-10 season, think about this fact. Even if those players and the two max free agents actually fill out a workable staring line-up, literally every player coming off the New York bench will be making minimum money. Like Pat Riley, Donnie Walsh is therefore banking that quality role players around the league will voluntarily take less money so that they can play with whomever they get as their big-money stars.
As we’ve said over and over again, this is a terrible gamble. It was a bad gamble last summer, and I would argue that it’s an even worse gamble this upcoming summer due to the gathering storm clouds of a 2011 work-stoppage. Any player looking to sign a new deal this summer is going to be prioritizing dollar value more than ever before. So instead of a bench full of skilled role players, the Knicks are most likely going to end up with ten minimum salary guys in the truest “you get what you pay for” sense of the word.
This is a bigger problem than a lot of people want to recognize. LeBron and Dwyane Wade share something that none of the other major 2010 free agents do—they’ve both been to the Finals. LeBron got manhandled there. Wade (thanks to the greatest collection of phantom calls in league history) won. But both players are smart and experienced enough to understand the necessity of a good supporting cast to winning a championship.
“Supporting cast” as a phrase gets distorted pretty frequently, I think, to mean “1 or 2 other guys who can get 20-25 points.” But as people who really watch basketball know, there’s a lot more to it than that. You need shooters, gritty defenders, big men, “energy / hustle” players, rebounders, fighters. The Knicks’ chances of filling out a roster full of true complementary pieces using only the veteran’s minimum…they’re weak, especially in the first year. And LeBron knows it.
There’s a long debate that could be had about which is better: playing with one other star and a bunch of scrap, or no other stars but a roster full of reasonably priced, highly productive role players. A lot of it, I think, depends on how you define “better.” But I would argue forcefully that in the case of a superstar of LeBron’s capabilities, the latter option gives him the best odds of winning a title.
Might Donnie Walsh ultimately be able to build a complete team around LeBron? Yes. But how many years will it take? And with LeBron now used to a certain level of success (and hungry for the big prize), how appealing is the idea of waiting around for a couple of years to get a championship-ready team in place?
Even more importantly, is it even possible to build a championship team when it’s being coached by Mike D’Antoni, perhaps the least defensively minded coach in recent NBA history? I’ve heard analysts say that LeBron would love to play for him because D’Antoni would let LeBron run all game. Not only does Bron not care about running all game, he’s openly said over and over again that he knows defense is what wins championships. So why exactly is the D’Antoni / New York combo such a great fit for him?
So with a roster as unexciting as this, the other two crutches the New York fans / media fall back on are the dual myths of “New York as the Mecca of Basketball” and the “New York as Key to Endorsement Success.” The problem with the former is that it’s all hot air. As we’ve pointed out before, New York has won two NBA titles in their history—1970 and 1972—and since that time plenty of great players have been content to scratch their Madison Square Garden itch by coming into the building once a year and beating up on the home team.
The problem with the marketing myth is that it’s not even just hot air—it’s blatantly, factually false. Kenny Huang, the incoming minority owner of the Cavs, will give Bron the greatest possible inroad to the enormous market that is China. Even without Huang, James’s recent deal with McDonald’s already makes him the sport’s leader in endorsement money. As Kurt Badenhausen of Forbes reported when that deal was signed:
The McDonald’s deal should squelch any talk that James needs to leave Cleveland to be a big star with big endorsement deals. James is already a huge star and has multi-million deals with the biggest global brands in shoes (Nike), beverages (Coca-Cola) and now fast-food (McDonald’s). Knicks fans might want to start preparing for reality. LeBron doesn’t need New York to become a global icon. Cleveland will do just fine.
Couldn’t have said it better myself.
Prediction: Knicks overpay Rudy Gay and another second-tier free agent and follow the model of the mid-2000s Washington Wizards—perennial playoff team that goes nowhere. Donnie Walsh follows Joe Dumars in the ranks of “GMs that everyone finally realized were horrendously overrated.” Bron continues to play at MSG once a year in a way that drives Mike, my dad, and me crazy.
Tim, DAD, and I had an email exchange earlier today in which we discussed the rumors that the Knicks were looking to acquire Tracy McGrady from Houston in a three-way-deal that would also Caron Butler to Houston and Al Harrington to New York.
While I understand why Houston would want Butler and why the Wizards would take Harrington, this deal makes no sense to me from the Knicks’ perspective. Yes, McGrady has a huge expiring contract, but so does Harrington. As has been repeatedlyreported, unless the Knicks move Jared Jeffries and Eddy Curry, they won’t have enough money in the off-season to sign two max contract guys…
Which is essentially the only plan Donnie Walsh has put forward since he was brought in as GM.
“Wait until 2010…” he whispered to the fan base. “We will suck until then, but LeBron is coming.”
In the meantime, Donnie would rid the franchise of some terrible, long contracts that Isiah Thomas had burdened them with during his tenure. He’d free up enough money to sign not just LeBron but also Chris Bosh. And maybe he’d even find a way to bring in Dwyane Wade, too. Donnie would be Jesus, coming down off the cross, resurrected to become the savior of New York City, the “mecca of basketball.”
Well, some fucked up things happened along the way.
The salary cap dropped (it’s still dropping).
The Cleveland Cavaliers got really, really good.
The Knicks continued to suck.
Oh sure, Donnie moved Jamal Crawford and Zach Randolph - both of whom were then traded again (to ATL and MEM) - and are now having an impact on teams with far better records than the Knicks. But he hasn’t been able to deal Curry and Jeffries. He had a trade in place to move up to the 5 spot in last year’s draft, but he passed - why bother, neither of the two players Walsh coveted, Ricky Rubio and Stephen Curry, would be available then - oh wait, they actually were. He then chose Jordan Hill instead of Brandon Jennings (and actually Hill has been more productive so far than Jennings - but that pick just looks bad … and in NYC that counts). Then he refused to give David Lee and Nate Robinson anything more than one year deals, alienating both guys so that he could keep the plan in place.
Gotta have as much cap room as possible in place for the summer of 2010, after all.
Since LeBron and Chris Bosh would definitely want to come and play for a team that literally has only 6 players under contract (4 if Curry and Jeffries can be moved). Wouldn’t it be fun to fill out the roster with minimum salary guys? Isn’t that how you win championships? Two superstars and 10 scrubs?
What I’m driving at is one thing:
Donnie Walsh sold New York City and Knicks fans everywhere a dream.
He created an excuse to suck for multiple years.
And then he proceeded to watch his team suck.
While the Great D’Antonio coached for a ridiculous amount of money, a little more, of course, than he could have had in Chicago when the Bulls offered him a job.
And when 2010 comes and the Knicks sign nothing but a second tier free agent - Amar’e Stoudemire, I see you - maybe he’ll be able to sell the fans and the rest of the organization on the dream of 2011.
You know, when Carmelo Anthony becomes a free agent.
How long until Kevin Durant is available? I’m sure he won’t be able to stand playing in that puny Oklahoma City market for long. Can’t make money there.
Picture Walsh saying these words and lighting a cigar … and spending lots of time in April, May, and June on a yacht somewhere.
Typical Saturday night Brief Bazooka point. Tonight’s focus will be on David Lee.
Lee has very excellent individual stats. Last season his WP48 was .240 and he was responsible for about 14.1 of the Knicks 32 wins. This year, at the halfway point, Lee had a WP48 of .247 with 7.8 total wins produced.
As a barometer, .100 is average.
Lee’s PER was 19.0 last year and is 22.0 this season. 15.0 is average.
By advanced aggregate statistical measures David Lee is by far the best player on the Knicks.
How is it possible then that he was out of the game tonight when the Knicks made their run?
This is where defense matters.
Lee had a -12 tonight. Of course, he was on the floor for much of LeBron’s unconsciousness, so it makes sense that this number would be low. But when you look at Lee’s overall +/- numbers, you see a similar story.
Lee’s Adjusted +/- this year is -1.53
Using three years of data, his Regularized Adjusted +/- number is -1.624
On defense, he’s actually a +3.850 - meaning the Knicks give up an additional 3.850 points with him on the floor - or second worst on the entire team.
By contrast, a player like Al Harrington, who was on the floor while the Knicks made their run has a -2.105 defensive number … and a rating of -.014 when it comes to WP48.
In other words, defense matters.
But I will give David a lot of credit for what he yelled to Shaq during tonight’s game —
This, honestly, is the type of game I will try to remember if LeBron leaves the Cavs to sign with another team after July 1st, 2010. Despite excellent shooting (12-17 overall), this was a LeBron decides to be a score-first player game, like we’ve seen in the past when he plays at the Garden.
The idea of Bron showing off for a bunch of celebrities, including CC Sabathia, who despite never winning a championship anywhere other than NYC said to Doris Burke on the ESPN telecast that there’s “nothing like winning a championship in this city” is a pathetic one to me, laced with so many old media ideas about who and what matters that it’s embarrassing. After all, Penny Marshall was showcased in the crowd. Really?
Some of you know this, but I went to NYU and have an affinity for New York City, but the continual emphasis on its importance in a world that is becoming increasingly diverse thanks to the digital realm - a kid in Amherst, Ohio for example, can now know just as much about indie rock music as a kid going to shows in the East Village - is garbage. Let’s not forget that globally New York City is less meaningful than it was even 10 years ago because of the growth in India, China, and South America.
Also, back to reality, JJ Hickson started in place of Andy. I’m lukewarm on this move because Hickson isn’t a stretch the floor PF - he’s basically playing in the same position as Andy would, but at least his placement in the starting lineup prevented the Twin Towers look from rearing its ugly head…
Plus, Jamario Moon got playing time. Unfortunately, he didn’t do much during his 14 minutes, but the coaches need to use him more as a slasher and find a way for him not to catch the ball on the perimeter where he’s prone to jacking up outside shots that are not 3 pointers. Instead, find ways for him to finish at the rim, where he’s excellent.
Not much more to say at the moment because it’s hard to measure much of anything against the Knicks who were shooting 20% points less than the Cavs at the end of the 1st half (37% versus 57%). This is the definition of how you lose ball games. Sadly, I would have preferred to see Bron help his team get better instead of taking the one-man-show route (7 TO’s is unacceptable), but this was the Garden and the Cavs will let Bron get away with murder, in general. On the other hand, I don’t know how a team even tests their offense against the Knicks defense, which was just horrible.
Orlando on Wednesday. I don’t have high hopes for this game, but if the Cavs can find a way to win we’ll forget a lot of the negative things we’ve been writing about over the past week and a half. See you guys then.
