On Monday, National Football Post’s Michael Lombardi dedicated part of his column to Mike Holmgren’s open statement that the Browns would not be picking Jimmy Clausen with the #7 overall draft choice. In case you missed it, here’s the quote:
“I wish I liked him more. You know how you have a type of player that you like? It’s not scientific. People like him a lot. He’ll go high. But it would be hard for me (to take him).”
As Lombardi points out, this is not a savvy move by a team’s top executive. Information, as we all know, is power. This is especially true when it comes to the draft. Buffalo is the only other team picking after the Browns in the top 10 that is also desperately in need of a franchise quarterback. (The Rams and Redskins have both been pegged as teams potentially looking to upgrade the position, but both choose ahead of the Browns at #1 and #4 overall, respectively.) Sam Bradford and Clausen are the only two quarterbacks that any draft expert I’ve seen has placed anywhere in the first round.
It’s entirely possible that the Rams pick Bradford, the Redskins pick Clausen, and the entire point is moot. But if the Redskins use their pick on a more workman-like position (say, OT, where they’re also deficient) the Browns have already blown any chance to pressure the Bills into trading up for the opportunity to pick Clausen. Holmgren has also potentially pissed off the front offices of both Kansas City (#5 pick) and Seattle (#6), both of which stood to gain from the same scenario. Don’t expect any deals with either of them any time soon.
This Clausen incident is just the latest in an established pattern. Holmgren has already made it clear by this point in his regime that truth-telling is going to be his default position. More than his spotty history in choosing personnel, this commitment to honesty is what concerns me most about the future of the Browns.
Think back to last year’s draft. The Browns had the fifth overall pick. They had so many gaping holes on both sides of the ball that they could have taken any number of impact players. But beyond their needs, the factor that made them the biggest wild card in the draft was Alpha Dog, whose defining characteristic as a coach and executive was the pathological commitment to hiding information from practically everyone. When the moment of truth came, the Browns traded down three times in the first round before tapping Alex Mack at #21 overall.
Now, we can debate all day whether trading down was the right move, either in general or for the specific compensation that Alpha received. But it’s indisputable that his unwillingness to show his hand gave him options—options that Holmie the Clown has already bungled away by giving an honest assessment of Clausen.
There’s a huge irony here that no one is talking about yet. That irony is the reaction of “the fans.” (Note: I’m putting this term in quotes to denote the same faceless, unified-in-basic-thought mob that writers like Terry Pluto cater to constantly…also known as ‘people who don’t read this blog’).
From everything I’ve read so far, “the fans” L-O-V-E Holmgren. They love him despite the fact that they don’t necessarily agree with some of the moves his regime has made, such as trading Kam Wimbley or signing Jake Delhomme to starter-level money. They love him enough to admit that they might be wrong about their personal feelings on these moves. In short, they love him enough to give him a chance.
Why do they love him like this? In the case of the quarterbacks, Lombardi suggests that it’s because of Holmgren’s reputation for developing quarterbacks as a coach. I agree with the analysis to some degree, but I also think that it’s only part of the equation. I would argue that the bigger component—bigger because it explains the pass he’s being given for every decision, not just the QBs—is that he’s made a commitment to being up front about his thoughts. To answer questions directly. To say what he means and mean what he says. In other words, a commitment to making “the fans” feel as though they have a window into the process.
Despite the love it’s gotten him from “the fans,” I could not disagree with this policy more strongly.
As we’ve stated over and over again since starting this blog, “the fans” should never be a factor in the front office’s decision-making, regardless of which sport it is we’re talking about. The reason is precisely because they are “the fans,” whereas the people making the decision are professionals whose jobs depend on seeing things that “the fans” don’t—and in many cases, shouldn’t—have access to. Pro sports executive is not a popularly-elected position, after all.
I’m sure there are people out there who would disagree with me on all these points. I know there are elements of “the fans” who would say that I’m not reading the reaction accurately, that they’re really just holding the jury out on Holmgren until they see whether or not this team will show marked improvement.
To me, though, this argument is garbage. Why? Because by the start of training camp last season, “the fans” (and some of the writers) were already calling for Mangini to be burned at the stake. From an executive standpoint, there is very little difference between Holmgren’s circumstance right now and Mangini’s at this time last year. Both replaced prior regimes that were extremely unpopular. Both immediately made some trades of skill players to accumulate draft picks (Kellen Winslow Jr vs. Kam Wimbley—and yes, I intentionally left Body By Quinn out of that comparison). Both made moves to bring in players who were not particularly highly regarded around the league as difference-makers (Abe Elam vs Seneca Wallace).
Yes, Holmgren is given credit for his successes as a head coach. But that’s not the role he’s fulfilling here. And yes, GM Tom Heckert is given credit for loading Philadelphia with talent. But he didn’t have total control there under Andy Reid. So in both cases, these men are occupying positions that are new to them.
I agree that both should be given the benefit of the doubt until the results can be judged in some tangible way. That said, it’s clear to me that the only reason Holmgren is being given this opportunity in the court of public opinion is because he’s ingratiated himself to “the fans” through his truth-serum campaign. I also strongly believe that the very strategy that’s buying him this time is ultimately one that puts the franchise in the worst possible bargaining position when it comes to the draft—a draft which, by all accounts, could be make or break for the Browns’ attempts to claw themselves out of the grave they’ve dug. Though I know he’s not consciously calculating it this way, it’s a flawed game plan: buy “the fans” off now while increasing the likelihood that you piss them off later by fielding a weaker team.
I have no idea how it’s all going to turn out. But if you’re looking to inspire confidence in this writer, Holmie, honesty is most definitely not the best policy.
As Dad noted below — in what has to be one of the great extended analogies in sports blog history — PAD lives to piss on another tree.
Only after reacting with major surprise when the news broke did I realize that I should absolutely have seen this coming. Here’s a few reasons why, Terry Pluto-style (that means “with numbers”, not “by giving the Cleveland sports faithful a passionate reach-around at the expense of thoughtful analysis”)…
1) For all his errors and questionable decisions, the team seemed to play hard for PAD and his staff for the entire season, especially once the problematic elements (Braylon, in particular) got voted off the island. Walrus Dog talked a good game about the 4-game win streak not being everything, but as a coach, I think it was hard for him to discount it. As Dad used to tell me in my days of guitar playing, the two most important parts of any song are how you start and how you finish. And PAD undoubtedly finished strong.
2) If nothing else, PAD clearly knows how to work a room. Last year around this time, he wowed Lost In Space to the extent that LIS immediately ended his coaching search and signed PAD to a multi-year deal before any other team in the NFL had even shown any interest in his services. In his previous stop, PAD had so impressed Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum that essentially the same thing happened. So the idea that PAD could come in and work the same magic on Walrus Dog isn’t exactly shocking. My guess is that he can talk as good a game as anyone in the NFL when his job is on the line, and if you haven’t had any previous exposure to him, it’s going to be really easy to get drawn in.
On a side note, I would pay a premium to go back in a time machine and watch Mangini work over some college broads in a bar during his days at Wesleyan. I bet it was a real show.
3A) Keeping PAD for another year is a minimum-risk investment. WD knows that the Browns are still a long way from being truly competitive in the league. Barring the direct intervention of God on the sidelines, they will not be a playoff team next year. Meanwhile, he has a 10 year contract. So even if he completely botches this season, he knows he’s got a long leash before he starts to feel any real heat for his decision-making. The most important thing is that he and whomever he chooses as his GM manage to draft well so that the personnel can be set up for 2011. Which leads us to…
3B) The free agent coaching market this year just plain sucks when we consider who WD really wants as his guy. By all accounts, the real man in control here is Bob “Puppet Master” Lamonte, WD’s trusted agent and legendary salesman. Whether by Puppet Master’s design or by WD’s own will, only a pre-approved guy from either Puppet Master’s client list or WD’s own NFL family tree will fill that spot long-term. Preferably, the candidate will meet both criteria. But the only available candidate who really fits that bill right now is former Lions head coach Marty Mornhinweg, whose cumulative record stands at a sobering 5-27. Not exactly the type of guy you need to run out and hire after you’ve just been named the head of a franchise.
However, if WD waits another year, at least two members of his chosen flock ostensibly become available: John Fox and Jon “Pride of Sandusky” Gruden. The upcoming season is the final one on Fox’s deal with Carolina, and according to SI’s Peter King, Gruden seems to be 100% sincere that he wants to spend at least one more year in the booth for Monday Night Football before slapping on another head coaching visor.
Barring a major Panther’s surge next season, the consensus among sensible sports pundits is that Fox is nothing more than a lame duck. Supposedly the only thing keeping him around for 2010 is the fact that Carolina’s owner absolutely refuses to fire a coach he’s already agreed to pay. There was even some chatter that Fox would end up replacing PAD this year, though that always sounded unlikely to me.
That said, barring a continued climb by PAD’s squad, my bet right now is that Gruden takes the helm in 2011.
To summarize, WD had these choices:
A) Fire a smart, charming guy whose team just won 4 games in a row in a point in the season where most bad teams have already packed it in — and fire him despite that you’ve had almost no time to really evaluate his performance and think it’s fundamentally sacrilegious to only give a head coach one year to try to rebuild a franchise.
B) Keep the coaching staff in place so that you can focus on personnel for the next year and give yourself a year-long sample size to see how PAD reacts to not running the show, knowing full well that two of your disciples will be available to take over on Jan 1, 2011 if PAD isn’t getting results.
When you break it down like that, it seems easy to see why WD decided what he decided. Whether it’s the first in a string of decisions that renews the franchise or the first step on a path to another high-priced disaster remains to be seen. I guess we’ll have to wait and see what we’re talking about at this time next season…which isn’t exactly a phrase that gives me a great deal of confidence. But who am I to argue with an endangered species?
After Sunday’s win over the Raiders, the Browns are officially on a 3-game winning streak. They now have the potential to finish out the season with 4 straight wins and actually top the ‘W’ total from last season.
In the midst of this, it seems like everyone in Cleveland has changed his tune about the quality of PAD’s (Post-Alpha Dog) coaching and the fate of his job once Holmgren comes in to run the team.
Now I’ve openly admitted to having a bout of this type of thinking after the second Pittsburgh game. Since then, it can certainly be argued that PAD’s body of work has only gotten more impressive, and that as a result, he should be given another year to show what he can do with this new foundation for the team.
However, I think it’s critical to keep in mind the big picture.
I have to give credit to Holmgren for recognizing this during his conference call to the press tonight:
“Eric and I talked about this,” said Holmgren. “I’m not a big fan of the quick hook. I never did that with quarterbacks and I really don’t think one year is enough to prove what you’re trying to get done. Sometimes the team is suffering because of things that were out of your control. Sometimes it’s because of poor decisions you made. That’s what I have to evaluate.”
This is a key point — and one that I think is being lost to some extent in the blinding glory of the Browns’ consecutive wins over Pittsburgh and perennial co-bottom-feeders Kansas City and Oakland.
Yes, the Browns are on a 3-game winning streak. Yes, they are now guaranteed to win at least as many games as they won under RAC last season. Yes, this can be interpreted as a sign of improvement and a buy-in to the coach’s philosophy. Yes, it can also be interpreted as a sign that PAD’s personnel moves and system changes were sound.
But it can also be interpreted in an alternative way, which is that if Lost in Space hadn’t cleaned house completely at the end of last season, the team may not be in a situation where the potential for a 5-win season is cause for excitement and optimism.
PAD is the guy who cleared out many of the known playmakers (Winslow, Edwards) and brought in “system” guys (Chansi Stuckey, Abe Elam, Kenyon Coleman). PAD is also the guy who — if we’re judging by impact made in their rookie season — went 1 for 3 on second round picks in the draft this year, with one of those players (David Veikune) apparently not even performing well enough in practice to earn time on special teams. PAD is the guy who canned the GM of his own choice 8 weeks into the season, as well as the guy who has led both the Great Quinn and DA to a season of stagnation and noticeable regression, respectively.
In short, there’s an argument to be made that had some of these changes not been made, the Browns could potentially be in even better shape than they are now. And since PAD was the trigger man on every decision after his hire, it would be best for the fan base and the pundits to keep in mind that he bears as much responsibility for the 11 losses as the 4 wins.
Obviously, there’s no clear-cut evidence that leaving Phil Savage in place and / or hiring a different head coach would’ve produced appreciably better results for the team this year. But I do think it’s naive to make judgments based on only the last 4 games of the season — only one of which will have been against a team that has a winning record going into week 16.
So just as I encouraged everyone earlier in the season not to lose sight of the big picture and where the team could go, I would encourage everyone now not to lose sight of the big picture and how the team got here.
I’ve already shared my basic thoughts on Mike Holmgren. I have no real idea what to expect from the man they call “The Walrus” and “The Big Show” and whose name I could not get out of my head yesterday while Tim and I discussed the Belgian white beer Hoegaarden. I believe it was wise for him and the Browns to come to the realization that the President position, and the President position only, was the best fit - no 61 year old man needs multiple high-stress, all-consuming jobs.
Holmgren’s first big decision will involve the future of Eric “Alpha Dog” Mangini. While I haven’t been in the locker room and don’t know enough about football X’s and O’s to truly evaluate Mangini’s body of work this season, I have been impressed by how he’s handled the insane amounts of criticism he’s received so far:
Trading down in the draft to pick Alex Mack instead of Mark Sanchez.
Repeated questions about second round draft picks Brian Robiskie and David Veikune repeatedly being inactive.
The endless QB controversy.
The fine for not accurately reporting Brett Favre’s injury last season.
The James Davis “opportunity period” injury that led to him being placed on IR and the Browns being investigated by the NFL.
The Braylon Edwards trade.
The Josh Cribbs contract debate.
The firing of George Kokinis.
The hiring process of Mike Holmgren.
That the Browns has won two straight this deep in the season after all of that may not be indicative of the team being good, but it does show that the players and, more importantly, Mangini have not given up. There’s certainly something to be said about a person who sticks to his plan amidst the heaviest of criticism - remember this guy saying Mangini was the worst coaching hire ever? - only to see that plan eventually produce some positive results.
It will be very difficult for Holmgren to fire Mangini if the Browns beat Oakland and Jacksonville. The team would then have won 5 games - 1 more than last year - and shown improvement over the course of the season.
However, I think the larger issue won’t be how many wins Mangini ends up with, it will be the answer to this question:
Is Mangini’s plan consistent with Holmgren’s?
If it’s not, then I believe Holmgren will have to fire Alpha Dog … or the entirety of next year will be a conflict-addled waste and one year of the rebuilding process will be lost.
What a lousy situation for Alpha to be in. And maybe he can adjust to Holmgren’s world view. Analysts more connected than me, like Michael Lombardi - who worked for both Bill Parcells and Bill Walsh - have said that the two systems share almost nothing, and therefore Mangini is doomed (of course, Lombardi doesn’t explain how he could work in both then).
This is all Randy Lerner’s fault, obviously, for how he handled the end of the Savage/Crennel regime and the hiring of Mangini. At that point, he had to know that a “strong, credible leader” was needed … in other words, a guy like Holmgren should’ve been hired last year or Savage/Crennel shouldn’t have been fired.
Mangini, perhaps overconfident, took the job knowing he could get power and control the entire organization because of how enamored Lerner was with him … Holmgren finds himself in a very similar situation. And I won’t be shocked if at some point down the road, Holmgren comes back down to the football field to coach the Cleveland Browns.
After 12 weeks of fans’ calling for the head of Alpha Dog, it took the man with the plan one night to deliver the most absurdly effective comeback possible: a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
I’m not going to do much commenting on the game itself, because I was reduced to watching a confusing ESPN.com Gamecast in my apartment. But after basically declaring that Rob “Golden Axe” Ryan had no right to the pass he was getting from the fans a week ago, his defense held the Steelers to 6 points on two field goals, sacked world-famous John Kruk stunt double Ben Roethlisberger 8 times, and overall made Pittsburgh’s offense look like, well, the Browns’.
On the opposite side of the ball, the Browns rushed for a total of 171 yards, never turned the ball over, and even managed to overcome another typically unimpressive Brady Quinn throwing day (6 of 19 for 84 yards) to emerge with a victory.
To me, though, the most fascinating aspect of this game is what it does to Alpha’s status in the community and with the organization.
Joshua Cribbs said it before and after the game: if the Browns were to beat the Steelers, the city would essentially forgive them for the entire season. Obviously, I’m not in C-town right now, but I genuinely believe that it’s true. Insane and completely illogical, but true. I personally feel like they won a playoff game. And we’re talking about a team that’s freaking 2-11!
I don’t know that it was possible for Alpha to save his job at this point. But if it was, then he just did it. At the very least, he’s given anyone who is or will be in control of his employment status in Berea a lot to consider.
Yes, there’s the special joy that comes from beating those Terrible Towel-waving jackasses to the east — especially in the type of cold-weather, bare-knuckled, prison-yard game Pittsburgh is supposed to be engineered to win.
But beyond that, there’s the simple observation that Alpha Dog has taken a team that, by all accounts, should be slapping a postage stamp on every game left in an over-worked, injury-riddled season and is somehow getting them to play hard and with pride. Yes, the Chargers’ game on Sunday was never really in doubt. But the Browns didn’t quit and ended up hacking their way to a one-possession game where the offense looked surprisingly competent for stretches. They followed that up with a gritty 13-6 win in the coldest game ever played between the Browns and Steelers, with reserves and practice team guys playing key roles.
Granted, the Steelers are not what the analysts thought they were even a few weeks ago. They’ve now dropped games to the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns. They’ve lost five straight games for the first time since 2003.
But as long as they have that logo, it doesn’t matter.
The question now becomes, was this primarily a stroke of luck for an embattled coach who happened to be playing the right team on the right week? Did this have more to do with the fact that his team is now full of guys who realize that they’re fighting for a job playing professional football next season? Or is there truly something to Alpha’s philosophy, approach, and relationship to the players that will allow them to be successful over the long term?
As we emphasized before the season began, it doesn’t matter what the fans think as long as the 60 guys in the locker room buy in. Against all odds, there seems to be some evidence that that is happening — ironically, even as Bill Belichick’s Patriots are beginning to show obvious signs of resistance to their coach’s philosophy.
I’m not ready to slurp the Kool-Aid on this yet. I guarantee there are some fans swigging it right now. But I will say that the remaining three games now become infinitely more interesting to think about than they were this morning.
Whether or not they’re interesting to watch is an entirely different conversation.
