Earlier today, something happened that convinced me that I had to temporarily suspend my 2010 cap reality series. Considering that I thoroughly enjoy attacking the myths involved in those free agency rumors, you might guess that what threw me off course involves an equal level of absurdity.
If so, you’d be absolutely correct. Because this afternoon, Hoops Hype’s Roland Lazenby posted an article stating that “one of [his] best inside sources, a close [Phil] Jackson associate” had slipped him the info that LeBron has made “overtures” to the organization that he unequivocally wants to be a Laker starting this summer.
Of all the ridiculous rumors spawned thanks to this topic, this one is my favorite. All of the others involve one of a list of ridiculous elements: disregard for financial reality, distortion of LeBron’s personality, and unwillingness to consider the info source. This Lakers myth takes each and every one of those and ties them up together into a single package.
First, let’s look at the dollar signs. According to Hoops Hype’s breakdown, the Lakers are currently committed* to a team payroll of $83.9M for the 2010-11 season. You may recall that I’ve been basing my cap reality series on a $53M salary ceiling for next year, since every expert I’ve read feels relatively confident that the actual number will hover around that figure. If we stick with that assumption, basic subtraction tells us that the Lakers salary commitments put them just about $30.9M—or 58.3%—over the projected cap. So there’s no way in Hell that the Lakers can get to a point where signing Bron straight up is anything other than a fantasy.
I put the * in the above paragraph to note the one caveat. Though for some reason Hoops Hype doesn’t show it, Kobe has a player option for the 2010-11 season. Theoretically, this means that he could opt out of his deal and bring the Lakers a lot closer to getting out of the tax. However, Kobe’s 2010-11 salary is slated to be $24.8M. Even if the specter of a 2011 lock-out wasn’t haunting every player in the league right now, there is literally no way that anyone would ever voluntarily walk away from $24.8M for one season’s worth of work. The idea is patently insane. So let’s not kid ourselves that Kobe’s going anywhere. Even if he did, the Lakers’ payroll would still only drop to $59.1M, meaning they still wouldn’t have any room to sign Bron unless he was willing to take the bi-annual exception.
This means that the only way that LeBron could ever make it onto the Lakers would be via sign-and-trade. Again, based off a $53M cap, the first year of Bron’s upcoming max contract would be $16.56M. As far as I can tell, the only sign and trade that would work financially for both sides would be Bron for Andrew Bynum and (ironically) Shannon Brown. Theoretically, yes, it could be done. But it would also mean that the Lakers would be committed to ~$58M in payroll for a total of five players in the 2011-12 season (assuming there is such a thing). Barring huge gains by the league between now and then, the team would already be over the cap again, then would either have to re-sign Kobe for another massive contract on top of it, or let him walk…and then fill out the rest of the roster with minimum salary players. All of this despite that Jerry Buss has been going guns out in negotiations since last summer to try to bust down salaries as much as possible (see: the Trevor Ariza exodus and Lamar Odom showdown).
The five guys under contract in that scenario could be dangerous, but to call them a juggernaut is a little extreme. Bron, Pau, a 32 year-old Lamar Odom, a 32 year-old Ron Artest, Sasha Vujacic, and Luke Walton? Hardly dynasty material. And considering that the source emphasizes that Bron doesn’t care whether Kobe’s on the team or not, then that’s the roster that he supposedly wants to make this move to play with.
The picture gets even stranger when you look beyond the numbers.
Lazenby’s source implies that the main reason Bron wants to make this move to LA is to play for Phil Jackson. If you’re keeping track, this raises the list of coaches that LeBron feels he HAS to play for to 4. The previous entries are Mike Kryzewski, Mike D’Antoni, and Pat Riley. In all cases, these wild conclusions are drawn thanks to a fundamental and misunderstood element of Bron’s personality: his compulsion to praise and be praised. No one in the NBA is quicker to give out compliments than LeBron, and naturally, his game and the way he conducts himself off the court make him a coach’s dream. Is it plausible that Bron has told each and every one of these men that he would love to play for them in the NBA? Absolutely. But does it really mean anything? I’m skeptical, to put it mildly.
As Lazenby’s article goes on to detail, though, the problem is that Phil Jackson isn’t necessarily coaching the Lakers next year. Instead, he’s battling the front office over the size and length of his contract, with the threat that he’ll walk if his demands aren’t met—just like he did to the Bulls in 1998. Lazenby writes that Phil has a burning desire to win another title in 2010-11 because he anticipates a work stoppage in 2011-12. If the Lakers don’t bend to his will, then he’ll pack up and coach elsewhere next year, bringing LeBron with him. (Brace yourself for this out-of-left-field bomb: the Knicks are mentioned as the strongest possibility(!).)
This is where the “consider the source” idea comes into play.
Lazenby spends a lot of time in the article comparing the Phil / Bulls / 1998 scenario to the Phil / Lakers / 2010 scenario. In the comparison, he recounts some of the many ways Phil has sought leverage in negotiations. In ‘98, Jordan uncharacteristically came out in vocal support of Phil. At the time, Phil had to have seen this as a major bargaining chip. (“The greatest player in the world wants me to coach his team next year, Reinsdorf. Now, about that lucrative extension…”) Ultimately, it failed. The Bulls dug in their heels, Phil quit, and Jordan looked like the sucker. Lazenby speculates that this is part of the reason that Kobe hasn’t followed Jordan’s example and publicly come out in Phil’s corner: he doesn’t want to be burned the same way Jordan was burned.
The great irony here, though, is that Lazenby seems to be completely ignorant of the fact that this anecdote completely undermines the story he’s writing about LeBron.
Remember, Lazenby’s source for the info about LeBron’s deep desire to be a Laker isn’t a “close LeBron James associate.” He’s a “close [Phil] Jackson associate.” Who happens to be playing hardball with his team’s ownership over a fat new coaching contract extension for next year? That would be Phil Jackson. Who happens to be the greatest player in the world right now? Depending on who you ask, it’s either Kobe or LeBron. (Obviously, it’s LeBron to anyone with an ounce of basketball sense or objectivity, but you know how this goes.) Which one of those two players is coached by Phil Jackson but isn’t willing to vocally come out to support his embattled coach? That would be Kobe.
So if you’re Phil Jackson, and you can’t get your own team’s superstar to support your cause, what’s the best bargaining chip you have available? How about starting a rumor that the most spectacular basketball talent on Earth (who just happens to be a free agent at the same time that your contract ends) wants to play for you on the team you want to continue coaching? Does this sound familiar to anything else Phil has done? (“The greatest player in the world wants me to coach this team next year, Buss. Now, about that lucrative extension…”)
This is a brilliant PR move on Phil’s part. Not only does it drive the Lakers’ fan base into hysterical support for him and this fevered orgasm of what the 2010-11 Lakers could be, but there’s no way for the rumor to be killed. True to his word, Bron has remained silent on his free agent plans since the fall. So it’s not as if he’s going to come out and shoot down this piece of gossip. Instead, the fantasy can run wild through the Hollywood Hills, into the Lakers front office, straight to the desk of Dr. Jerry Buss. I imagine someone fed him Lazenby’s article within 2 minutes of its appearance on Hoops Hype. The question is whether Buss was able to see past the masterful smokescreen Phil laid down.
Sadly for we Cavs fans, though, it’s a foregone conclusion that most of the rest of the NBA junkies who read it, weren’t.
-T
