Since LeBron announced his decision to “take [his] talents to South Beach” last Thursday night, I’ve seen a couple of different people pose questions to NBA pundits about the Cavs’ fate for next year. Specifically, how many games should we anticipate they’ll be able to win without James in the line-up?
The consensus answer from those pundits seems to be “not many.” Big surprise. Specifically, 30 wins seems to be about the best case scenario the pundits believe Cavs fans can hope for.
Of course, the pundits who were asked this question weren’t people who I would expect are using advanced statistics in their projections. I, on the other hand, anticipate that the team will be better than most of the rest of the people in the country would think, because I know how well many of the players on the roster rate in metrics that the average fan (and average pundit) aren’t considering. For instance, when the idea of Toronto signing-and-trading Chris Bosh to the Cavs was being heavily discussed, our buddy Chad Ford (one half of T.I.T.) made the point that the Cavs could potentially use the deal to unload a bad contract like…Anderson Varejao’s. Whereas we here at Mesa have regarded Andy as the Cavs’ second-best player since about 2006.
But since “better than these other guys think” still isn’t a good answer to “How good do you think the 2010-11 Cavs will be?”, I decided I would use Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes (WP48) to build a rough model that would spit out some actual numbers.
Here are the parameters I set:
I can only use players who are actually under contract for next year
I’m excluding Delonte because Chris Grant has all but said that he will be cut or traded prior to his contract becoming guaranteed early next month
There is a total of 240 minutes per game to distribute among the roster, since 5 players have to be on the floor for 48 minutes (5 x 48 = 240)
The starting 5 will be Mo at 1, Parker at 2, Moon at 3, Jamison at 4, Varejao at 5
Each starter will average 36 minutes per game.
JJ will be the 6th man, and will average 20 minutes per game
Sebastian Telfair will be the “most likely to DNP” and will only average 4 minutes per game
All of the other subs on the roster will average 9 minutes per game
Each player will play all 82 games
If use each player’s WP48 from the 2009-10 season and the minutes-per-game assumptions above, we get the following projection.
Varejao = .179 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 11 wins
Mo = .136 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 8.4 wins
Moon = .131 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 8.1 wins
Hickson = .123 WP48 x 20 mpg x 82 games = 4.2 wins
Gibson = .117 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.8 wins
Jamison = .115 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 7.1 wins
Parker = .103 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 6.3 wins
Powe = .097 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.5 wins
Green = .083 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.3 wins
Jawad = .069 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.1 wins
Telfair = .020 WP48 x 4 mpg x 82 games = 0.1 wins
TOTAL PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 51 wins
Now, supposedly the WP48 statistic only accounts for 80% of wins. If we assume that to be true, then we should adjust this 51-win total by dropping it 20%.
TOTAL ADJUSTED PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 41 wins
The problem here is that it’s flawed to assume that these players are going to be able to play the same way without LeBron that they did with LeBron. In that sense, it’s misleading to use their 2009-10 WP48 stats in a projection. It’s likely more accurate to use their career WP48 stats.
Admittedly, this revised model would still be a very rough one, since there are some players—Andy, Jawad, Boobie, Hickson, and Danny Green—who have played with LeBron for their entire NBA careers. But it’s the best we can do right now.
When we plug career WP48 stats into the model, we get these numbers:
Varejao = .156 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 = 9.6 wins
Mo = .095 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 = 5.8 wins
Moon = .122 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 = 7.5 wins
Hickson = .116 WP48 x 20 mpg x 82 = 4.0 wins
Gibson = .107 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 1.6 wins
Jamison = .118 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 = 7.3 wins
Parker = .100 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 = 6.2 wins
Powe = .183 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 2.8 wins
Green = .083 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 1.7 wins
Jawad = .068 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 1.0 wins
Telfair = .013 WP48 x 4 mpg x 82 = 0.1 wins
TOTAL PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 48 wins
Again, if we drop this “best case” number by 20%, we get something likely much closer to reality.
TOTAL ADJUSTED PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 38 wins
In short, WP48 suggests that the pundits are, as usual, low-balling the Cavs. It’s possible that the team could still be competing for the final playoff spot in the East next season, even if they made absolutely no adjustments to their roster. Granted, this would take a remarkable level of health and consistency from all players involved, but it’s not out of the question.
However, we’re undoubtedly going to see changes to the roster in the coming weeks. My personal hope is that those changes are geared toward making the team better in the long run rather than the short. But as it stands now, we should feel comfortable that the Cavs are not going to be a 15-win team. Cold comfort if you consider where we thought the team was only a few months ago, but the first step towards improvement is realism. Hopefully the front office agrees.
With two days remaining until free agents can officially sign contracts, I wanted to take stock of the harsh realities that are starting to pile up for LeBron-hopeful franchises—in particular, the Chicago Bulls.
Since last week, the prevailing perception among pundits is that there’s been a huge momentum shift in terms of LeBron’s expected destination. A big part of this seems to have to do with the Shakespearean power struggle playing out behind the scenes in James’s camp. Windhorst tweeted tonight that, according to his sources, there is indeed a rift between LRMR and World Wide Wes, with Wes essentially being pushed out of the process by Maverick Carter. This is significant because Wes had allegedly been telling anyone who would listen since the playoffs ended that LBJ to CHI was a done deal.
Admittedly, the Bulls are still very much in the picture. But it seems to be down to Chicago vs. Cleveland in James’s head. However, some of the reasons that Chicago’s favored status has taken a hit act as a great reminder of how much more complex free agency and the business of the NBA is than what most of the talking heads have made it out to be.
1) Resistance from the Pre-Existing Star
Again according to Windhorst’s Twitter feed, one of the factors working against Chicago is that Derrick Rose hasn’t exactly welcomed the idea of LeBron coming to town. The lesser elements of the NBA analyst community are likely baffled by this. Why would Rose, a budding superstar, not welcome the opportunity to play with arguably the best player in the league in his prime?
To me, though, it makes perfect sense—especially when you factor in that one of the main reasons for Rose’s resistance comes not from Rose directly, but from his agent.
As we’ve pointed out over and over again on Mesa, the reality is that LeBron and Derrick Rose aren’t particularly complementary players. Both of them need the ball in their hands to be their best, both of them operate primarily on the perimeter with frequent cuts to the basket, both of them have high usage rates (27.2% for Rose last season, compared to 33.5% for LeBron), meaning they were the primary decision-makers on how their teams’ possessions ended. In short, they both excel, but having both is redundant and possibly harmful to each.
Now, either Derrick Rose has recognized this, or else his agent—who also happens to represent Joe Johnson—pointed it out to him. Shockingly, in “Rose’s” opinion, Johnson would have been the best max contract fit for the Bulls. In theory, i.e. if Joe Johnson deserved max money, I would agree. He’d provide another offensive weapon who was a three point threat (37.3% career), and would happily cede leadership and responsibility to Rose and Noah.
My theory is that Rose’s agent also happens to realize that if LeBron—a very similar player in many regards to his own client—comes to town, there’s a significant chance that Rose’s numbers take a hit. In addition, he also takes a demotion, in a way, because LeBron (as the face of the NBA) automatically assumes the leadership role. Which would in turn endanger the probability that Rose receives a max extension offer the summer after next. If he’s a good agent (and it’s Arn Tellem, so history and reputation say that he is), his responsibility is to look out for his client’s best financial interests. In this case, the best case scenario would’ve been for Johnson to join Rose. The runner-up scenario is that Rose continues to be allowed to do what he’s done the past two seasons. And the only way that happens is if LeBron stays away.
Does it makes sense? Absolutely. Is it something that anyone in the pundit-at-large community would’ve mentioned in talking about what a great fit Chicago is for LeBron? Never.
2) Disconnect Between Long-Term and Short-Term Pieces
Mike mentioned this earlier, but as important as the 2010-11 season is, LeBron’s next contract will (theoretically) be for 5 or 6 years (depending on if he re-signs with the Cavs or manages to swing a sign and trade). The most attractive personnel reasons for James to go to Chicago are, of course, Rose and Noah. Rose remains on his rookie contract through the 2012-13 season. That would cover either 50% or 60% of James’s commitment. Not bad.
However, Joakim Noah’s contract at present only runs through the 2011-12 season. He becomes eligible for an extension after this upcoming season. That would cover only 30% or 40% of James’s commitment. Not as encouraging—especially when you take into account that Bulls’ ownership has consistently tried to avoid paying the luxury tax.
Assuming something resembling the current CBA (e.g. no hard cap, no salary rollbacks) is adopted in 2011, Chicago will have to max or near-max a different player for each of the next three seasons: LeBron this year, Noah (via extension) in the summer of 2011, and Rose (via extension) in the summer of 2012. And for anyone thinking that Noah will not demand a huge deal, I would point out that Amir Johnson and Darko just cashed in for a combined $54MM over the next 5 years. If you think some team like the Knicks won’t go balls-out for a legitimate young center like Noah, you’re probably wandering around the desert in a peyote-induced haze.
For a recent example of how this type of domino-effect salary play works, look at Orlando. In the span of two seasons, they paid Rashard Lewis a max contract in free agency, then max-extended Da-wight and gave a sizable extension to Jameer Nelson shortly thereafter. The Magic are committed to roughly $44MM in salary between those three players for next season, with the annual amount heading north for each player through 2012-13. Their team payroll will hover above $80MM in 2009-10 and 2010-11. Admittedly, this is partially because Otis Smith ran buckwild with his owner’s checkbook and is paying a back-up center about $6.5MM / year, not to mention $35MM total over the next two for Vince Carter. But the three deals I mentioned at the top still make up the majority of that $80+MM figure.
The bottom line is that every good roster is on a time line. At a certain point, re-signing everyone becomes untenable. (With both Kevin Durant and Jeff Green eligible for extensions this summer, Oklahoma City is rapidly approaching this point, and it will be interesting to see how they handle it.) Unless your owner is willing to go into the tax, that is. Jerry Reinsdorf has resisted that strategy, and that historical resistance may be one of the aspects giving LeBron pause about a move to the red and black.
3) The Rest of the Roster
The other problem that follows from the point above is that even if ownership pays serious scrill to keep the core together, you of course still need complementary pieces to create a championship team. We’ve discussed this point ad nauseam in regard to teams (King Slickback, I’m looking in your direction) gutting their rosters to clear cap space. In honor of the fact that we’re bringing this up again, find the nearest dead horse and whale away.
Again, per Windhorst, LeBron is wary of the fact that the Bulls currently have no shooters whatsoever on their roster. Chicago was 28th in the league in 3P% last season (33%), and just traded away one of the only guys trying to pull them up in that category (Kirk Hinrich at 37.9% career), so it stands to reason that they’re going to decline even further this upcoming season unless they can get some marksmen through free agency.
However, since Chicago can’t make any complementary moves until they know if James will actually sign with them, there’s a heavy risk involved for James. Though we won’t know the cap figure until Thursday, the Bulls should have around $13MM to spend after LeBron hypothetically signs with them. Can they split that money up and still get more than one quality shooter? Or do they just go all in and try to use most of that chunk to try to lure Ray Allen under the assumption that one elite 3P bomber will be enough? Or do they botch the entire exercise, and then LeBron is stuck on a team where no one can reliably hit a three pointer?
Say what you will about the Cavs’ roster, but as Mike pointed out on our Twitter feed tonight, the front office recognized that the team needed to surround LeBron with dunkers, rebounders, and especially shooters. If Chicago doesn’t seem equipped to do the same thing, the star power of Rose and Noah loses some of its luster. And the “sure thing” that was a move to Chicago becomes an even bigger roll of the dice than when Uncle Wes was removed from the cockpit.
The point is that almost no one in the mainstream sports world was raising these issues at the start of the free agency period. But now, as it nears decision time, the less attractive elements of the equation seem to be looming larger for LeBron. Whether or not they’re literally a deal-breaker, we apparently won’t know until Thursday. But I assure you that if a lack of role players is part of what sinks the Bulls’ hopes for LeBron, I will laugh until I’m doubled over. Here’s hoping for stomach pain.
Since the Cavs broke off contract talks with Brian Shaw earlier today, I have no real news to discuss right now. Instead, I’m going to take this time to address a half hour of TV that thousands of sports fans watched tonight—ESPN’s Free Agent Summit. Or, as I like to call it, “4 Guys Ignore Reality for 30 Minutes.”
In case you missed it, the show consisted of ESPN’s Tony Kornheiser, Mike Wilbon, Dan Lebatard, and Bill Simmons discussing the ins and outs of the Summer of Money. The problem is that apparently, none of them understand anything about the salary cap, let alone some basic things about the players involved. But what do you expect from a guy who, as far as I can tell, now only watches golf (Kornheiser); a guy who’s too busy being friends with the players and coaches to actually report on them objectively (Wilbon); a South Beach homer (Lebatard); and a reality TV scholar (Simmons).
It would take me all night to try to address every mistake or misconception this esteemed panel proclaimed, so instead I’ll just try to hit a few of the high points. It’s the best way I can think of to try to combat the dumbing down of American basketball fans.
1) It’s fiscally possible for LeBron, Wade, and Bosh to all play for Miami without anyone taking a pay cut
A max contract for the above players next season will be 105% of their 2009-10 salaries, or $16,568,908 according to cap sorcerer Larry Coon. Also per Coon, Miami will have $27,596,072 of cap space after re-signing Wade. That leaves Miami roughly $5.4MM away from being able to accommodate three max guys. Even if they manage to shed the radioactive Michael Beasley (guaranteed $4.9MM for 2010-11), they’re still short.
Further, a sign and trade isn’t possible because Miami doesn’t have the assets to match salaries for a third max contract. As of this moment, the only other players besides Beasley that are even on their roster are Mario Chalmers ($854,389), Joell Anthony ($885,120), and Kenny Hasbrouck ($762,195, unguaranteed). It may be possible via getting a third team involved, but what third team is going to want to help enable that deal? Oh, maybe the Wizards, since they seem to just want to help other teams clear cap space. But even that seems doubtful.
Bottom line: this scenario can play out, but only if one of the three stars voluntarily takes a pay cut. There’s a minimal chance of that happening with so many other teams willing to dish out max money.
2) Dirk Nowitzki should be the next player mentioned in all free agent talks (behind the guys mentioned above)
The amount of time that the panel spent on this topic was just remarkable to me. To Wilbon’s credit, he admitted what makes this subject so ridiculous: Dirk’s not going anywhere. His opt out just means he gets to negotiate a longer, higher-dollar extension with the Mavericks. This is the same scenario as with Paul Pierce, who opted out of the final year of his Boston contract tonight.
Beyond the dollars and cents aspect, I got a good laugh out of the notion that Dirk is such an important player that he should be in on the alleged face-to-face talks with Wade, James, and Bosh. Just think about that room for a second: the three supposedly tight-knit buddies in the primes of their careers…and then the 32 year-old German guy. For the record, Dirk would probably be a welcome presence in that room from a personality standpoint, since as far as I can tell he’s hilarious. But he’s not repped by CAA and can’t know any of those guys very well, let alone the fact that he’s on the complete opposite side of his career. It’s a little absurd.
Kornheiser really took the cake on this one. He predicted that Nowitzki would end up in Miami when it was all said and done. Frankly, I was surprised that Kornheiser was even aware that Miami had a franchise, but part of his reasoning for Dirk’s move may have been projecting how well he would fit alongside the likes of Rony Seikaly and Glen Rice. So I’m holding back the credit.
3) High quality veteran players will take the league minimum to play with a “Super Team”
I say this over and over again, but this is my favorite idea in the entire free agency discussion. I especially like it when pundits spout this minutes or seconds after declaring how ridiculous it is to think that in this crucial final year before the new CBA, the big-name free agents will opt for less money. I agree with that statement. But the notion that the little guys—the ones who aren’t making any endorsement money or getting any other major perks—are going to have a different mindset on the same issue is just unrealistic.
Think about it: Tarence Kinsey and Dorell Wright—both low dollar role players in 2008-9—both got cited for traffic violations in Bentleys they’d bought that same season. It may be unfair to project that every guy in the league is living this far beyond his means, but I’m willing to bet that many of them are. Factor in their wives/girlfriends, kids, friends, and other expenses, and every dollar counts. Yes, chasing a championship is great, and some guys may take less money for the opportunity. But the notion that really high quality players who could easily command a bigger contract this summer—say, Ray Allen—are going to voluntarily opt for a veteran minimum contract…please.
4) The Nets will be shut out in free agency because “if you want to play in New York, why would you want to play for a team that stinks?”
Yes, the Nets were the worst team in the league last season with an abysmal 12-70 record. But they have the highly productive Brook Lopez, #3 pick Derrick Favors, and former All-Star Devin Harris. The Knicks were 29-53, traded their first round pick to the Rockets at last season’s deadline, and will lose their most productive player, David Lee, to free agency so they can clear cap space to chase a bigger star.
Bottom line: the Knicks had more than twice as many wins as the Nets last season, but they were still sub-30 wins. Does that mean they’re good, or just good by comparison? Plus, when you take the cool factor into account (Nets: charismatic billionaire owner, Jay-Z, upcoming Brooklyn move vs. Knicks: incompetent owner, decaying MSG as home floor), the Nets have to be considered a more appealing option. But maybe that’s just me.
5) LeBron will skyrocket to multiple titles as soon as he changes teams, because he’ll “finally have a say in who his teammates are”
A lot of preposterous comments were made tonight. But this one, from the Miami Herald’s Dan LeBatard (whom I normally like), may have been the crown jewel. I really wish that Woj had been able to call into the show so he could set the record straight on this, but obviously it didn’t happen.
If the reports that came out at the end of this season were true—and I have every reason to believe they were—no single player in NBA history has had as much say in the roster around him as LeBron James. We know that LeBron approved the Shaq trade. He supposedly told the front office to go out and get Antawn Jamison mid-season. Multiple deals that Ferry had constructed were allegedly vetoed by James, and thus, by Dan Gilbert. To blame Ferry for the failures of the roster is a near-preposterous exercise.
In fact, if LeBron does end up winning a title or titles with a team such as Miami or Chicago, it will be precisely because he does NOT have a say in who his teammates are (beyond the obvious initial choice made by the switch itself). If Riley couldn’t be strong-armed by Wade, he won’t be strong-armed by LeBron. And if Jerry Reinsdorf couldn’t be strong-armed by MJ, he won’t be strong-armed by LeBron. For James, an iron-willed owner and/or team president may be the best thing. The question is whether or not that’s what he really wants.
I could go on forever about more topics. For instance, the “summit” spent an entire segment analyzing who would be a better pick-up between Shaq, AI, Jermaine O’Neal, and Tracy McGrady, but the phrase “sign and trade” never came up a single time in any of the talk of the marquee free agents. However, I have better things to do with my life than continue to talk about all the ways in which the mainstream sports media once again missed the boat.
My advice: til signatures start going on contracts, believe half of what you see and none of what you hear. Especially if Kornheiser, Wilbon, Lebatard, or Simmons is involved. Good night and good luck.
Day 2 of Hell Week - shit, maybe Hell Month - continues for Cavaliers fans on Tuesday.
I came into Monday evening with two separate ideas for columns. The first was about how LeBron James is a difficult player to build around. The second was … pathetically, I can’t even remember what the second was.
Apparently, I’ve already given up the fight against Hell.
It doesn’t much matter though, really, because what I finally decided was that everything I write about the Cavs before July 8th, at the very earliest, could all be irrelevant by, well, July 8th.
As a result, I’m really beginning to wonder if it’s worth writing anything about the Cavs until we know LeBron is gone, or until we know he is staying. It’s not even July 1st, and the daily reports on the subject add up to white noise. On Sunday, the New York Times was willing to quote an anonymous NBA executive as saying Chicago was “a done deal.” Then I woke up today to see that Stephen A. Smith was reporting that James and Chris Bosh were definitely going to Miami to play with Wade. Tomorrow could very well supply a “James and Johnson to New York” headline.
In truth, nobody knows until LeBron signs the contract. I remember two summers ago when the airwaves were flooded with reports that Elton Brand had verbally agreed to sign with the Clippers. Okay, well, we all know what actually happened there - just ask Philadelphia 76ers fans. They’ll tell you. Loudly.
In the meantime, people can only report what they hear - but that’s all they can do. And report they will. Yes, LeBron has used free agency for marketing purposes. He has used free agency to use the media, more precisely. But now the media is also using LeBron to drive hits to its websites and eyes to its television networks. I haven’t chekced any kinds of listing, but I would bet that the NBA has some kind of pre-free agency show on NBA TV on Wednesday night. So count the NBA amidst the users, as well. Hell, count Mesa while you’re at it. We’re not generating money, but we are using LeBron to generate thinking and ideas.
One final note for today. If you have ESPN Insider access, I highly recommend the free agency writings of Tom Haberstroh. Just today, he posted a piece on “The Bargain Bin,” which got me thinking that a few of the players listed - like Mike Miller, JJ Redick, and Anthony Morrow - could certainly be targeted by the Cavs as additions to a LeBron James-led squad.
I would even argue that Mike Miller - who is the same age as Joe Johnson - would be a very meaningful upgrade at the shooting guard position. It made me start to think about just how the addition of players in the mid-level exception range could change the outlook of the Cavaliers lineup around LeBron enough to influence his decision.
Derrick Rose, for example, may be young, and he may have made the All-Star team, but he’s still an upside player that doesn’t fit well alongside James. Young, we have to remember, does not always mean better (Glitch, I’m looking at you).
I could go on. But come July 8th, I may have gone on for no reason. So I think I’ll wait.
At 7 PM ET tonight on ESPN, the NBA draft airs. I’m perhaps stupidly excited about it, primarily for the likely flurry of trades I suspect will happen after the Wizards select John Wall at #1. History suggests there will be a lot of wheeling and dealing, and my prediction is that the Cavs will be involved in one way or another.
In case you haven’t been paying attention to the chatter, here’s a few Cleveland-relevant items to keep an eye out for:
1) Availability of First Round Picks
According to multiple sources, the following teams are sending signals that their first round picks are on the market for the right price: Indiana (#10 overall), New Orleans (#11 overall), Boston (#19 overall).
In addition, a few teams have multiple first round picks and would seem likely to deal one or more away. Minnesota holds #4, #16, and #23; Memphis holds #12, #25, and #28; OKC holds #18, #21, and #26; New Jersey holds #3 and #27; and Washington holds #1 and #30.
First, let’s take a step back and think about this: between them, those 5 teams I just mentioned hold 13 of the first 30 picks in the draft. I suspect that’s unprecedented but am not going to do the research to confirm.
Second, if we assume that the multi-pick teams all hold onto their highest selection (which is by no means a guarantee, but let’s run with it) and combine them with the teams open to shopping their sole first round selection, that totals 11 first-round picks potentially up for grabs tomorrow night.
If the Cavs don’t manage to snag one of those, I’ll be thoroughly surprised and more than a little disappointed. Since the end of the season, the front office has suggested that getting back into the draft will be a priority. Right now, it looks like they’ll have ample opportunity to make good on that suggestion.
2) Trade-ability of Mo + Delonte
I should start by noting that this item isn’t necessarily mutually exclusive of the previous one. But it’s difficult to say since this is all hypothetical so far.
In the case of Mo, I have no doubt that the Cavs would want to get back a draft choice. Whether or not it would be in the first round is hard to predict. I haven’t seen any chatter about Mo’s possible departure since his desperate plea to remain in Cleveland earlier today, but I believe that part of that is the usual smoke screen. If Portland really does have “strong interest,” I would be shocked if Chris Grant didn’t listen very closely to what they’re offering, even if he’s not desperate to shed Mo’s onerous contract and streaky play.
That said, Windhorst continues to maintain that the front office is much more involved in trade talks regarding Delonte than Mo. I’m going to go on a slight limb and predict that come Friday, Delonte will no longer have a locker in the Cavs’ facilities. His volatility off the court and his regression on court this past season have reduced him, sadly, to a walking $4MM in cap relief in the eyes of most GMs. (Remember, his contract expires this upcoming season, but only 500K of his $4.5MM salary is guaranteed if he’s waived by August 5th). If stable, we all know that Delonte can be a terrific contributor on the floor, but at this point I would guess that the teams who are interested in him aren’t interested for that reason. With cap space at a premium thanks to the Summer of Money and the other handful of teams really struggling financially, $4MM in savings is worth getting in the ring for.
The final thought on this point: after being humiliated by Tom Izzo’s rejection of his coaching offer, Reptile is going to want to make some kind of a splash to try to impress LeBron. Whether it’s Mo, Delonte, or some mixture of one and other players on the roster, I full expect that at least one familiar Cavaliers’ face will be bound for a new city by the end of the day tomorrow. Whether it’s a good decision or a knee-jerk reaction to past failure, though, will very much be up in the air.
3) The Wild Cards
There are no specific rumors I’m pointing to here. But as usual, there are a couple of franchises in this draft who are so jacked up that their movements are literally unpredictable. Minnesota is one; Golden State is another; Detroit and Memphis remain on the list by default; and despite Jeff Bower’s supposed competency, New Orleans becomes another because of George Shinn’s desperate need for financial relief. That’s a minimum of 5 teams that could do something totally crazy at the drop of a hat. The question becomes whether or not Chris Grant can manage to use that to his advantage.
