Not for a moment between the end of game 4 and the beginning of game 5 did I think this was the post I was going to be writing tonight.

Not only are the Cavs now officially on the brink of watching another season crumble to ash, they’re here because they were outperformed in every conceivable category en route to the worst home playoff loss in franchise history, a 32-point skull-fucking by the Celtics.

If you want a picture of how bad it was, check any part of the box score you want. But I’d say this sums it up as well as anything else: the only things separating LeBron from “Just Glen” Davis tonight in the three main statistical categories were 2 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 made FG, and 7 shot attempts. “Just Glen” shot 4-7 for 57% FG; Bron shot 3-14 for 21% FG. Both ended the night with 15 points.

From the standpoint of analysis, the time between right now and the beginning of game 6 is overflowing with story possibilities. I’ve already heard and read takes from a lot of people pointing the finger in several different directions. Some are utterly absurd. Take, for instance, Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley’s assertion that the Cavs can’t win unless Mo and Jamison “accept the challenge” of guarding Rondo and Garnett, two players that have absolutely torched their Cavs’ counterparts for years. It’s a little like the “effort” issue I wrote about after Sunday’s loss. Will / desire is one thing. Physical and skill limitations are entirely another. To paraphrase a friend of mine, I would love to sleep with Angelina Jolie tonight, but the barrier separating me from that goal is not that I just haven’t “accepted the challenge.” There are a whole set of tangible, factual problems with the goal. Similarly, I don’t think Mo and Jamison don’t want to shut down Rondo and Garnett. It’s that they’re simply not capable of doing it.

The core problem, the only thing that you can point to at the end of the day, was LeBron. From a pure statistical standpoint, his numbers were far below par. He denied in his press conference that he’s been passive the past two games. I would contest that notion. On the season, Bron averaged just shy of 7 shot attempts “at the rim” per game, along with another 1.5 inside of 10’. Sunday, he took 9 shots in the paint. Tonight he took a grand total of 3. Admittedly, that’s not entirely reflective of his offensive play because he also had 12 FTAs. But it’s also clearly below average.

As much as I value statistics, though, this is one case where the numbers alone don’t do the story justice. I could live with my team’s superstar having an off-night if he was still making an honest attempt to lead the team, to sculpt the attitude of the supporting cast, to make them play like the game meant something. I saw very little of that tonight, and I know I’m not alone in that assessment. Plain and simple, it looked to me like Bron absentee balloted the most important Cavs’ game of the 2010 playoffs.

Anyone who wants to point in another direction, consider this: without Bron, the rest of the Cavs’ team shot 46.2%, including 45% 3FG, and scored 73 points. Obviously, that’s an oversimplification. The Celtics shot 55% FG, went +10 REB, +5 AST, -7 TO, and on and on. But if I were to strictly tell you those first team offensive stats, would you have guessed that the Cavs won or lost that game?

As for the defensive aspect, I’ve now watched over 175 Cavs games in the past two seasons alone. I’ve seen Bron rally the defense. I’ve seen him tell the team to get their act together, get their heads in the game, and follow his lead. I know what that looks like, and I know how the team responds. None of that happened tonight, or in game 4, or game 2, for that matter. Yes, it takes a team effort to win. But it also takes a team leader to steer the ship. The Cavs did not have that leader tonight or in much of this series—and I’m not the only one who noticed.

If this was indeed LeBron’s final home game in a Cavs uniform, it would be an understatement to say he will leave behind a tainted legacy. As Mike tweeted tonight, the 48-point performance that willed the 2007 Cavs past a Pistons team with superior talent on their own home floor is a distant memory. In its place is tonight’s game, a lackluster 3-14 sleepwalk when his team and his franchise needed him the most.

That said, we all have to attempt to maintain some perspective here. While the highest form of that statement would probably involve asking ourselves why we all stake a part of our personal happiness on the performance of 12 men we have never before met playing a game over which we have no influence whatsoever, all that I really mean for now is that the series still isn’t over. Technically. To say that I hold out a great deal of hope for game 6 would be a bold lie. Unlikely as it may feel, though, the reality is that the Cavs only have to win two games in a row to escape the flood that’s now up to their chins and lurch on to the Eastern Conference Finals. 

Whether or not they do this, though, will be entirely dependent on LeBron, the man the team and the franchise has looked to for direction each of the past 7 years. It’s not about Coldstone’s strategic adjustments, Mo’s shooting percentage, Shaq’s minutes, or anything else we can dream up. It starts and ends with LeBron. Is this the point where he truly follows Jordan’s lead, looks at his team and says, “There is no way in hell I’m going to allow us to lose these next two games. Follow my lead.” Or is it the point where he folds and silently blames the front office, his supporting cast, fate, or anything else he can think of for a loss that most squarely rests on his own shoulders? We’ll find out Thursday.

If he gives in, though, it’s not unfair to say that the sports storytellers of the world have to take a step back and consider who LeBron James really is as a player. Is he the guy who pushed a team of misfits into the 2007 Finals through sheer fire and determination, or the guy who couldn’t outduel Paul Pierce in the 2008 Semis and completely no showed in the 2010 Semis when he was the leader of (record-wise) the best team in basketball?  To put it in terms of very recent NBA history, is he in the same conversation as Dwyane Wade, who only needed one serious post presence and a team of role players to win a title? Or is he Dirk Nowitzki, the captain who got a very talented team to the Finals once, melted down, and never got them close again? In short, how much does he really need around him to win at the highest level?

These are all questions that can be considered at length, but not before LeBron has one (and possibly two) more chances to rise above it. Make no mistake, his answer to this turmoil will determine the fate of the 2010 Cavs.

As for the repercussions beyond this playoff run, that’s a column for another day. Hopefully that day isn’t Thursday. 

-T

I’ve been writing effectively, and therefore rapidly, so I have some extra time to type up pre-game thoughts. I haven’t done this before, but here goes…

• The Rondo-Bron matchup sounds like it will happen in spurts, according to Brian Windhorst. This is logical and is more or less in line with what I wrote last night. To reassert, Bron can guard Rondo all he wants, but if the team doesn’t keep him off of the glass and out of transition, it won’t make a difference.

• Coldstone appears to also be ready to extend Jamario Moon’s minutes. This too makes a lot of sense. Delonte West has been so so in the series so far, and his defense has slipped from last season. This could be an effect of coming off of the bench and not getting consistent minutes. West is better at creating offense for himself and others, but Moon is better at getting in the passing lanes and uses his length to create steals. This helps the Cavs get out on the break and make easy buckets. It’s fair to weigh those qualities against Delonte’s. I might also weigh those qualities against Anthony Parker’s, but there seems to be little point in doing so, as Coldstone has decided to ride AP out. 

• The Cavs have lost the two fastest played games in this series: a 96 possession game 2 and a 97 possession game 4. Game 1 was 92 possessions, game 3 was 88. The tempo of the game then is something to watch vis-a-vis Rondo’s ability to kill Cleveland in transition. 

• As Tim wrote, 3P shooting is a factor. The Cavs are making about 3 less 3P shots a game in this series than they did in the regular season. Despite local radio clamoring for the Cavs to attack more, they’re actually averaging 27 shots at the rim against Boston, slightly up from their regular season average of 26.3.

• The big swings in this series have had to do with the Cavaliers offense and the Celtics defense. In the two Cleveland wins, they had Offensive Ratings (points per 100 possessions) of 109.8 and 140.9. Compare that to the two losses: 89.6 and 89.7. On the other hand, Boston’s Offensive Rating/Cleveland’s Defensive Rating have been within the same ballpark in all four games: 101.1, 108.3, 108.0, 100.0 - and, in fact, the Cavs best defensive game was a loss. 

• Finally, watch out for the rebound margin. After going +2.28 for the season in ORR Differential, the Cavs have been at -1.1, -6.9, +11.5, and -15.8 in this series. And Boston is not a good rebounding team. 

That’s all I have for now. If the Cavs execute at a level close to what they have in the regular season, they will win this game and win the series. If they don’t, we may be writing about the offseason much sooner than we thought. It will be interesting to see if the Cavs adjust their game plan towards making Paul Pierce beat them, something that would’ve been inconceivable two years ago. I suspect the shifts we see will be minor, however, and have more to do with execution than anything else. 

All of the recent chatter about the Cavs and the Celtics has revolved around whether or not LeBron James should - and will - guard Rajon Rondo tonight. 

So what’s my take? 

I don’t know, man. 

The thing about LeBron is that he is not a great on the ball defender. He might have made first team all defense, but he made that because of highlight plays. When I watch Bron defend, I often think about how bad of a defender he might become as he gets older, as he relies heavily on his speed, length, and athleticism to recover. When was the last time you saw Bron firmly lock someone down and prevent them from getting around him? Maybe last season, but I haven’t seen it too much this year. I remember thinking that game three against the Bulls was over when Bron started guarding Rose … well, that wasn’t the case. 

Despite reports to the contrary, which had Coldstone and Bron getting into it on the sidelines during game four, with Bron requesting that he guard Rondo and Mike telling him no, I heard a very tentative young man speaking at his press conference on Sunday. When asked if he wanted to guard Rondo, Bron didn’t step down from the challenge - did you expect him to in public? - but he didn’t exactly say I will guard Rondo, and I will stop him. He used phrases like “something to explore” and talked about how him guarding Rondo meant Mo Williams or Delonte West would have to guard Paul Pierce. He compared the Celtics to the Bulls, saying Chicago’s perimeter players - James Johnson and Kirk Hinrich - were not as dangerous as Ray Allen and Pierce. 

Why Bron hesitated is anybody’s guess. Maybe it was gamesmanship. No team wants to necessarily give away their strategy for the next game moments after the last one. Tape needs to be watched anyway. Collective decisions need to be made, etc. etc. Bron could also be worried about the effect locking down Rondo - if he can even do so - will have on his offense. Based on the two Cavalier losses in this series, we’ve seen that when Bron is not carving up the defense, the Cavs offense is not working. 

The question, in my mind, that Coldstone, Bron, Anthony Parker, and company have to be asking is whether or not it’s worth trying to put Bron on Rondo to start the game, just to see what happens. I’m not sure why Mo couldn’t stay on Allen, and Parker couldn’t guard Pierce (I’m also not sure why Delonte can’t guard Pierce, but that’s a different story). 

The deeper, more important question - and this one’s for the tape students - is whether the problem the Cavs have been having with Rondo has to do with what’s happening on the ball, or off the ball. Before game three, the talk was that the Cavs would put AP on Rondo, stay home on shooters, and make Rondo try to finish at the rim (remember, before this series, the Cavs blocked 1 out of every 5 shots Rondo took at the rim). This strategy was effective. In game four, Rondo crushed the Cavs in transition. That had very little to do with on the ball defense. 

So, should LeBron guard Rondo? Maybe. I don’t know. It won’t stop him from getting 18 rebounds, I’ll tell you that much. It won’t allow the Cavs to get offensive rebounds. It won’t allow them to get back in transition - the whole point of not crashing the offensive glass in the first place. 

Talking about who’s going to stand in front of Rondo when he brings the ball up the floor after a make is fine, but it’s the issue of transition, above all of the others, that needs to be corrected in order for the Cavs to win game five. 

And yes, making some shots from the perimeter would help with that as well.