June 18, 2010
Good Night to the 2009-10 Season

I originally wanted to look at all of the Finals stats and see if, averaged out over the 7 games, this series was really as wacky as it kept looking game to game. But as of right now (11:14 PM PT), none of our usual go-to sites for numbers has the game 7 stats live yet.  So instead, I’m just going to address the larger question that these playoffs have now raised for me. I expect it’s one I’ll be exploring in some capacity in the blog next season. 

I can say with certainty that I learned more about the game of basketball in the course of the past year than I’ve ever learned about any sport in my life. Despite all of it, though, this post-season surprised me time and again. I don’t think I’m alone in that. But I also think that until I had that knowledge base, I couldn’t fully understand the magnitude of the difference between the regular season and the playoffs. Orlando riding a ridiculously efficient 3 point shooting streak from game 7 of the 2009 East semifinals through a six-game ECF was one thing; the Celtics resurrecting themselves from the land of the dead (see: the 4 seed in the East), tearing through the overall #1 (Cavs) and #2 seed (Magic) only to miss the title by a scant 4 points in the seventh game of the Finals against the overall #3 seed…that’s entirely another.

The aspect of this that I’m grappling with is my level of belief in advanced statistics. Or really, a better way of putting it would be that I’m trying to figure out the degree to which I should apply advanced stats in my thinking about the game, and the degree to which they should be counter-balanced by “intangibles,” or elements that sabermetricians haven’t yet figured out a way to quantify.

There are certainly some things in the playoffs that worked as we would’ve expected. For instance, LAL and Boston were both in the top 10 in efficiency differential and the top 6 in defensive efficiency. The fact that they ended up in the Finals isn’t necessarily shocking—especially when you consider the hospital ward full of injuries that the Cs experienced over the course of the season. 

On the other hand, things like Derek Fisher—a guy who rated below average all season in almost every advanced statistical category—being a legitimate difference-maker throughout the playoffs, were much more surprising.

Of course, the go-to counter-argument for any stat geek is that this is just another example of randomness. Because of the much smaller number of games involved, the playoffs can begin at any peak or valley in a player’s performance. But part of the reason that I chose Fisher to use as the above example is that historically, he is in fact a better player in the playoffs than the regular season. (If you don’t believe me, compare his career regular season advanced stats with his career playoff ones here.)

This raises a potentially interesting question: if stat heads can show evidence of a difference in play between the regular and post-seasons for individuals, how do we reconcile those in terms of our expectations for teams come playoff time?  Does it also suggest that we should be trying to figure out some kind of team playoff statistics to help in our post-season evaluations? This would be a difficult task since personnel can be a revolving door from one year to the next, but there may be a way to combine individual players’ post-season stats—or at least those of the core players—to try to determine if there’s likely to be a difference in the entire franchise come playoff time.

On some level, what I’m saying is that advanced stats are great, but their value is clearly diminished in my eyes when it comes playoff time. The regular season is definitely not irrelevant, but not everything is going to carry over straight off the same stat sheet that described the previous 82 games. There’s always a deeper level you can examine, and I’m a little disappointed in myself for not looking at more of the mitigating factors. Then again, this is why I don’t gamble. 

However, one of my long-held beliefs was reinforced with steel thanks to these Finals. Part of the reason I have always hated the sports franchises of Boston so much is that even in the rare instances where I am rooting for them, they still manage to fuck me. The 2009-10 Finals is another notch on their belt in that regard. Thanks for keeping tradition alive, Celtics.

PS: One final thought - if you know anyone planning on rallying for LeBron James this weekend, tell them to stay home. Even Buzz Bissinger is sick of his shit.

-T

1:01am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/710809076/good-night-to-the-2009-10-season
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FILED UNDER: NBA Stats LeBron 
June 16, 2010
Reptile in Chains(?)

In the Cavs’ front office tonight, one simple question sums up the past week and a half of work on their coaching search and their increasingly futile efforts (or so it seems) to re-sign LeBron.

“Now what?”

As everyone knows by now, Tom Izzo announced at a press conference on Tuesday evening that he has rejected Reptile’s “framework” offer of $30MM over 5 years, unlimited use of a private jet, “on demand” baths in liquid platinum, a swimming pool filled with gold coins a la Scrooge McDuck, and who knows what else, to coach the Cavs.

CBS Sports’s Ken Berger wrote earlier that LeBron has now effectively locked the entire franchise into a cryogenic chamber until at least July 1. He argues that no “name” coaching candidate (and potentially no coaching candidate period) will ink a deal with the team until James’s status is known. Furthermore, even the team’s attempts to get back into next Thursday’s draft are handcuffed by not knowing for sure which players should be traded away, given that the centerpiece of the team is a question mark.

This last notion is one that I want to focus on—the reason being that I don’t totally buy it. (Of course, this may be because I have the luxury of being a fan / observer with no consequences attached to my thinking, aside from occasionally embarrassing myself in print on this blog. But hear me out.)

Consider the Cavs’ current roster for next year for a moment. Done? Good. Here’s my question:  apart from Andy, should anyone on that list really be untouchable?

To me, the answer is a resounding “no.”

This is the cold truth that the organization has to face up to: the Cavs have to proceed as if they’re in a rebuilding mode, regardless of whether or not James comes back. Why? Because either way, it doesn’t change the fact that the current roster will still be deficient on a foundational level. Mo Williams will still be an undersized, streaky, score-first point guard who collapses in the playoffs. Antawn Jamison will still be a supposed stretch 4 who doesn’t shoot well from midrange or long range and acts as a complete sieve on D. Delonte West will be traded regardless of James’s final decision. Boobie Gibson will still be an awesome catch-and-shoot player who brings little else to the table. Glitch will still be, well, Glitch—although his continued flubs have me on the verge of upgrading him to something like Permanent Fatal Error.

The rest of the roster consists of two categories:  capable role players (Moon*, Parker, Powe) whose value from a productivity standpoint is high in relation to their salary, and a couple of young guys who *could* grow into starters or sixth men (Danny Green and Sebastian Telfair) if they continue to develop.

(*Note: As we’ve stated over and over again, Moon’s advanced stats really suggest that he should be a starter, or should play starter’s minutes. But I’m lumping him in the ‘role player’ category because that’s the perception of him around the league, as far as I can tell.)

In fact, it’s arguable that the team’s most flawed players happen to double as their worst contracts. I would contend that Jamison has more value from a production standpoint than Mo, but I’m not concerned about comparisons. Antawn’s absolute value is somewhere far south of $28.4MM over the next 2 years, and that’s the issue. In either case, the player in question should still have value to other teams in the league. Dealing either (or preferably both) of them for some mixture of cap relief, draft picks, or younger players should really be a no-brainer.

This leads me to the other part of the equation: with or without James, the only sound solution for the Cavs is to get younger. Regardless of whether he was hamstrung from above or below, the Danny Ferry era proved conclusively that as executed, the “win now with veterans” strategy did not work. Repeating it would be disastrous. Finding lower-level veterans to fill in around your young assets never appears to be that difficult, and the difference in marginal value between a “really good” veteran versus an “average” or “decent” veteran is much smaller than the gulf between having a promising young core versus, well, not. 

Finally, because of LeBron’s ability to play multiple positions, it’s pretty hard to argue that the Cavs wouldn’t be able to figure out where to upgrade. Although his ability to switch between playing 3 and 4 leaves the forward spots open to some potential redundancy if the Cavs were to try to upgrade there, both guard spots are gaping holes, and finding a legitimate center—i.e. one capable of guarding Da-Wight, which Andy can’t do—would also be a pretty clear victory.

Look, even though I now think he’s an asshole, a liar, and a complete prima donna, LeBron James is really, really good at basketball. More to the point, he’s both extremely versatile and phenomenal at elevating the play of his teammates. If Chris Grant and Reptile do the reconstruction right, it’s entirely plausible that the Cavs would still be a playoff team next season and a contender again another year or two after that. LeBron’s own play and The James Effect on his teammates are that huge.

So if they’re thinking about things clearly, the front office has to recognize:

1) The Cavs can’t win a championship with Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison as key components of their core

2) Assuming the right moves are made, trading those players now lowers the team’s ceiling for the next season or two but raises it dramatically after that

3) While some of the other players on the team are a good or great value for the money, it’s bad business to hold onto them if it kills a deal for a potential young star (even if it’s in the form of a high draft pick)

4) There are at least 3 positions (1, 2, and 5) where the Cavs could use a serious upgrade

5) All of the above are true with or without LeBron

Clearly, I’m simplifying here. There are other considerations, such as which type of players will be benefited by the new coach’s system. But Berger is right: it’s now a foregone conclusion that the coaching search won’t be concluded until July. With the draft now 8 days away, it’s potentially disastrous for the front office to freeze on trades until that same period. (Realistically, a good coach will figure out how to best utilize the abilities of the roster he’s given anyway. He can then work with the front office in the future to refine it.)

Reptile and Chris Grant may not have a clear view of LeBron’s plans, but there is enough else on their roster that’s definite enough to construct a strategy. Whether or not they choose to be imprisoned by James’s chess game is ultimately on them.

-T 

12:32am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/703790627/reptile-in-chains
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FILED UNDER: NBA Cavs LeBron 2010 Free Agency Izzo Tom Izzo Dan Gilbert 
June 14, 2010
A Couple of Points About Izzo

As everyone who follows the Cavs already knows, Tom Izzo still hasn’t given ownership a thumbs up or thumbs down regarding the head coaching offer prepared by Reptile. Earlier today, Woj posted this article re: the source of the hold-up. In it, he makes a couple of points that I wanted to address briefly.

1) Izzo’s hesitation stems from his lack of certainty over who in the Cavs organization still has a relationship with LeBron

I just have this question: considering that Danny Ferry and Mike Brown were supposedly run out of the city by LeBron’s unspoken wishes, who in the organization EVER had a relationship with him? As far as I can tell, there are three potential answers here. First, some of the other players on the roster. The problem here is that this has nothing to do with the front office. It could also potentially be a landmine if Chris Grant and/or Reptile rule LeBron’s friendships on the roster out of the equation when making personnel moves this summer—which, for the record, I believe they should absolutely do. 

The second answer is LeBron’s pre-existing friends, i.e. the guys who were given jobs with the team because LeBron wanted them to have jobs with the team. Randy Mims, the renowned “player liaison,” is at the forefront of this group. But this answer doesn’t provide any comfort for Izzo (or fans clinging to James), since all of these jokers would just as easily be given the same jobs and perks at whatever new team LeBron decided he wanted to play for.

The third answer is the assistant coaches who have been retained. Chris Jent, Mike Malone, Melvin Hunt. This seems like the most substantive and logical answer. Jent, of course, has been traveling and working with James year-round since at least this last summer, a kind of promotion from the heavy in-season work he was conducting with James in previous seasons. Keeping Jent and the others on staff was one of the savvier moves I’ve seen Reptile make in this whole chess game. Ultimately, it may not make much of a difference. Although I would guess that LeBron does in fact have a relationship and some loyalty to these coaches, I don’t think either is strong enough to prevent him from jumping ship on its own. This isn’t Manny Ramirez, who was reportedly so taken aback when he found out that he couldn’t take the Tribe’s trusted equipment manager with him after he signed with Boston (because, you know, the guy was still employed by the Indians) that he considered trying to rescind the contract.

But as our old friend B-Dub reports, at this point, it sounds like Izzo’s best bet in the guessing game of who has inroads to James may be to look in the mirror. But that’s still far from a guarantee that James will return.

2) One of the main reasons Izzo is seriously considering the jump to the NBA is his frustration with Michigan State’s inability to recruit elite talent

This is a huge red flag in my book. I really wish it wasn’t, but it is. The reason is that, as I’ve written before, it’s arguable that Cleveland is the least appealing NBA city in the league. Admittedly, I don’t think this is a fair assessment. Even without James, the Cavs have an owner willing to spend, world-class practice facilities, a (supposedly) highly regarded young GM in Chris Grant, and the minor name cache that has come with their continued regular season success the past several years. Compare that to, say, Detroit, where the team is being offered for sale, the GM has earned a well-deserved reputation as a complete bumbler, and the city itself is in even worse shape than Cleveland. I’d rather play for the Cavs, but perception is reality.

Let’s also not lose sight of the fact that even if the Cavs aren’t the least appealing franchise in the NBA, they’re nowhere near the top. Short of a complete transformation of the city’s economy, there’s very little that’s ever going to change that. We’ve all seen free agents pass over the Cavs to take equal money elsewhere (for recent entries, see: Artest, Ron and Ariza, Trevor). I maintain that LeBron’s unwillingness to give the team a long-term commitment has played a large part in their inability to recruit better. But when it comes to pitching the team to potential new players, the reality is that the Cavaliers are in an even worse bargaining position than Michigan State is in the NCAA. If this is really one of Izzo’s main frustrations with his current gig, he should think  long and hard about this particular alternative before he decides it’s really going to be any different.

Of course, if LeBron chooses to stay with the Cavs long-term, that changes the entire equation. But if Izzo’s being honest with himself, the above reasons make it less than difficult to imagine why Reptile’s lucrative offer continues to give him pause.

-T

12:43am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/696746087/a-couple-of-points-about-izzo
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FILED UNDER: Cavaliers Cavs LeBron LeBron James Tom Izzo Coaching 
June 6, 2010
Goodbye Danny Ferry, You Were Never Even Allowed to Overrule Your Own Player

As we all know by now, The Great Danny Ferry resigned his post as Cavs’ GM Friday morning. Dan Gilbert saw fit to promote Chris Grant to take over, and Lance Blanks will apparently stay on in an expanded role as well.

As I’ve pointed out previously (see the re-post a couple slots below), Ferry walked into the job in extremely unenviable circumstances. I would argue that the “championship or bust” mentality cultivated by Dan Gilbert over the course of the past few years raised the stakes even further.

In fact, this is one of the things that I believe makes it difficult for those of us on the outside to evaluate Ferry’s performance as GM. Despite that his contract supposedly granted him full power in all personnel decisions, we have to keep in mind that Gilbert was the one setting the tone. If the mandate from Ferry’s boss was “win now,” it’s hard for me to lay the mistakes made in the service of that goal completely at Ferry’s doorstep. Especially when sources have openly stated that LeBron had—and more importantly, exercised—veto power on personnel moves.

On top of that, Woj’s article yesterday made the case (via a friend of Ferry’s) that Ferry has been “miserable” in Cleveland the past two years. The root of the friction was LeBron’s influence—not just in the personnel department, but in the small areas. The pre-game skits. The hiring of James’s friends, such as Randy Mims as “player liaison.” In short, the culture of permissiveness enabled by Dan Gilbert. It ran counter in every manner to the “Spur Way” that Ferry believed in and tried to implement.

All of this raises the question: How do you evaluate the performance of a guy forced into a strategy he may not have agreed with when he didn’t even have complete autonomy to try to execute said strategy?

Frankly, I’m not sure.

As the Cavs move forward, the most interesting (and revealing) thing is one that fans will never really get a chance to see: the behind-the-scenes stability of the organization. We as fans didn’t see Gilbert passing notes to Paul Silas about substitutions (as Woj argues happened), or any number of other ways in which Gilbert tried to insert himself into the process. If Ferry was really responsible for putting a stop to these types of shenanigans, his absence will make a bigger difference than any of us will be able to see on a game-to-game basis.

In theory, this entire strategy has been geared toward keeping LeBron. But in the event that he bolts anyway, don’t we have to expect that this same policy will apply to any star player the Cavs try to sign or draft while Gilbert owns the team?

The irony in all of it is that up to now, Gilbert’s ownership style and performance has been praised as one of the primary reasons for the Cavs’ continued success and transformation into a “world class organization.” The more we find out about it, though, the more it begins to seem as if it may have been Ferry’s management style that prevented the Cavs from becoming a complete circus act.

With Chris Grant at the helm—in name, anyway—we may find out.

Buckle up, Cavs fans. It’s going to be a wild ride.

-T

8:00pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/671764034/goodbye-danny-ferry-you-were-never-even-allowed-to
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FILED UNDER: Danny Ferry LeBron Cavs NBA 
June 2, 2010
“The Summit”: Strategy, Fantasy & Reality

Here are three words I never want to hear in sequence again: Free. Agent. Summit.

It probably goes without saying that I’m referring to the fabled meeting of the minds first advertised by Dwyane Wade about a week ago—a not-so-secret session where the supposed best and brightest of the 2010 free agent class (James, Wade, and Joe Johnson) would hold court over what the future would hold for all of them when the Summer of Money officially begins on July 1.

First, Chris Bosh wasn’t mentioned as having a seat at the table. Then, a source made clear that the RuPaul of Big Men would be involved.

Then Amar’e—likely at the behest of his agent, the one and only Happy Walters—verified that he would be there. After all, how could a guy angling for a max contract be seen as outside of this particular circle? 

In his upcoming Larry King interview, LeBron confirmed King’s intuition that he was the “ringleader” of the group, and by logical extension, the key note speaker at the most important conference since the G8.

Meanwhile, sports pundits such as Mike Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser advocated for other “major” free agents, such as Carlos “Last Time I Was in This Situation I Stabbed a Blind Guy in the Back” Boozer, to join the talks as well.

Then Tuesday, Wade’s agent denied the “summit” was happening in any kind of formal way, likely because such a meeting would be perhaps the only clear-cut case of player collusion in league history.

My point is, there have already been hundreds of stories written on this thing by hundreds of sportswriters. Most of them, from what I can tell, are viewing it in the most grandiose possible terms. Phrases like “a meeting that will determine the future of the league” or “a redrawing of the NBA map” are being used regularly.

And even though I began this entire post thinking I couldn’t be any more tired of hearing about this thing, recapping all of that just took me to a whole new level of exhaustion.

So in the usual JMID attempt to cut through the smoke screen and see if there’s any actual fire, here’s a brief primer on why the “free agent summit” is the most overhyped, overestimated non-story of the 2010 offseason.

Point 1A) The core group of these guys (James, Wade, Bosh) are friends

Point 1B) All three are now repped by CAA

CBS Sports’s Ken Berger covered the agency story at length right after it happened. Definitely worth a read if you want more of the gory details.

The gist, though, is this: because of their friendship and the joint affiliation of their agents, the three players at the top of every team’s list were going to be working in tandem anyway. Whether this ultimately happened in a conference room at CAA or via a series of conference calls, it’s not going to change the outcome. James, Wade, and Bosh will plan their attack together.

Point 2) The expansion of the ‘summit’ to include more players is inconsequential

Free agency is a line of dominos that begins with LeBron and Wade, then goes to Bosh, and then trickles down to the rest of the available free agents. Until those first two decide where they want to play, the rest of the market is going to be a glacier. It’s only logical. Are the Clippers going to call ahead and offer Amar’e a max contract if LeBron is still in play? Are the Bulls going to hammer out a deal with Joe Johnson if Wade’s signature isn’t on a contract in Mickey Arison’s office? Uh, no. So the idea that even if this summit were to happen, these guys are going to sit around and carve up the NBA landscape like they’re playing a game of Risk is completely ignorant of how business works.

Even if this meeting were to happen in its most grandiose, inclusive form, what’s going to happen? Is Carlos Boozer going to dial up Donnie Walsh and say, “So the guys and I all talked, and we decided that you’re going to sign me.” Walsh’s reaction would be something on the order of, “Uh, thanks Carlos. But I already have a high-scoring, high-rebounding power forward who can’t play a lick of defense that I could re-sign for less. I’ll get back to you.”

Look, deal-making is a two-way street. It’s ludicrous to think that the owners and GMs of the league are going to just have the courses of their franchise dictated to them by a bunch of over-excited employees with nothing to do but daydream until July 1st. 

This is even more true when you consider that…

Point 3A) The number of teams with max cap space is a known quantity

Point 3B) None of these guys is taking less than a max contract

For whatever reason, a collective of sports pundits still seem to buy that some subset of these players will decide to take less money to play on a veritable All-Star team. This seems to be the real fantasy of the people talking up “the summit.”

To those of you who believe it, please, just stop. It’s getting embarrassing.

Regardless of whether or not they deserve max contracts, every big-name free agent this summer has a max ego. They have all convinced themselves that they can go somewhere else and make that franchise a champion. Obviously, it’s not going to work out that way. But perception, after all, is reality.

I don’t think that any player mentioned in connection to the summit has the self-awareness or the priorities to say, “What I really care the most about is winning. I can’t do it with just a bunch of role players, so I’m going to voluntarily turn down a max deal being offered to me by my existing team so I can jump ship to not only be a sidekick to one of these other guys, but be PAID like a sidekick to do it.” At least, not when we’re talking about a delta of tens of millions of dollars.

Don’t believe me? To review, here are the teams that are projected to be able to offer max contracts, along with the number of such contracts they can offer:

MIA: 2

NYK: 2

NJ: 1

CHI: 1

LAC: 1

WASH: 1

MIN: 1

OKC: 1

SAC: 1

Total: 11

TIER 1, a.k.a. Players who justifiably “deserve” the max:  LeBron, Wade, Bosh

Total Tier 1 players: 3

TIER 2, a.k.a. Players who *think* they deserve the max:  Joe Johnson, Amar’e, Boozer, Dirk, Rudy Gay, David Lee

Total Tier 2 players: 6

In short, even if you combine both of those two tiers, there’s too much money coming from too many sources for any of them to seriously consider turning it down in order to load up on one team. And that’s using a break-down that doesn’t even include the teams that can use the Bird Exception to re-sign their own free agent. So not only could Amar’e get a max contract from, say, Miami, he could get a BIGGER max contract to stay in Phoenix and play with Nash and a bunch of other guys that just got him to Western Conference Finals.

The bottom line is that unless you’re talking about the ’92 Olympics, the Dream Team concept is fiction.

Of course, if this huge meeting were to happen, some of these guys might be able to convince themselves in the moment that they’re willing to sacrifice, willing to try to be great. But then there’s this problem…

Point 4) When they leave the room, all bets are off

It’s easy to get wrapped up in the emotion of  a moment, in camaraderie, in talking about what ifs. But no contracts are being signed in that room. Which means that “the summit” has to adjourn, and everyone in on it has to go home.

This is the place where grand ambitions have a tendency to fade away—not in the moment among others, but in the quiet with your own thoughts.  

These players are all grown men. Most of them have families, some of them large families. They have a lifestyle they’ve grown accustomed to. They know the world’s economy is fucked up, and they know the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement is going to make this offseason potentially the last enormously profitable one (for players) in the history of the sport. 

It’s one thing for these guys to say while they’re in the room with their boys, “Yeah, screw it. I’m gonna be bold. I’m a man. I’ll take less money so we can play together on one of the great teams of all time.”

It’s entirely another for those same guys to go home and say it to their wives, the mothers of their children, and their agents—who, let’s not forget, are paid based on a percentage of what their clients make.

How many wives are going to say, “Great, baby, you take that pay cut to be 2nd or 3rd in command! The kids and I are really looking forward to uprooting ourselves and starting over in a completely new part of the country so we can cut back.”? 

How many agents are going to say, “Absolutely, killer. I would love for you to garnish my own wages so that you can maybe get a couple of trophies for team achievement that mean nothing to my life. Please, by all means, take the mid-level exception and reduce your own stats in the process so you can cripple your next contract too.”

In short, the summit is a grand idea. But even if it were to actually happen, it’s still a fantasy land. Reality hits when the players leave that room. And reality takes the wheel in most financial decisions.

As I think about it now, some part of me wishes that this summit would happen—but only if the players were to stick to the promises they made each other in that room. I wish that some of them would sacrifice money for a chance at greatness, a chance at a dream they’ve all had since they were kids. Part of me wishes that they would defy what’s in their best monetary interest in order to create something truly special, truly memorable, truly inspirational. As a fan, that would mean something to me. It would mean more to me as grown man chasing after my own dreams. I expect it would mean even more to thousands of kids on blacktop courts in worn-out shoes hoping for a better tomorrow.

And the rest of me knows it will never happen.  And in the end, it’s not the media blitz over “the summit” that upsets me. It’s knowing that even if the summit happened, the outcome would be no different.

To paraphrase a great philosopher on another topic, “Summit or do not summit. Both are equally worthless.”

I only wish some of these guys would prove me wrong.

-T.

10:00pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/658968884/the-summit-strategy-fantasy-reality
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FILED UNDER: NBA Free Agency 2010 Summit LeBron Dwyane Wade Chris Bosh