Following up briefly on Mike’s post about Mangini’s job security, it’s worth pointing out that in the past 48 hours, the man known once known as Alpha Dog has gotten a significant amount of help from some of his friends in the head coaching fraternity.
In particular, I’m referring to the great Mike Shanahan and the…uh, gainfully employed Brad Childress.
How exactly did these two luminaries of the NFL aid Mangini? Easy. By each pulling a stunt so stupid and utterly indefensible that it has to force Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert into saying, “Jesus, at least we know Eric’s smarter than THAT.”
Mangini has taken his fair share of abuse for his handling of the team’s quarterbacks over the course of the past two seasons: not drafting a QB in the first round in 2009, yo-yoing Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn last season, playing the always-popular board game “I Don’t Know Yet Who’s Going to Start This Week” practically every week since he took over.
However, he has never done anything so completely baffling and destructive as pulling his (supposedly established) franchise QB in favor of letting Rex Grossman try to run the two-minute drill with his team down six points. That guy would be Shanahan, whom I would like to thank for once again proving my point that winning championships in a past era doesn’t mean you have any idea what the hell you’re doing in the current one.
Similarly, Mangini was the architect of some questionable personnel moves last season while he was pulling the strings during the short reign of ManKok. His haul for the Mark Sanchez pick would seem to be Exhibit A in the case against him. His deal to ship off Braylon Edwards mid-season to the Jets for a 3rd rounder, a 5th rounder, Jason Trusnik, and Chansi Stuckey could be Exhibit B—though in retrospect that doesn’t seem like a glaring failure.
However, even if you frown on the Edwards trade, it’s plain to see that Mangini has never done anything so totally foolish and insane as trading a third-round pick to rent a famously mercurial wide receiver for 4 weeks before waiving him because of his attitude. That guy would be Brad Childress, whom I’d like to thank for assembling what could be the biggest train wreck of a team playing football in 2010. (Not that they’re the worst talent-wise, just that they’re arguably the most colossal disappointment to their fan base.)
This reminds me of the old adage that when being chased by a bear, you don’t have to be faster than the bear to survive; you just have to be faster than the slowest camper. Even though the Browns were on a bye week, Mangini improved his standing thanks to these other morons’ moves, I believe. I still Mangini is going to have to coach the Browns up to another 5 victories to save his job, but at this point he certainly seems to be more competent than the guys running two of the more hyped teams of the season.
Whether or not he can carry this odd momentum into this Sunday’s game against the Patriots is an entirely different matter. But I know this: I feel better about the Browns’ chances with Mangini at the helm than with Shanahan or Childress. And for at least this week, I feel like the majority of Browns fans—and possibly the majority of NFL fans across the country—would actually agree with me.
It wasn’t until a conversation I had with Mike on Tuesday that we both realized just how pathetic the Browns’ 2009 draft has turned out to be.
Flush with picks and in full rebuilding mode, the Browns went into the draft that year thinking it could be the turning point for the franchise. Use those picks wisely, and the team would take a giant step toward clawing its way out of its own grave. Blow the draft, and sentence the franchise to not just one more year of garbage, but potentially several.
The stakes got even higher when the Browns turned down an opportunity at a potential franchise quarterback—something they frankly have not had since Bernie Kosar—by flipping the fifth pick (AKA Mark Sanchez) to the Jets, then trading down twice more in the first round to stockpile more draft choices.
At the time, we here at Mesa urged everyone not to jump to conclusions about the quality of the draft. I even went so far as to write a post after the Braylon Edwards trade to defend Mangini’s draft record with the Jets and suggest that his 2009 Browns draft had a decent chance of success.
A year later, I can say this unequivocally: the Kokgini regime crapped the bed to a biohazard level.
Here’s the list of the the Browns’ 2009 draft choices, along with their current status:
1st Round - #21 overall - Alex Mack, C
Mack is the lone indisputable bright spot of the draft: a consistent (and some have argued, potentially Pro-Bowl-caliber) starting Center. And yet even his acquisition is tainted by the fact that the rest of what the Browns got in exchange for the 5th pick was worthless. (More on this later.)
2nd Round - #36 overall - Brian Robiskie, WR
To date, Robiskie has been active for a grand total of 13 games. In that time he has racked up 9 catches for 124 yards. Only 35 players were taken ahead of him.
2nd Round - #50 overall - Mohammed Massaquoi, WR
In comparison to Robiskie, Massaquoi looks like Jerry Rice. Unfortunately, in comparison to practically every other #1 receiver in the league, Massaquoi looks like Brian Robiskie. Currently the Browns first option at wide-out, Massaquoi has 37 catches for 679 yards and 4 TDs in 18 career games. Not awful numbers, but it seems like a stretch to say that the Browns couldn’t have gotten someone to make more of an impact than this with the 50th overall pick of a supposedly loaded draft.
2nd Round - #52 overall - David Veikune, DE
After a career as a DE at Hawaii, Mangini drafted Veikune to convert him into a linebacker. He played in 10 games in 2009 and, for a time, was so bad that he wasn’t even getting time in practice. Cut during training camp this year. May have set the new standard for why it’s blatant idiocy to draft a “project” in round 2.
4th Round - #104 overall - Kaluka Maiava, LB
It’s entirely possible that Maiava is the 3rd best player the Browns got out of this draft. The problem? He plays almost entirely on special teams and is now out for the rest of the 2010 season.
6th Round - #177 overall - Don Carey, CB
Carey didn’t even make it to September of his rookie year on the Browns’ roster. He was waived by the team on August 6, 2009, then picked up by Jacksonville, who placed him on Injured Reserve less than a month later. He now appears to be out of the league.
6th Round - #191 overall - Coye Francies, CB
Francies’s biggest impact was the flurry of errant punches he threw in the locker room last fall after being pranked by Brandon McDonald. He managed to play in 6 games for the Browns in 2009 and was cut in the final days of 2010 training camp. He now plays corner for the Las Vegas Locomotives in the UFL.
6th Round - #195 overall - James Davis, RB
Davis earns the distinction of being one of the five 2009 draft picks still on the current Browns roster. As we all know, he missed the entire 2009 campaign due to the ever-mysterious “opportunity session” injury. He may have a chance to play more this season…but considering that in two 2010 games, he’s carried 4 times for 9 yards, I wouldn’t bet my life on an offensive explosion, unless I was looking for a way out and my friends and relatives had already removed all my shoelaces, razor blades, and pills.
In addition to the actual picks, the Browns also managed to snag the following gems via draft day trade:
Kenyon Coleman, DE
Coleman is still playing. He has 9 tackles and 1 assist so far in 2010. He played 13 games in 2009 before suffering a serious neck injury that threatened to end his career.
Bret Ratliff, QB
Found God in between the 2009 & 2010 seasons. Lost his roster spot in September to Colt McCoy. (Sidebar: going back through this draft has pissed me off enough that I’m now instituting my “Eldrick Woods” policy for McCoy. From here on out, I am referring to the kid as “Daniel” until he can prove he’s a worthwhile QB.)
Abram Elam, S
Another of the veteran players Mangini brought in to help institute his system and school the youth, Elam is easily the most serviceable player acquired in the trade for Mark Sanchez. It’s when I can offer such high praise as this that I know the KokGini regime really knocked the deal for the fifth pick out of the park. Jesus, these picks make me want to curl up into a ball like an armadillo.
2009 Draft Summary:
8 players drafted. 3 cut before week 1 of the 2010 season (Veikune, Carey, Francies). 1 on IR (Maiava). 2 who might as well be gone based on performance to date (Robiskie, Davis).
3 players acquired via trade. 1 cut before week 1 of the 2010 season (Ratliff). The other two contributing as veterans but not exactly turning the team into a contender.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is your 2009 Cleveland Browns draft class.
It’s not the source of every problem the team has right now, but it certainly suggests that to some extent Mangini has no one to blame but himself. Whether or not he’ll see it this way when he’s polishing up his resume this winter is another question entirely.
You’re returning to the same team you coached the prior season.
Judging by your team’s record, that last season was not successful. Ten losses will put any coach on the hot seat. You had more than that.
So you know that this season, your program must show colossal improvements, or else in all likelihood it’s time to book a moving company.
You’re confident this improvement can happen. You played a major personnel role last year. Part of your impact there was to get rid of the bad apples and bring in your own hand-picked replacements. Veterns who understand what you want. Young players who can be taught to play the game the right way from day one.
The stars look like they’re aligning. Almost everything is in place.
Then, in the off-season, your boss and the General Manager combine to pull a major power move on you.
They bring in a new starting quarterback. One who’s been to the Super Bowl. But not all that recently. Still a “name” guy, but one clearly on the twilight side of his career. A QB known to have a quick release and a big arm—but also one with an increasingly nasty reputation for poor decisions and interceptions. Both of which are near the top of your black list.
In particular, this quarterback had some issues in his final year at his last stop. He’s the type of guy who, it’s believed, might just need the infamous change of scenery to get him back on track. Or else he’s past the point of no return, and only the team who’s employed him for his entire career as a starter knows him well enough to realize it. That would make your team the patsy.
Nevertheless, the higher-ups pay big money to install this quarterback at the front of your system. They believe he’s got a veteran presence that will help guide the team to victory. Just as importantly, they think that he’s still got the talent to get it done.
In so many other areas of the team, you’ve gotten your way. But the most important position has been filled by someone who fits a profile that is, in many ways, the exact opposite of what you’d like.
Then, when that QB goes out and begins making exactly the types of mistakes you feared he would make, you get a sick feeling in your stomach. Because when the expectations for improvement aren’t fulfilled, you know that the guillotine isn’t hanging over your quarterback’s head so much as it’s hanging over your own. And unlike your new quarterback, you’re going to end up having to take a bullet for something that isn’t your fault.
OK, given this story, who are you?
If you guessed Eric Mangini, you’re correct.
Now, what team are you coaching?
If you guessed the 2010 Browns, you’re correct.
But if you guessed the 2008 New York Jets…you’re also correct.
Welcome to Eric Mangini’s deja vu experience.
Prior to both of the seasons mentioned above, an eerily similar drama played out. In New York, owner Woody Johnson and GM Mike Tannenbaum supposedly put Brett Favre in place against Mangini’s wishes. In Cleveland, Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert have essentially done the exact same thing with Jake Delhomme.
Admittedly, these two situations aren’t identical. Even if they didn’t meet the high bar set out for them, the Jets of 2008 were still much improved from their 2007 counterparts. They tacked on 5 more wins, going from 4-12 to 9-7. Yet there were hopes that with Brett Favre at the helm, they would at least make the playoffs, if not make a surprise run to a conference title game. Despite a strong start, they collapsed in the second half and missed out on the wild card. From there, Mangini was canned, and Favre was shipped out shortly thereafter.
None of us has any idea what the final record of the 2010 Browns will be, but no one licensed to live outside of an asylum believed they were capable of a +5 win improvement, let alone a playoff berth. Jake Delhomme, as I’ve mentioned earlier, is by almost all passing statistics a worse quarterback than Brett Favre. Unlike in New York where he had Chad Pennington at the helm, 2010 Browns Mangini didn’t have a previous starting QB that he loved and wanted to keep. He may not even have been against Delhomme in spirit. But one difference that’s indisputable: after wetting the bed against Tampa Bay to open the season, a strong start (and therefore, a late-season collapse) by this year’s Browns squad is by definition impossible.
Mangini knows he’s on the hot seat. Everyone in the city and the league knows it. But I doubt that any of those other people know it in their blood the way that Mangini does—not just because he’s the one who stands to lose or gain, but because only he would recognize just how many parallels are in action between those two situations. Because as our little guessing game proved, there are a lot of them, down to the fact that Mangini’s current Defensive Coordinator is a shave and a haircut away from essentially being the same guy who ultimately took his job in New York after the 2008 season.
In the winter of 2011, will Rob Ryan become the new Rex Ryan by usurping the head coaching gig Mangini just vacated? It seems unlikely to me. But as irrational as it may be, you can bet that every time Mangini looks at his defensive coordinator, his quarterback, or his GM, he gets a little jolt of deja vu. Only time will tell if this movie concludes the way the last one did. But Mangini can’t be thrilled about the plot so far.
Despite quarterback questions once again swarming over the team like buzzards over a battlefield, it was a year and a half ago that the Browns vacated the fifth pick in the draft and with it, the opportunity to pick USC star Mark Sanchez. Instead, the team moved down two more times in the first round, until they used the 21st pick to select Cal’s Alex Mack at #21 overall.
At the time, I was more than a little disappointed by the choice. It’s nearly impossible to win consistently in the NFL without a legit franchise quarterback, and for the Browns to have given up the potential opportunity at one because they had two existing-but-highly-suspect options each being paid a cargo container full of money already…well, it didn’t seem to me like a smart decision. I’m as sensitive to salary concerns as anyone, but at some point, you can’t keep passing up talent because you’re scared of another digit on the contract figure.
However, with the start of the 2010 season now less than a week away, I’m beginning to feel pretty safe in saying that Mangini made the right move.
If you have ESPN Insider, stat-head KC Joyner wrote a long analytical piece about what Sanchez’s struggles mean for the Jets as a team. You can read it here. The gist of Joyner’s argument, though, is that even teams with top five defenses (in terms of points allowed) have a significantly lower chance of making the playoffs, earning a trip to the Super Bowl, and winning it once there if their quarterback is ranked 20th or lower in terms of relative QB rating. In fact, that combination of offense and defense only gets a team to the post-season 62.9% of the time.
There’s an important distinction here. Joyner uses what I’m calling relative QB rating rather than absolute QB rating. In other words, he’s rating the QB’s passer rating against the other starters in the league to see where he falls compared to his competitors that season.
The result? Last year, Sanchez finished the season with a 63.0 passer rating. In 1976, that would’ve put him at #15 in the league.
In 2009, it dropped him to #28.
The usual caveat: one season is a weak sample size. But in his first year, Sanchez also threw 20 interceptions and fumbled ten times, including three lost fumbles. His INT% was 5.5. For comparison, Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre tied for lowest INT% last season with 1.3. This means Sanchez was about 4.25x as likely to throw a pick than either of those two. Or, another way of looking at it: Sanchez threw an interception more often than once every 20 pass attempts.
Not coincidentally, Sanchez only crested 20 pass attempts in three games post-Thanksgiving last year. Yes, the Jets won 6 of their last 8, but the quarterback at the helm of those wins looks a lot more like the proverbial “game manager” than a blue-chip stud ready to put the offensive on his back.
ESPN’s fantasy football guru Matthew Berry also points out a few facts about the Jets’ run game that speak volumes about Sanchez:
1) The Jets led the league in rush attempts last season with 607.
2) Only three other teams in the league rushed more than 500 times, and second place capped out at 525. Another way of thinking about: it’s as if the Jets’ backfield played 2 to 3 run-heavy games more than every other team in the league.
3) Only three teams in the league had fewer red zone passing attempts than the Jets.
However, the exclamation point on the argument is the current season of HBO’s “Hard Knocks.”
In the event that you’re not familiar with the show, “Hard Knocks” is an annual mini-series chronicling one NFL team’s preseason, from the opening of training camp through final roster cuts. Each season has focused on a different team. This season, of course, is all about the J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets.
With one episode left to go in this season, I have now seen the following:
1) Mark Sanchez consistently wearing a Taco Bell hat throughout training camp
2) Mark Sanchez arguing with a Pizza Hut receptionist over the fact that extra ranch sauce costs 75 cents per container
3) Mark Sanchez forgetting his playbook for a quarterbacks meeting, then retaliating against Brian Schottenheimer (who justifiably bagged on him for the mental lapse) by making Schottenheimer’s desktop background an image of a unicorn
4) Mark Sanchez sneaking into Brian Schottenheimer’s office and drawing mustaches on all of his pictures of his kids
5) Mark Sanchez eating a cheeseburger during warm-ups before the team’s scrimmage at Hofstra
6) Rex Ryan chewing out the entire team for a complete lack of leadership from the locker room, particularly on the offensive side of the ball
This seems like an appropriate time to mention that the Jets are paying Sanchez $44.5MM, with $28.5MM guaranteed through 2013. Does it seem to you like they’re getting their money’s worth?
Alex Mack, on the other hand, has been slowly gaining buzz among football analysts as a potential Pro Bowl-caliber center. Most recently, ESPN’s Jeffri Chadiha included Mack on his top ten list of young stars who “will soon prove vital to their team’s success.” I don’t have any statistics to back this analysis up. But Chadiha does point out that Mack is facing two of the best 3-4 nose tackles in the league—Baltimore’s Haloti Ngata and Pittsburgh’s Casey Hampton—twice each per season. Holding his ground against those players means a lot more than if he was playing in, say, the AFC West.
Ironically, the Jets’ current strengths support the argument that Mack at #21 was a wiser selection than Sanchez at #5. Behind center Nick Mangold, widely regarded as the best in the league, and star left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson, the Jets’ offensive line is the engine that makes their running game the beast it’s become. With Mack and Joe Thomas anchoring the Browns’ line and a minor stockpile of potential talent in the backfield, the team could be set up to take a major step forward this season—at least on the offensive side of the ball—even if Jake Delhomme goes south. Which is exactly how Mangini drew it up and talked about it a year ago.
Whether or not it works out that way remains to be seen. And of course, Sanchez could turn his play around and become a juggernaut this season or next. But based on what I’ve seen from him so far, I feel considerably more comfortable knowing that the Browns haven’t sunk at least $28MM into a would-be star who may turn out to be nothing more than a game manager.
On Monday, National Football Post’s Michael Lombardi dedicated part of his column to Mike Holmgren’s open statement that the Browns would not be picking Jimmy Clausen with the #7 overall draft choice. In case you missed it, here’s the quote:
“I wish I liked him more. You know how you have a type of player that you like? It’s not scientific. People like him a lot. He’ll go high. But it would be hard for me (to take him).”
As Lombardi points out, this is not a savvy move by a team’s top executive. Information, as we all know, is power. This is especially true when it comes to the draft. Buffalo is the only other team picking after the Browns in the top 10 that is also desperately in need of a franchise quarterback. (The Rams and Redskins have both been pegged as teams potentially looking to upgrade the position, but both choose ahead of the Browns at #1 and #4 overall, respectively.) Sam Bradford and Clausen are the only two quarterbacks that any draft expert I’ve seen has placed anywhere in the first round.
It’s entirely possible that the Rams pick Bradford, the Redskins pick Clausen, and the entire point is moot. But if the Redskins use their pick on a more workman-like position (say, OT, where they’re also deficient) the Browns have already blown any chance to pressure the Bills into trading up for the opportunity to pick Clausen. Holmgren has also potentially pissed off the front offices of both Kansas City (#5 pick) and Seattle (#6), both of which stood to gain from the same scenario. Don’t expect any deals with either of them any time soon.
This Clausen incident is just the latest in an established pattern. Holmgren has already made it clear by this point in his regime that truth-telling is going to be his default position. More than his spotty history in choosing personnel, this commitment to honesty is what concerns me most about the future of the Browns.
Think back to last year’s draft. The Browns had the fifth overall pick. They had so many gaping holes on both sides of the ball that they could have taken any number of impact players. But beyond their needs, the factor that made them the biggest wild card in the draft was Alpha Dog, whose defining characteristic as a coach and executive was the pathological commitment to hiding information from practically everyone. When the moment of truth came, the Browns traded down three times in the first round before tapping Alex Mack at #21 overall.
Now, we can debate all day whether trading down was the right move, either in general or for the specific compensation that Alpha received. But it’s indisputable that his unwillingness to show his hand gave him options—options that Holmie the Clown has already bungled away by giving an honest assessment of Clausen.
There’s a huge irony here that no one is talking about yet. That irony is the reaction of “the fans.” (Note: I’m putting this term in quotes to denote the same faceless, unified-in-basic-thought mob that writers like Terry Pluto cater to constantly…also known as ‘people who don’t read this blog’).
From everything I’ve read so far, “the fans” L-O-V-E Holmgren. They love him despite the fact that they don’t necessarily agree with some of the moves his regime has made, such as trading Kam Wimbley or signing Jake Delhomme to starter-level money. They love him enough to admit that they might be wrong about their personal feelings on these moves. In short, they love him enough to give him a chance.
Why do they love him like this? In the case of the quarterbacks, Lombardi suggests that it’s because of Holmgren’s reputation for developing quarterbacks as a coach. I agree with the analysis to some degree, but I also think that it’s only part of the equation. I would argue that the bigger component—bigger because it explains the pass he’s being given for every decision, not just the QBs—is that he’s made a commitment to being up front about his thoughts. To answer questions directly. To say what he means and mean what he says. In other words, a commitment to making “the fans” feel as though they have a window into the process.
Despite the love it’s gotten him from “the fans,” I could not disagree with this policy more strongly.
As we’ve stated over and over again since starting this blog, “the fans” should never be a factor in the front office’s decision-making, regardless of which sport it is we’re talking about. The reason is precisely because they are “the fans,” whereas the people making the decision are professionals whose jobs depend on seeing things that “the fans” don’t—and in many cases, shouldn’t—have access to. Pro sports executive is not a popularly-elected position, after all.
I’m sure there are people out there who would disagree with me on all these points. I know there are elements of “the fans” who would say that I’m not reading the reaction accurately, that they’re really just holding the jury out on Holmgren until they see whether or not this team will show marked improvement.
To me, though, this argument is garbage. Why? Because by the start of training camp last season, “the fans” (and some of the writers) were already calling for Mangini to be burned at the stake. From an executive standpoint, there is very little difference between Holmgren’s circumstance right now and Mangini’s at this time last year. Both replaced prior regimes that were extremely unpopular. Both immediately made some trades of skill players to accumulate draft picks (Kellen Winslow Jr vs. Kam Wimbley—and yes, I intentionally left Body By Quinn out of that comparison). Both made moves to bring in players who were not particularly highly regarded around the league as difference-makers (Abe Elam vs Seneca Wallace).
Yes, Holmgren is given credit for his successes as a head coach. But that’s not the role he’s fulfilling here. And yes, GM Tom Heckert is given credit for loading Philadelphia with talent. But he didn’t have total control there under Andy Reid. So in both cases, these men are occupying positions that are new to them.
I agree that both should be given the benefit of the doubt until the results can be judged in some tangible way. That said, it’s clear to me that the only reason Holmgren is being given this opportunity in the court of public opinion is because he’s ingratiated himself to “the fans” through his truth-serum campaign. I also strongly believe that the very strategy that’s buying him this time is ultimately one that puts the franchise in the worst possible bargaining position when it comes to the draft—a draft which, by all accounts, could be make or break for the Browns’ attempts to claw themselves out of the grave they’ve dug. Though I know he’s not consciously calculating it this way, it’s a flawed game plan: buy “the fans” off now while increasing the likelihood that you piss them off later by fielding a weaker team.
I have no idea how it’s all going to turn out. But if you’re looking to inspire confidence in this writer, Holmie, honesty is most definitely not the best policy.
