A Sunday afternoon game that showcased the importance of match ups and coaching strategy … and the Cavs lose by 6.
Okay, okay, so it wasn’t all about the different line-ups Coldstone and Stan Van Gundy ran out on the floor. The Cavs got almost nothing from their guards (Mo, Delonte, Boobie, Jawad, and Parker were a combined 5-26 ), LeBron had problems attacking the rim all game because he didn’t feel like he was getting calls, and he only scored 3 points in the 4th quarter. 5 turnovers and 6 assists from the King were not a highlight either.
The Cavs were also terrible from the line (64% with 9 misses). And although the defensive efficiency numbers aren’t up yet, Orlando shot 50.7% from the field - so the defense wasn’t particularly stellar. Specifically, Mo Williams and Anthony Parker got massacred in the pick and roll by Vince Carter and Jameer Nelson down the stretch.
Coldstone continues to struggle with his rotations. Jamario Moon got his second DNP in three games, after a weak performance on Friday in Charlotte (1 assist, 1 rebound, 2-5 from the field with one 3P), and Jawad Williams was back in the lineup. Anthony Parker played too many minutes again (26.5), given how little he produces, and Mo Williams illustrated why he’s a detriment to his team when he’s not making shots -although he does deserve credit for 5 rebounds, defensively he remains a liability.
The Cavs were able to survive some terrible guard play by getting a 90% shooting day from Shaq, and an excellent second half from Antawn Jamison, but the 5 and the 4 spots were a mess thanks to Coldstone’s poor lineup conceptualization.
For instance, as we’ve been told over and over by the media and the front office, Jamison was brought in to stretch the floor from the PF position, the one lineup dynamic the Cavs previously didn’t have. So what did Coldstone do in the first half? Repeatedly use 5-4 combos of Shaq-Glitch and Andy-Glitch, while putting Jamison at the 3, essentially replacing Moon / Jawad, and completely negating Jamison’s ability to stretch the floor from the PF position.
The big shift came in the second half when Jamison started at the 4, and we started to see immediate, positive effects - so Coldstone did figure it out, but like most things rotation / lineup wise, it took him longer than one would have hoped.
What we saw come to fruition in the moments prior to this second half starting lineup was vindication of Van Gundy’s strategy, which was on display in the last game before the All Star break: make Varejao and Hickson beat you.
Anyone on the planet who complains about the Jamison trade should keep that in mind - and also not forget that the Cavs, without Jamison, would’ve gotten torched in this game - precisely for all of the reasons I’ve written about in the past. When Mo isn’t making shots, the Cavs have no secondary scorer. Sometimes they need a guy to get 20-25. Jamison didn’t get that (he had 19), but he certainly helped.
Finally, one last point. There is no such thing as a “Curse of Z,” which I’m already seeing bandied about in Cleveland, presumably because the Cavs have now lost 3 straight games for the first time in two years. The problem with that is the following:
Coldstone sucks at quickly making rotation adjustments.
The Cavs beat up on (mostly) below average teams in putting together their 13 game winning streak. This is simply the schedule coming back around and evening out.
The team is now playing high quality opponents at an inopportune time, sort of like how the Cavs caught Orlando on the second night of a back-to-back in their previous two meetings.
Those are contributing reasons to these losses, as are things like Carter and Nelson taking good shots in the 4th quarter, unlike what we witnessed a week and a half ago.
Don’t get me wrong, Z would’ve helped - he makes the Cavs a lot more versatile at the 5 and the 4 positions because he’s a 5 that can spread the floor (and therefore team up well with Andy or Hickson). Plus, he helps when Shaq to not get in foul trouble, etc. etc. etc.
Z is valuable for games like this. And it looks like he may be bought out by Monday or Tuesday. But a war may be coming in that regard, given what Mark Heisler of the LA Times is reporting.
Leon Powe plays Tuesday against New Orleans. More rotation adjustment in the very near future…
Since Shaq is doing his best to make this game about him vs. Da-wight Howard, I thought it might be interesting to try to see how consequential the Diesel’s presence has been on Da-wight’s performance. To do that, let’s compare Da-wight’s play against the Cavs this year to what he did in the pre-Shaq era, specifically the Eastern Conference Finals.
DA-WIGHT STATS: 2009-10 Regular Season Vs. Cavs
2/11/10 vs. Cavs - 31 min, 19 pts on 6-9 FG and 7-10 FT, 11 reb, 2 blk, 5 fouls
11/11/09 vs. Cavs - 32 min, 11 pts on 3-3 FG and 5-12 FT, 7 reb, 1 blk, 5 fouls
2009-10 AVG vs. Cavs - 31.5 min, 15 pts on 75%FG and 54.5%FT, 9 reb, 1.5 blk, 5 fouls
DA-WIGHT STATS: 2009 Eastern Conference Finals Vs. Cavs
ECF Game 6 - 41 min, 40 pts on 14-21 FG and 12-16 FT, 14 reb, 1 blk, 5 fouls
ECF Game 5 - 37 min, 24 pts on 8-10 FG and 8-13 FT, 10 reb, 1 blk, 6 fouls
ECF Game 4 - 49 min, 27 pts on 10-16 FG and 7-9 FT, 14 reb, 3 blk, 5 fouls
ECF Game 3 - 28 min, 24 pts on 5-8 FG and 14-19 FT, 9 reb, 0 blk, 6 fouls
ECF Game 2 - 38 min, 10 pts on 3-8 FG and 4-8 FT, 18 reb, 2 blk, 4 fouls
ECF Game 1 - 38 min, 30 pts on 14-20 FG and 2-2FT, 13 reb, 0 blk, 6 fouls
2009 ECF AVG - 38.5 min, 26 pts on 65%FG and 70%FT, 13 reb, 1.2blk, 5 fouls
As usual, the caveat here is that we’re looking at a very small sample size. If we’re willing to accept that, though, the most dramatic differences in the comparison are in minutes, points, and rebounds. Da-wight is averaging 7 fewer minutes, 11 fewer points, and 4 fewer rebounds per game against the 2009-10 Cavaliers than the 2008-9 squad. (Sidenote: he’s also about -16%FT this year. Although it’s dubious to attribute that to anything the Cavs are doing, it highlights the notion that Da-wight’s shooting +10%FT higher in the ECF than his career average could actually have been the single most significant offensive factor in determining the winner of that series.)
I don’t have the wherewithal to try to convert these totals to per-36 minute numbers, but even if I did, I wouldn’t necessarily want to. This is because the minutes Da-wight is playing become significant in a different way: namely, regardless of his rate of production, how long is he able to stay on the floor against the Cavs’ new line-up?
Historically, Da-wight has problems with other true big men. He doesn’t like to be roughed up. He doesn’t like to play physical. Even though he’s not fouling any more (in terms of per-game totals) when he has to play part of the time against Shaq, the numbers suggest that on average, he’s racking up those fouls more quickly. Remember, for all their off-season additions, the Magic still only have two centers and, to my knowledge, almost never go small enough to warrant leaving both Da-wight and Gortat on the bench.
So if Da-wight’s minutes are down against the Cavs, the most likely explanation is that Stan Van is feeling forced to pull him quicker due to foul trouble. The facts seem to bear that out. Da-wight had 3 fouls by the 8:22 mark in the 2nd quarter of tonight’s game, forcing him to sit out the remainder of the half. It was a similar situation in the first game, too.
Does this surprise me? Not really. But it indicates that the biggest reason (literally) that “The Great Danny Ferry” felt he had to get Shaq is, in fact, working as planned.
One thing that drives me crazy about most sports analysts is their ignorance or unwillingness to discuss context. I’m eyeing a more in-depth post about this early next week, but for now, let’s take a step back from micro-analyzing this one Cavs’ game to see how their competitors in the East have been doing.
After tonight’s win, the Cavs are 20-7 and have sole possession of the third seed in the conference. They’re percentage points behind the 19-6 Atlanta Hawks for the #2 spot and have the same number of wins as the first-place Celtics, who have played 2 fewer games. The Magic are currently #4 with a 19-7 record.
For all our nitpicking about the content or style of the victories, the Cavs have now put together a 5-game winning streak to rebound from the ugly back-to-back losses to Memphis and Houston.
Meanwhile, Boston’s winning streak was snapped tonight on their own home court by Philly. Certain high profile fans of theirs took enough time out from watching “Jersey Shore” to blame the loss on the refs’ ejecting their 6th man. Yet in their 12 home games to date, the Celtics are just 8-4. The Cavs, meanwhile, are 11-2, with only the 12-2 Hawks above them by virtue of having played an additional game at Philllips Arena.
While I was bitching about the Cavs only beating the Nets by 10, the Magic got obliterated by the Heat in Miami, 104-86, with Dwyane Wade sitting the entire 4th quarter. At one point in the first half the Heat led by 29 points. (Mind you, this was a mere two games after the visiting Memphis Grizzlies demolished Miami by 28.)
The Cavs are also 5-1 in division play — the same division record as the Celtics. The Hawks are .500 within their division at 2-2, the Magic are 3-2. Perhaps most surprising, both of those two teams are behind the Heat at 4-2.
In their last 10 games, the Cavs are locked up with Atlanta for the second-best record in the conference at 8-2. Only Boston is ahead at 9-1. Orlando is a game back of the Cavs and Hawks at 7-3.
If we widen the lens to conference play, Orlando is the #1 team at 15-4, with one of their 4 losses coming in Amway Arena to the Cavs. Boston is #2 at 13-4, the Cavs are #3 at 13-5, and Atlanta is #4 at 10-4.
In terms of efficiency differential, Boston leads the conference at +9.2. Atlanta comes in second at +8.8. The Cavs are third at +5.5, barely edging Orlando at +5.4.
What do all these numbers mean? It’s really hard to say without a more in-depth look. For instance, how do the different divisions within the East compare to one another competitively? Is the Cavs’ 5-1 Central Division record more impressive than Boston’s Atlantic Division record because the teams are better? Who’s had a tougher schedule against the West so far?
One consistent conclusion to draw, though, is that the Cavs are indeed playing with a favorable chance to win the conference in the regular season. Obviously, there’s still two-thirds of the season left to play. But while I’m not going to encourage everone to go rushing to the standings to keep an eye on Boston, Orlando, and Atlanta at all times, it’s a good reminder not to get high or too low without understanding the context. Because for every frustrating game the Cavs have, there’s more than likely something equal or worse happening to one of the other “elite” Eastern teams.
Cavs go to Dallas to play the Mavericks on Sunday. Dirk a possible scratch due to an ugly injury in tonight’s game, where he ended up with bits of Carl Landry’s broken teeth in his elbow(!). The next two weeks will be a very interesting measuring stick, as the competition on this road trip (Dallas, Phoenix, the Lakers) is stiff, followed by a rematch with the Rockets and a home-and-home with Atlanta right before New Year’s. Let’s see where they end up at the dawn of 2010.
I’ll start by saying this was a quality win for the Cavs. The offense, particularly in the first half, was very fluid and Mo shot the ball out of his mind, going 9-9 from the field.
In a funny way, this game was a kind of “opposite day” version of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavs shot 48.1%, including 71.4% from 3P while the Magic came in at 45.1% and 22.2% from 3P. That’s right - the Cavaliers shot over 70% from behind the arc with ten makes. That is a huge number.
At the same time, the Cavs also out rebounded Orlando 42 to 37. You won’t lose too many basketball games when you out shoot and out rebound your opponent, unless you get massacred at the free throw line or in turnovers.
The Cavs lost the TO battle 14 to 10 but also made 3 more FT’s on 2 fewer attempts.
No Delonte again tonight, although apparently he was not inactive for missing the team’s flight to Orlando - that was excused. Jamario Moon ended up getting less minutes than I thought he did while watching the game (15). His game wasn’t very well rounded tonight, but he did get 7 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 assist - and had one incredibly impressive miss on a dunk at the end of the third period.
Anthony Parker did what he’s shown to be the most effective part of his game: knocking down 3P on the catch and shoot (3-3).
JJ even showed some signs tonight, mostly on hustle type plays - he saved a possession at the end of the first half and got fouled battling for a rebound, helping the team extend the lead when Orlando had just gotten it under 10. He didn’t shoot well (3-8), but he made free throws (3-4) and didn’t turn the ball over! He’d been averaging 3.3 per 36 minutes, so he normally would have had at least 1 tonight and maybe 2 (23 minutes total).
Having said all of that, a few things were less impressive, one of those being LeBron’s continued love affair with taking 2 point jump shots in one-on-one situations. He’s been shooting the jumper well so far this season, well enough that his FG% is above his career average (51.7% versus 47.1%), but it looks like he’s taking more shots on the perimeter outside of the flow of the offense. Shaq being in the paint may be one of the reasons for this, since Z would pick and pop and Shaq isn’t going to do that. This is especially the case when Bron is playing the 4 and Shaq is at the 5.
Yet, now that I’ve spun off that diatribe, Bron is actually taking less shots than he did last season (16.3 versus 19.0 per 36 minutes) and is getting to the line as much as he always does (9.1 FTA per 36). So, maybe I’m seeing things and just carrying over what I took away from the Knicks game…
The Cavs did not have a lot of assists (12 on 37 FG is not an impressive ratio), but they shot the ball well so it’s difficult to complain (assists only matter because they suggest more ball movement and higher percentage shots). Shaq, again, didn’t pass the ball out of the post very much - aside from his beautiful behind the back feed to LeBron - and Mo and Bron ran a lot of pick and roll in the first half, with Mo basically getting whatever shot he wanted…no pass necessary.
Still, I thought the game bogged down a bit in the second half, where the Cavs shot just 38% from the field - there certainly wasn’t as much movement as in the first half, where they shot 58%. Some of that can probably be attributed to shots simply not falling, some to the Magic’s defense, and some to molasses offense. I looked for assist numbers per half but failed to find them.
The Zydrunas Ilgauskas situation is becoming somewhat troubling. He was 0-for again tonight (0-6), the second time in 3 games, and also had 3 turnovers. Yes, the Twin Towers lineup was employed, but it made some sense against Da-wight and Gortat. Z also had 6 rebounds in 23.5 minutes, but there’s no arguing that Z is not playing with the same effectiveness he did last season (38% shooting versus 47% for one). Why this could be is difficult to say - the biggest change, obviously, is him coming off the bench. I’ll add that this could be a Brad Lidge/Charlie Manuel situation for Z/Mike Brown.
Ultimately, very good win for the Cavs. Doom and gloom would be pervasive right now if they had lost against a short-handed Orlando team that played the game tonight totally differently than they did in the EC Finals. Not a lot of ball movement (9 assists on 37 FG), lots of mid-range jump shots, and very few layups. Generally speaking, long two point jump shots are the worst play in basketball, and Orlando took a lot of them tonight. Vince Carter ended up shooting well (11-23), but he jacked up a few very tough shots.
Not having Ryan Anderson and Rashard Lewis available changed the entire game, more than Da-wight getting into early foul trouble. With neither Gortat nor Brandon Bass a danger from 3P, it was so much easier for the Cavs bigs to double Da-wight - and the Magic’s pick and roll game wasn’t as deadly because only Nelson and Carter could really take the 3 (instead of say, Nelson, Carter, Anderson, and Lewis).
The fact that Turkoglu is gone will be an interesting thing to watch - yes, VC is a more productive player and a better shooter, but we’ll see how he fits into that offense and affects match-ups in a 7 game series in the playoffs. Parker and Moon did an okay job on Carter tonight, but I like to remember the job Delonte did on Vince last year during the regular season, helping hold him to 37.5% over 3 games (though, ironically, in one of those games Carter shot exactly the same as he did tonight).
Shit. I’m still going. I’ll leave you with the following Twitter post…
WojYahooNBA Tough words out of Orlando Magic fan with Hickson at freethrow line: “Hey, there’s just one J.J. around here!” Well, I guess….
Read Da-wight’s blog entry, in which he complains about the refs and how bad his shoulder hurts (note to Da-wight from Alpha Dog: this means your opponent will attack your shoulder) and tell me you’re not excited about seeing him go against Shaq one week from today.
