November 9, 2010
Pace Yourselves

Since his first press conference as Cavaliers coach, Byron Scott has been promising that under his management, the team will play at a faster pace than we in Cleveland are used to seeing. With 6 contests of the 2010-11 season in the books, I wanted to see how his pledge is holding up so far.

*Usual Mesa Disclaimer: we are dealing with an EXTREMELY small sample size, so use caution in drawing any kind of grand conclusions based on these numbers*

Via our friends at Hoopdata, we find that thus far the Cavs are averaging 97.1 possessions per 48 minutes. (In other words, per regulation game). The league average so far this season? 97.0 possessions per game. Fittingly, then, the Cavs are currently ranked 16th in the league in this category.

Doesn’t exactly seem like Byron Scott is living up to his promise to make the Cavs a running team, does it?

When presented like that, it doesn’t. But in fact, Scott is making a pronounced difference in this facet of the game. To understand just how much of a difference, we need some context from the 2009-10 season. 

In the final year of the LeBron era, the Coldstone Cavaliers averaged 93.4 possessions per 48 minutes. Unless you’re a true stat head, a difference of 3.6 possessions per 48 may not seem like much. In reality, though, it’s a huge gap. At a 93.4 pace factor, the Cavs ranked 27th in the league.

Furthermore, the league as a whole played significantly slower in 2009-10 than they have so far in 2010-11. Case in point: the league average in this category in 2009-10 was a 95.1 pace factor—a -2.0 possessions per 48 minutes difference from the young 2010-11 season.

To really drive the point home, if the Cavs had played as fast for the entire 2009-10 season as they have played so far this year, they would have finished as the 6th fastest team in the league. The 2009-10 Denver Nuggets ranked 5th in pace at 97.4, a mere +0.3 possessions per 48 minutes faster than this season’s Cavs. Phoenix—for so long the gold standard of running basketball—finished 4th at 97.6, just +0.5 possessions per 48 minutes faster than the 2010-11 Cavs.

A margin of 0.5 possessions per 48 minutes is somewhat significant, but not catastrophically huge. There are multiple places in the the 2009-10 pace ranking where 0.5 is the difference between adjacent ranks, e.g. between #15 Toronto and #16 LA Clippers, or between the #10 Knicks and the #11 Bulls. To put the scale in perspective, the difference between the fastest paced team in 2009-10 (Golden State) and the slowest paced (Portland) was a full 13.0 possessions per 48 minutes. That, ladies and gentlemen, is a chasm.

So far, then, Byron Scott is actually holding true to his word, even if this season’s current rankings show the team at the middle of the pack. Whether or not the rest of the league continues to play at a faster average pace is something that remains to be seen. But I am relatively convinced that the Cavs will continue to, as Chuck Barkley has advised for years, speed up the tempo. If the average pace throughout the league does indeed drop—as I think it is likely to do for a variety of reasons—and the Cavs keep running, they very well may finish the season looking much speedier than both the Coldstone Cavaliers and the NBA as a whole.

-T.

12:51am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/1523748226/pace-yourselves
(view comments) 
FILED UNDER: NBA Cavs Cavaliers Byron Scott LeBron Advanced Stats 
November 5, 2010
Pattern Recognition & the Growth of LeBron

Many of you may remember that shortly after “The Decision,” some shithead was booted from an Indians-Yankees game at Progressive Field for antagonizing the home crowd by wearing a LeBron Heat jersey. 

Earlier yesterday, there were reports that the Heat were going to reward said shithead by flying him down to Miami, all expenses paid, to take in a game at American Airlines Arena and meet the team. 

Well, it turns out that those early reports were false. Or more accurately, someone near the top of the Heat food chain had the good sense to veto the idea before it could officially go through.

The question that I haven’t seen anyone ask yet is, whose idea was it in the first place?

I have a theory. And that theory is that it was LeBron’s idea.

Now, if you haven’t been reading the blog lately, you might think I’m suggesting this because I’m a LeBron hater. That I’m suggesting he wants to offer another middle finger to Cleveland. I assure you, I’m not. So what am I basing it on?

Well, does anyone else remember this?

If you do, then you also probably recall that LeBron later rescinded his invitation to make court-rushing teen fan Anthony Erskine a guest of honor at the Cavs’ next game in the NY metro area.

In short, the pattern is identical: an overzealous LeBron fan puts his love for James on display in an unorthodox and unwise manner; against better judgment, LeBron is flattered by the exhibition and extends an invitation to reward the fan; then before the invitation can come to fruition, it’s abruptly canceled.

There are certainly differences between the two incidents. In the court-rushing episode, the kid actually broke the law and was charged with a crime. In the Heat jersey episode, the shithead was completely within his legal rights, but not the social contract or the rules of etiquette.

The court-rushing instance also would’ve set a dangerous precedent within the league—dangerous enough that the league office likely had a hand in LeBron’s sudden change of heart. The Heat jersey situation didn’t share that trait. It was just a shithead justifying the label at a non-NBA event. There were no precedents for David Stern to be concerned about, no larger issues at stake.

This is an important distinction because it confirms that there’s no reason that the league office would’ve gotten involved. Which, in turn, suggests that either LeBron changed his mind on his own, or someone in Miami was able to convince him that indulging this whim would be another P.R. body blow—not just for himself, but for the franchise as a whole.

Either way, this chain of events signifies a notable shift in LeBron’s mentality. If Woj and other writers were to be believed, Cleveland was the house of ‘yes’ for James during his entire run. If anyone thought it was best to deny LeBron anything he wanted, then they weren’t effective enough in their arguments to actually get through to him. A few months later, he’s either grown up enough to reflect on himself more objectively, or else Pat “King Slickback” Riley has managed to get his ear in a more meaningful way than just about free agency and championships.

Does this really have any effect on Cleveland? At the moment, no. But I think that in combination with his pseudo-apology for “The Decision,” it’s an indication that James, who has been quite possibly the most psychologically interesting professional athlete in the world for the past 5-7 years, is growing up. (He is, after all, still only 25.) I will be very interested to see how he reacts when he’s back in Cleveland on December 2nd. I suspect that his response will be more complex than most Clevelanders are willing to believe.

-T

2:34am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/1486791589/pattern-recognition-the-growth-of-lebron
(view comments) 
FILED UNDER: Cavs LeBron Miami Heat NBA Pat Riley The Decision 
October 26, 2010
Why I Can’t Root Against LeBron

It’s been almost four months since LeBron James was a free agent for about a week, before choosing to sign with the Miami Heat. Since then, like every fan of the Cavaliers, I have gone through a whole host of emotions about the situation, about LeBron himself, and about his choice to play on another team, with different players, in a new city.

Over time, I have come to appreciate the greater implications of “The Decision” - which despite all of its flaws in terms of its execution - was a groundbreaking moment in sports history, specifically in the way that it shifted the balance of power between players and owners (read: the bosses and the employees; if there’s one thing I am, it’s anti-authoritarian). In the past, every owner assumed their guy would re-sign because they could offer the most money. Now, every agent only needs to mention “LeBron” or “The Decision” and management is in a panic (see: Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul). 

What this means to fan bases all over the country is something else entirely, and I realize it may very well have deeply negative effects. If fans sense that players aren’t “loyal” to the teams that control their rights, fans may lose interest over the long haul. Personally, I don’t know that this is a bad thing for the country - caring a little bit less about our sports teams, dropping the life or death attitude, for one that is more geared towards enjoyment and appreciation could be very healthy. 

Having said all of that, the big question that’s been loitering in between the front and the back of my mind since July 8th has been the following: How will I feel the first time I see LeBron playing a regular season game for the Heat?

Initially, I was pretty certain that I would gain a great deal of pleasure from rooting against Miami the entire regular and deep into the playoffs. Gradually, however, as I’ve spent some time thinking about why we root for players and teams at all, my opinion has changed. I won’t know for sure until tonight, when the Heat play the Boston Celtics on TNT, but I feel comfortable going ahead and wagering right now that the exact opposite will happen.

I will root for LeBron James. 

The thing about LeBron is that whether he was wearing a Cavaliers or not, he would have been my favorite player in the NBA. He is a remarkable athlete, a once-in-a-generation type talent, who rebounds, scores efficiently, and passes exceptionally. He plays a team game - most of the time, at least - and when it comes to sheer memorability, no one in the league is capable of producing highlights on a possession-to-possession basis like LeBron is. 

Make no mistake about it, LeBron is one of the all time greats. That is something I will always be able to admire and respect. Greatness is a trait that inspires me. It is a quality I can cheer for. 

When I think back on the 7 years during which LeBron played for the Cavaliers, I can only remember them fondly. I will never forget game 6 of the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals. I will always remember leaping into the air in a bar in Roswell, Georgia when he hit the nearly half court shot against Orlando in 2009, right before I turned 30. And how could I forget the endless conversations I had with Lakers fans in LA about who was the better player, LeBron or Kobe? I spent a lot of energy defending LeBron - and earned a lot of headaches along the way. 

I won’t pretend that there aren’t bad moments and memories, as well. Most of 2010’s Eastern Conference Semifinals against Boston, for example. LeBron’s constant hemming and hawing about free agency, tantalizing fans in New York City while torturing those of us in Cleveland. But when you spend 7 years watching someone’s every move from afar - especially when that person is between the ages of 18 and 25 and is supremely rich and famous - there are bound to be moments of imperfection.

Truthfully, I love basketball. I love the Cavaliers. And I couldn’t help but become emotionally invested in LeBron as a basketball player, especially since I was watching him play at a time that I was also learning a whole lot about the game. It was maybe a bit immature, probably a little unhealthy, and it definitely cost me a load of free time - 82 games per year at 2.5 hours per game adds up to 8.5 days, not to mention all of the hours Tim, DAD, and I spent writing and talking about the Cavaliers. 

When it comes down to it then, when I see LeBron on the floor tonight, I don’t think I have it in me to root against him. I’ve given him too much already as a fan. And he gave me a lot as a player. One moment, one decision, and a different jersey on his back are not enough for me to turn against the man, not when I greatly admire the way he plays basketball. 

Be pissed at me if you want, but I can’t do it. I can’t root against LeBron James.

On the contrary, I’ll actually be rooting for him to do something historically great this year and in the years to come. 

*Mike*

3:46am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/1405962105/notantilebron
(view comments) 
FILED UNDER: Cavs LeBron Heat NBA 
September 27, 2010
A Promise for the 2010-11 Cavs

The Cavs had their official “media day” today, and to call it ‘sobering’ would be an understatement.

No one has been more firm in their stance that the Cavs’ rebuilding is ultimately a good thing for the franchise than we here at Mesa. But it’s one thing to talk about that stance in the immediate days after LeBron’s departure. I’m discovering now that it’s entirely another thing now that training camp is here. 

The realization fully hit me at some point last week when I checked the Plain Dealer’s Cavs page. After all these years of pre-season feature articles centered on LeBron’s quest for his first title, the Cavs’ projected strengths and weaknesses against the other would-be East contenders, and other lofty topics, the top story was about the potential impact of…Ryan Hollins.

Ouch.

By no means am I changing my position. The Cavs need to do what Oklahoma City has done over the course of the past few years:  use the draft and under-the-radar trades to create a core of young players excited enough about the prospect of playing together for the long haul that the lure of a big free agent contract in another city is minor.

It’s just that, here in the first year of the strategy, accepting the immediate reality is going to take some getting used to.

As much as I want to believe that Byron Scott’s commitment to up-tempo basketball will help soften the blow and at least make the team entertaining, I’m still a wins-and-losses guy at the end of the day. Moral victories in sports don’t mean much in my personal belief system. And as much as I’d like to believe that the WP48-projected ceiling for this year’s team will come to fruition, I’d be lying to you if I said that I sincerely think it will. 

From that standpoint, there’s no getting around it:  the Cavs are going to be an undeniably, significantly worse team than we’re used to.

On one level, this may sound dangerously close to the type of fatalism you can get from any number of other Cleveland sports blogs. On another, it’s exactly what we always try to do:  acknowledge reality instead of hiding behind generalizations and preconceptions. And the reality is that, even if executed perfectly, rebuilding the team from the foundation up is going to take at least three or four years. In all likelihood, we have to prepare ourselves for the fact that at least the next couple of seasons could involve a level of frustration we haven’t known since at least the Paul Silas days.

I’m sure the more pessimistic elements of Cleveland would point out that I should be used to this by now because of the other teams’ failures.

I’m not. This is different.

In the case of the 21st century Indians and Browns, neither team has ever had enough sustained success for expectations to remain at a high level for an extended period. The Tribe has only made the playoffs twice since 2000. The Browns rode to the post-season once in that same time span. In theory, both teams are already in the midst of ‘rebuilding,’ but until I see a significant shift in wins and losses, it’s hard for me to buy into it. That’s not pessimism, it’s just the facts.

By contrast, the Cavs have battled into the post-season every one of the last five years, including a trip to the Finals. We (as a fan base) had also had the luxury of arguably the greatest player in the game on the roster that whole time. Year in and year out, the team always felt like it was on the verge. Barring a catastrophic injury you could print the playoff tickets on the first day of training camp. 

Now, the things swirling around the team are doubt, uncertainty, and absence.

Yes, it will be a very different Cavs’ season this year.

However, despite the different atmosphere, the lowered expectations, and in some cases, the anger and depression circling the franchise, the Cavs have another indisputable advantage over the Indians and Browns:  they just don’t need nearly as many players to turn themselves around.

Oklahoma City / Seattle won 20 and 23 games respectively in 2007-8 and 2008-9. Last year they won 50. For the next 5 years, they have to be considered in the conversation as Finals contenders.

So as bleak as the state of the Cavs may look at the start of training camp, I promise to try to trust the plan in place and maintain the long-term view. I hope that at least some of you will do the same.

-T

12:47pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/1203019032/a-promise-for-the-2010-11-cavs
(view comments) 
FILED UNDER: NBA Cavs LeBron Byron Scott Oklahoma City Thunder Cavaliers 
September 24, 2010
Once More, With Feeling

Talk about a no-win situation.

As you may have heard by now, Mo Williams was the subject of a what has become a controversial article by Yahoo! Sports’s Marc J. Spears. In it, Mo describes being so depressed and confused by LeBron’s departure that this summer he honestly considered retiring from basketball. At age 27. With 3 years and $26.3MM left on his current contract.

Since the article came out, Mo has been the subject of more attention—and more ridicule—than I expected. So much so that he felt compelled today to declare that he had been misquoted and taken out of context by Spears. In short, Mo decided he needed to call Spears a liar to try to regain some level of respect.

In my opinion, this is a really unfortunate turn for everyone who cares about sports and what’s happening in the minds of the people who play and coach them.

Today all athletes—even those at the college level (and in some cases I’m sure, the high school level)—take media training. The main objective is to scrub their potential interview responses of anything that could be seen as offensive or ignorant.

I understand this, especially in light of the unprecedented reach of new media. Nobody wants to look or sound like a jackass when there are contracts and endorsements at stake. Even if it ends up robbing us of interview like this, one of my favorite of all time.

Do I like losing them? Absolutely not. Do I understand the logic? Definitely.

However, the public reaction to Mo reveals that there’s also a more unfortunate side to this practice. Mo is being crucified for allowing himself to be honest while in the public eye. But his honesty didn’t involve bigotry, ignorance, vulgarity, arrogance, or immaturity. In fact, the Spears interview showed that he has a thoughtfulness, a self-awareness, a mental and emotional depth that most of us never knew or (likely) expected. 

In a word, Mo became interesting and relatable.

For granting the public this look inside his head, he was treated like an outcast on an elementary school playground.

You can bet that every pro basketball, football, and baseball player (since, let’s be honest, those are the only sports that are going to get enough run for this to matter) has taken notice—and then declared, “Man, I gotta make sure not to do what THAT guy did.”

In short, it’s going to be a rarer and rarer occurrence to hear an athlete say anything beyond the pre-scripted talking points we’re all so tired of hearing.

“No, this game isn’t more meaningful to us. We just wanted to get a win.”

“I don’t worry about that kind of thing. I just focus on knowing the game plan, going out and executing.”

“We know they’re a great team, but we believe in ourselves and know that if we work hard and play as a team we’ll be all right.”

Blah.

Blah.

Blah.

Good thing “the fans” and the pundits have been so hard on Mo.

There’s a great irony in all of this: namely, as the average person’s access to pro athletes and coaches continues to increase via 24/7 sports coverage, Twitter, blogs, etc., there will be less and less actual content of interest out there to find. Press conferences and interviews will be the equivalent of those stuffed animals that randomly spew one of a set number of phrases every time you pull a string.

In many cases, we’re already there.

So even if it makes me look like some kind of pussy, I wish Mo had stood by his comments. More importantly, I wish the reaction to those comments hadn’t been so negative.

Most of all, I hope that a few months from now, when everyone starts complaining again about what hollow role models pro athletes are, how all they do is talk about contracts and championships, how—with a precious few exceptions—every interview is basically the same, I wish everyone would look back at this Mo Williams incident and realize exactly why we’ve reached that point. 

There’s a lot of blame to go around. But I for one can point almost none of it at the athletes themselves. And more than any emotions Mo expressed, THAT is the saddest thing about this entire incident.

-T 

1:01am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/1177867367/once-more-with-feeling
(view comments) 
FILED UNDER: NBA Mo Williams LeBron Cavaliers Marc J. Spears