Since we didn’t really address it when the trade to Minnesota happened Monday, I felt that I needed to jot down a belated goodbye note to Delonte.
In many ways, Delonte is an embodiment of what we here at Mesa keep writing about: sports and the athletes who play them are much more complex than most people understand. The man is struggling with a serious mental disorder—one for which there is no real “cure,” only imperfect treatments that can take a variety of twists and turns. Further, both the disorder and parts of the treatments directly conflict with the lifestyle and requirements of an NBA player. A consistent routine can’t realistically be established when you’re traveling for 41 or more games a year; the spotlight is no place for a person with these difficulties, especially when it comes with a battery of reporters; and even some of the medications in play have significant physical side effects, such as decreased energy levels, drowsiness, and the potential for weight gain.
Despite all that, it’s an incredible credit to Delonte that he was such an important part of the Cavs’ success between his acquisition at the trade deadline in 2007 and his unfortunate legal problems at the end of summer 2009. I for one will never forget the sight of Delonte (6’-4”, 180 lb) battling Hedo Turkoglu (6’-10”, 220 lb) all over the perimeter during the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals while LeBron was content to stay on Rafer Alston. The fact that he’s even managed to make it to the NBA at all is an incredible achievement, and part of me will always wonder how much different this past Cavs’ season could’ve been with West starting at 2 instead of Anthony Parker.
Despite all this, I think many NBA fans fail to see Delonte as anything more than a joke or a disappointment. That evaluation is way, way, way off. I think it’s largely a symptom of the way that professional athletes are viewed in our culture: not as men and women with real lives and real problems, but as characters put on our TVs and blogs and newspapers for our entertainment—and worse, our judgment. For instance, many fans don’t want to acknowledge that a good NBA team can appear to “slack off” or have difficulty when playing a game on Christmas day because those players all have the same kind of holiday/family stress we all deal with; they just have to work throughout it. Many fans don’t want to hear excuses about injury or illness when a player turns in a sub-par performance, despite how willing those fans would be to use that same excuse if they had a bad day at their own job.
In short, too many fans demand that because our pro athletes are being paid super money, they should be superhuman. Delonte can, in many ways, be seen as the emblem of just how absurd that idea is.
Since I keep getting asked by my friends about this preposterous affair Delonte is alleged to have had with LeBron’s mother, I feel like the best parting gift I can give to my man D-West is this: a complete breakdown of what utter crap that rumor was, via Deadspin. Beyond basketball, it’s a sobering lesson in how easy it can be to crucify someone via the internet based on nothing but smoke, mirrors, and a few well-placed emails.
So from all of us at Mesa, here’s to you, Red. I hope you can somehow manage to put the chaos of the past year behind you, emerge from your private struggles, and return to your 2008-9 form on the court. Honestly, even if it happens in Miami, I can’t be mad at you for it. Just do us all a favor and make LeBron actually guard someone.
Between LeBron, Chris Paul, and practically everyone else in the NBA any time there’s a trade of any significance, I’ve come to a strange conclusion: I’m sick of hearing about championships.
I don’t mean to say that I believe NBA players shouldn’t be thinking about winning or trying to win. By their very nature, every professional athlete should be wired to compete, to dominate, to conquer. If they’re not, they should be making their living doing something else instead.
My problem is with the way championships are now perceived. From what I can tell, the title of every professional sport has become a check box—something that every player with an eye toward his legacy believes he must be able to mark off. If not, the thinking is that the player automatically becomes second-rate.
Since it’s always the default comparison in this case, just consider the difference between how Charles Barkley (off-court issues aside) and MJ are perceived. Barkley’s empty ring fingers seem to have made him a cautionary tale to every pro basketball player of subsequent generations. Yet, during his career, Chuck was an absolute monster. If you don’t believe me, check his stats—and keep in mind while you’re doing it that he was putting up those numbers at power forward while standing a mere 6’-6”.
Unfortunately, the first thing that comes to mind at the mention of Chuck’s name is the glaring lack of a championship on his resume. Now, players like LeBron, Chris Paul, and everyone else born after 1980 look at Barkley like the poster child of some kind of pro basketball “Scared Straight” campaign. (“Don’t lift the Larry O’Brien trophy, and you’ll end up like him!”)
Championships have somehow become the be-all, end-all in every sporting discussion. There’s an entire segment of the population that believes the “Kobe vs. LeBron” discussion is idiotic simply because LeBron is ringless. Therefore, how can he even be considered in the same breath as Kobe Bryant, 5-time champion?
As a result, the possibility of potentially doing something historic, of assuming greater risk for the possibility of greater reward, has become irrelevant. There is nothing—not loyalty, not an emotional connection to a place or a fan base or teammates—as important as a championship. Because without one, what are you, really?
This, I believe, is the primary motivator behind the power moves this generation’s superstars are now pulling. LeBron willing to go to Miami to play a supporting role to Wade? Better than not winning a championship. Chris Paul making every effort to burn the sports fans of one of the most unique and real-life ill-fated cities in the country? At least he won’t be the failure who could never win the Finals.
This isn’t necessarily the fault of the young players themselves. It’s the inevitable result of how we as a sporting culture have set our priorities. In team sports, the teams are obviously made up of individuals. Especially in the case of baskestball, where only 5 men are on the court for a team at any given time, the impact of a single player can be enormous. At the same time, no player is ever alone on the court, so pinning the ultimate success or failure of the team on one person is inherently illogical.
There’s a paradox at work, too, because we certainly honor individual greatness. But in a bizarre way, we respect the individual’s impact so much that his team’s failures become the individual’s fault. It’s even evident in the language when we discuss this topic. Very seldom do we say “Charles Barkley’s Suns never won the title.” We simply say, “Charles Barkley never won the title.” After all, why skirt around the damnation by acknowledging reality?
This is why I’m disappointed in Chris Paul’s trade demands, and in LeBron’s decision to merge with a rival rather than try to knock him out. On some level, I feel like those guys are surrendering. They would rather diminish their own greatness, the possibility of what *could* happen, for what they believe is a guarantee that they’ll be able to check off the championship box. They’re playing it safe—and doing it partially because we’ve all made them believe that that’s the only thing that matters.
It’s also why part of me wants to defend Mo Williams, who begged not to be traded because Cleveland has become his home and he believes the Cavs can get it done; or Byron Scott, who took the Cavs’ coaching job without any security that the team would be a contender next year. For all their other faults, these are men who believe in something greater than popular opinion. They understand that there are possibilities but no guarantees. (As Shaq said this past year, “I won four championships. Three of them? Lucky as hell.”) And above all else, they have values or desires that exceed catering to the fans and analysts and past greats blinded by jewelry. They stand for something.
I wish I could say the same for more of the players who make my favorite sport run.
Linkage will take you to an article by CBS Sports’s Ken Berger, all about how Chris Paul has been so inspired by the Wade / James / Bosh trio that he wants to replicate it somewhere else.
Reports of this idea first surfaced at Carmelo Anthony’s wedding the weekend after James announced his decision to head to Miami. Allegedly, Paul proposed during the reception that he, Amar’e, and ‘Melo form their own three-headed monster in New York. I didn’t pay much attention to this idea at first, because it sounded like the type of thing that…well, a friend would say to his other buddies after they’d all gotten hammered at a wedding reception.
However, Berger’s reporting makes it sound like Paul’s alleged proclamation had a lot more substance to it than that. According to Berger, CP3 is now determined to force a trade to the Magic, Lakers, or Knicks before the start of the 2010-11 season.
Obviously, the first two of those scenarios would have the rest of the pieces already in place. The Knicks, though, wouldn’t be “complete” until, in theory, Carmelo rebuffed Denver and decided to sign in New York after his contract expires in 2011.
Of course, that last scenario is far from a done deal. The giant Bermuda Triangle that is the new CBA could render everything moot—though I become more convinced every day that it ultimately won’t look all that different from the current one. Nevertheless, Melo will have to decide whether to accept a 3 year, $65MM extension from the Nuggets between now and then, knowing full well that it could be his last true opportunity to pull down the type of scrill that the free agents of 2010 are now making.
Beyond the specifics of what happens with Paul, the larger implication is the troubling one, especially for small market teams such as the Cavs.
For now, Miami’s triple-star alliance has become the new paradigm for young players in the NBA to covet. We may have entered into an era where every new talent in the league will start to believe that the only path to a title is alongside two other established great players.
If so, it’s a dangerous time for the NBA. The obvious reality is that there can’t be 3 great players on all 30 teams. It would be hard for me to imagine that there can be 3 truly great players on 10 teams.
So what happens?
Hypothetically, power would concentrate in just a handful of teams—probably 5 or 6 at most. By itself, this doesn’t sound so crazy. There are only 5 or 6 legitimate title contenders at most in any given NBA season. But unlike the contenders of the past, the disparity between the talent levels of these new powers and the rest of the league would be astronomical. So astronomical, in fact, that I find it hard to believe that competition could exist at a reasonable enough level to justify the continuation of a 30-team league. What would be the point of even putting 16 teams into the playoffs if everyone knows that, for the next half-decade, only the Knicks or Heat can legitimately rise out of the East to the Finals in order to battle either LA or Oklahoma City?
On some level, I’m hesitant to push this idea too hard. For one thing, we all know that just putting the supposed pieces in place doesn’t automatically mean you get to lift the trophy. Injuries, feuds, bad luck, bad match-ups, and a thousand other factors can all ignite the wick of the bomb that blows up a paper champion.
For another thing, we have to remember that it’s been proven in years past that defense can, in fact, win titles. As Tom Haberstroh has pointed out, the best blueprint for beating super-teams like the Heat may be the type of suffocating defense that propelled the Pistons past a “more talented” Lakers team in 2004. (Note: that link is only going to be good if you have ESPN Insider. Sorry.) To create a monster of that order, you’d need talent—but not the type of high-dollar, high-octane offensive power that we’re seeing in Miami and Paul’s dream of NY.As the 2007 Cavs showed, you may only need one superstar to get there, provided that the rest of the cast is willing to chase after and rough up the opponent like prison guards.
To return to a theme we’ve covered here before, I am severely disappointed by the idea that stars will now start defaulting to making alliances as a means to winning. It’s unfair to place the blame for this squarely on Wade, LeBron, and Bosh; after all, I have to point the finger at the Garnett / Pierce / Allen combo for reintroducing the term “Big Three” into our basketball vernacular. (And Jesus Christ, do I hate Danny Ainge for that.) But at least in that case, the team was created through trades rather than three players engineering everything on their own because of a lack of confidence in their own individual abilities.
We’ll have to see where this Chris Paul story goes. But I for one am not keen on the idea of watching two or three teams run the league for the next decade, all because Pat Riley created an unprecedented opportunity in South Beach. The problem isn’t the 2010 Heat; it’s the idea that they’ve now created a precedent that could make the NBA as a whole unsustainable.
After a discussion with WP48 expert Holland, I realized that I semi-botched my projection of the Cavs’ team performance this upcoming season. I wanted to take some time tonight to correct the analysis.
For those of you actually interested in advanced statistics, the main error involves some of the nuances of WP48. The purest form of the metric involves position adjustments. For example, a point guard’s WP48 performance isn’t weighted in exactly the same way as a center’s. Without adjusting, the metric heavily favors big men because they’re so much more likely to, say, get rebounds and shoot a higher percentage, as well as much less likely to turn the ball over (all important components of the entire scheme).
My source for WP48 was Basketball Reference, which is still a fantastic resource for advanced stats. However, if anyone out there wants to use it, keep in mind that the WP48 figures they give appear to be unadjusted.
OK, with the explanation out of the way, here are the adjusted WP48 totals for the roster hold-overs from last season. I kept all of the other parameters the same as in the original post.
Varejao = .181 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 11.1 wins
Mo = .116 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 7.1 wins
Moon = .191 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 11.7 wins
Hickson = .123 WP48 x 20 mpg x 82 games = 4.2 wins
Gibson = .042 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 0.6 wins
Jamison = .194 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 11.9 wins
Parker = .081 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 5.0 wins
Powe = .000 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 0 wins
Green = .074 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.1 wins
Jawad = -.069 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = -1.1 wins
Telfair = .020 WP48 x 4 mpg x 82 games = 0.1 wins
TOTAL PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 52 wins
So after adjusting for position, WP48 actually projects the Cavs to win one additional game beyond what the unadjusted numbers projected. This is mostly due to dramatically increased ratings for Moon and Jamison. Their gains more than offset significantly lower ratings for players like Mo, Gibson, Parker, Powe, and Jawad.
The other error I made in Monday’s post had to do with the expected error involved in the calculation.
I said at the time that WP48 predicted win totals to about 80% accuracy. I undershot. It’s actually (allegedly) accurate to within 94%. The error range is about +/- 1.5 games. Essentially, what this means is that the 2010-11 Cavs have a 94% chance of winning somewhere between 50.5 and 53.5 games.
Let me repeat that: if no changes are made to the current roster, and the rotation looks something like what I’ve outlined above, the Cavs allegedly have a 94% chance to win at least 50 games in their first season without LeBron. That’s +20 wins higher than what even the most optimistic sports pundit (that I’ve seen, anyway) has predicted for the team next season.
Of course, if Byron Scott chooses to start Jawad at 3 over Moon, this entire projection goes out the window. And I might, too. (Though I live on the first story, so the effect would probably be pretty muted.) But for now, things are definitely looking up.
Now, as I noted in my original post on this topic, I still think we’re running a significant risk in these projections if we only look at the numbers from last season. (Unfortunately, I don’t have adjusted career WP48 numbers.)
One of the points where I split with the WP48 philosophy has to do with synergy, for lack of a better term. The WP48 system assumes that player production is an inherent trait determined by the player’s skill level. In other words, he will produce roughly the same over time regardless of who the other 4 men on the court next to him are, not to mention who the 5 defending him are.
I, on the other hand, believe that a player’s teammates have a significant effect on what he’s capable of doing. For example, a spot-up 3-point shooter gets much better looks if he’s playing with someone on the front line who demands a double-team. Theoretically, he should be more open for his shots and should drain a higher percentage. I would argue that Mo Williams has been a great example of this. In his 2 seasons with the Cavs, he’s shot 43.6% 3P and 42.9% 3P, respectively. In the previous 4 seasons in which he’d played significant minutes with Milwaukee, his career high from beyond the arc was 38.5%. That’s a 4.5-5% uptick since starting next to LeBron.
This will be one of the elements to keep your eye on this coming season. Can the Cavs players find a way to do what they did with LeBron? As Mike pointed out, their current roster has a very low number of guys capable of creating shots for themselves. We’ll see how that affects things, along with the new up-tempo system Scott is already implementing in the Vegas Summer League. (Side note: WP48 disregards pace, so in theory this shouldn’t affect the projected win total. I remain skeptical on this point, but that’s a discussion for another day.)
That said, if things proceed as I expect, I still plan on checking into the over/under on Cleveland’s win total for 2010-11 if I’m in Vegas before the season starts.
All right, I think this is the last numbers-centric post I’m doing for a little while. Pseudo-philosophy, pseudo-psychology, and pseudo-humor back next week.
There are two different Cavs-centric topics that I felt needed to be addressed in some capacity tonight.
1) Goodbye Z, You Were Never Even Allowed To…Oh, You Did Everything But Win It All
I don’t have a lot to say here, other than that Z is the only reason to not resent the 20010-11 Miami Heat. In my personal opinion, it’s ridiculous to begrudge Z for making this move. He’s played for the Cavs for 14 years and even came back after a pride-stinging trade to the Wizards this past season. If the Heat do in fact win the title this year or next (early reports were that Z’s contract with Miami included a player option for the 2011-12 season), I will take consolation in the notion that Z will have finally won his ring. Admittedly, I will still wish that ring had a Cavaliers logo on it. But especially since he has already stated that he hopes to become a part of the Cavs organization after he retires, we here at Mesa wish Z the best.
2) “Who the Fuck is Kyle Lowry?”
Those of you who saw that the Cavs made their first move of the free agency period by signing Rockets back-up point guard Kyle Lowry to an offer sheet may be asking exactly that question.
The answer is: one of the best PGs most of you have never heard of.
First off, any time the Cavs acquire or attempt to acquire a player from Houston, you should automatically feel like it’s a good choice. Rockets GM Daryl Morey is arguably the most advanced stats-centric executive in the league. If you like our perspective on things, you like Morey’s perspective on things.
Lowry is one of those players that the Cavs have had their eye on for years. I remember rumors that they were trying to acquire him dating as far back as his playing days in Memphis, which ended midway through the 2008-9 season. Though not a tall player (listed at 6’ even), he’s not a pushover by any means (175 lb). More importantly, he has been arguably one of the best defensive 1s in the league for the past 4 years. Though my usual source for RAPM doesn’t seem to be loading tonight for some reason, it appears that his 4 year aggregate defense RAPM is right around -2, which is excellent (remember, negative numbers are good in defensive RAPM).
Further, Lowry is a disgustingly good rebounder for his position. Here’s what Mesa favorite Tom Haberstroh had to say about him at the beginning of the free agent season:
To the casual fan, Lowry might seem like another ordinary backup at the point. The 24-year-old former Villanova guard plays like a bulldog, using his rare combination of strength and quickness to overpower his lighter opponents. And he’s one of the best, if not the best, rebounding point guards in the NBA, as his 8.6 percent rebounding rate (percentage of available rebounds a player collects while on the floor) places him second at the position just behind all-timer Jason Kidd. Lowry, who’s just 6 feet tall, may even go down as the best vertically challenged rebounder in the history of the game.
Lowry also does the little things that aren’t captured in the box score. According to Hoopdata.com, Lowry took more charges (51) than any other guard this past season despite playing only 24.3 minutes per game.
The down-side is that Lowry isn’t exactly a scoring juggernaut. He doesn’t shoot particularly well—only 42.1% FG and 26.4% 3P career—but he’s also far from a liability. His True Shooting Percentage (the metric that takes into account 2P, 3P, and FT) is just shy of 54% career; barring an anomalous 2nd year, he’s been over 80% FT for his career. Most importantly, he gets to the line a TON for a point guard. Per 36 minutes, Lowry has averaged 5.7 FTA career. In comparison, Rajon Rondo has averaged only 3.4 FTA career.
Just as importantly, Lowry’s passing game is impressive. His 2009-10 Assist Rate (number of assists per 100 possessions) was 30.52. By comparison, one LeBron James’s 2009-10 AR was 23.42.
Overall, Lowry is a tough, gritty defender; an average shooter, but also a player who knows that his best asset is to attack the rim; and a more than capable passer. In short, he’s exactly the type of addition I would like to see the Cavs make to their backcourt, especially if Byron Scott’s “run on offense / lock down on defense” strategy is going to come to fruition.
Before I get too excited, I should note that the Rockets have stated that they will match any offer sheet to Lowry in free-agency. So we’ll have to wait 7 days to find out if he’s actually coming to Cleveland. But if he is, I personally will be thrilled.
