This is the second in a series of posts about the Cavaliers’ potential options were they to partake in a sign and trade with LeBron James. You can read the first part here.
Assuming the projected $56.1M cap sticks and using salary numbers from HoopData, we can talk about which players might come back to Cleveland in a hypothetical sign and trade arrangement. Remember, since the Cavs are over the salary cap, the salaries going out / coming in must match within 125% + $100K. Before getting into this, I should say that if the Cavs tell James and his team that they’re open to a sign and trade, it opens the door for him to be dealt to any team in the NBA. For the sake of not letting things get out of control, however, I’ll stick to the teams with cap space for now. I’ll also assume that the Cavs wouldn’t be sending any other players out alongside James, although I’m willing to acknowledge that this could be rather unlikely. Yes, I know this is cheating. These proposed trades are based on the notion that LeBron’s salary next season, in a max deal, will be $16.6M (105% of his current salary - 30% of the cap would be $16.83M, but we’ll stick with $16.6M because the cap hasn’t officially been determined yet). This means that the salary totals involved in the trade would have to fall between $16.6M and $20.85M.
Washington Wizards: $23.4M in cap space
Now that the Wizards have won the draft lottery, their projected cap number has actually gone down $1.5M from what it would have been had the ping pong balls fallen true to the odds. The first pick in the draft costs $1.5M more than the fifth pick. As a side note, New Jersey’s projected cap number - as reported in part 1 - has now gone up by $900K, a result of the Nets coming up third in the lottery.
Washington is never mentioned as a possible destination for any free agents, particularly LeBron, so the likelihood of a sign and trade happening here is probably nil. I find this a little odd, since DC is a top 10 market (#9 to be exact), Ted Leonisis - a successful NHL owner is about to acquire the team - and a roster that now includes Gilbert Arenas and John Wall or Evan Turner. Andray Blatche, for lack of a better word, is a knucklehead, but showed some promise at the end of last season - and hey people used to say the same thing about Rajon Rondo. Washington also has the ability to go over the cap to resign the vastly underrated Mike Miller, who is also a friend of LeBron’s.
Having said that, I don’t expect LeBron to entertain the idea of playing for Washington. If he were to surprise us all, however, here’s what a sign and trade might look like:
Gilbert Arenas: $17.7M
As much as, I’m sure, Washington would love to make that trade, I’m pretty confident the Cavaliers would not. Can you imagine Dan Gilbert going to his corporate sponsors saying, “Guys, we just lost one of the greatest players to ever play this game … BUT we did get a pseudo-PG who is constantly injured and is just coming off of a gun charge!”
Yeah…
Sacramento Kings: $18.7M in cap space
For my money, Sacramento would be a fun place to watch LeBron play if he had to go somewhere else. It’s another smaller marker for one, and us smaller market people need to stick together in order to combat the sheer size and volume of the larger markets. Secondly, the Kings also have some interesting young players: Tyreke Evans, Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Omri Casspi, and Donte Greene.
Much like Dwyane Wade and James, I’m not sure Evans and James could play together, but Landry would be a nice fit at the 4 with LeBron playing the 3 and Greene and Casspi are long, athletic shooters.
Because Sacramento is a relatively young team, they’d have to package a lot of players together to hit the maximum salary number - which would also gut the core - unless the Cavs were willing to take:
Andres Nocioni: $6.9M
Beno Udrih: $6.5M
Francisco Garcia: $5.5M
Since Nocioni has 2 years left on his deal, and Udrih and Garcia have 3 years, I highly doubt this could ever come close to happening. Packaging Caspi ($1.3M - expiring), Thompson ($2.2M), Nocioni and Udrih would also get you there, and the Kings could even throw in Landry ($3M - expiring), too. That would make the deal more enticing for the Cavaliers, and it would also allow the Kings to rid themselves of the contracts of Nocioni and Udrih. However, Sacramento would lose three cost effective players in the deal, as well.
And LeBron’s not going to leave Cleveland to go to a smaller market that may be on the verge of moving to another city.
Los Angeles Clippers: $18M in cap space
The idea of playing for a team that’s owned by Donald Sterling should terrify James. LeBron is a hyper aware individual, so chances are it does, which means LeBron to the Clippers is unlikely.
Too bad. Because if he does choose to leave Cleveland, I have little doubt the Cavs could, relatively speaking, fleece the Clippers. And, the perverse side of me that hopes to see LeBron fail if he goes elsewhere, sees a Sterling-James partnership as a disastrous earthquake waiting to happen. Step #1: Sterling gives James max control. Step #2: Powerful earthquake of self-interest drives Los Angeles into the Pacific Ocean.
Since the Clippers have two players - Baron Davis and Chris Kaman - with big contracts, it’d be easy for them to pull off a deal. Therefore the Cavs could send James to LA for:
Baron Davis: $13M
Eric Gordon: $3M
Or
Chris Kaman: $11M
Blake Griffin: $5.4M
Or even the best fit, Davis and Griffin - and hopefully the Clippers next 10 draft picks, since picks hold no cash value).
Houston Rockets: -$3.6M in cap space
That’s not a typo. The Rockets do no have cap space. And yes, I said I was going to keep this sign and trade discussion to only teams with cap space, even though a sign and trade opens up the possibility of James going to any one of the other 29 teams in the NBA. But just to make this post - which is filled with a bunch of unlikely hypotheticals already - just a little more interesting, I want to talk about the Houston Rockets.
Why?
Because the Rockets prepared for the Summer of Money by gathering assets so that they could engage another team with a sign and trade since, historically, players never leave the team that can give them the most money (unless you’re Shaquille O’Neal). And because if I’m LeBron James, and I want to be a billionaire, and I want to do that by conquering China, I have to at least consider playing alongside Yao Ming.
And there’s good basketball reasons to do it, too. Yao’s a good jump shooter out to 15 feet, a great free thrower, and a giant, all qualities that would combine well with LeBron’s game.
So what could Houston offer?
Trevor Ariza: $6.3M
Kevin Martin: $10.6M
Or swap out Jared Jeffries for Ariza, whose contract at $6.9M expires after the 2011 season. Houston could also use three of the players they have in the $2M range - Kyle Lowry, Aaron Brooks, Chuck Hayes, Jordan Hill, or David Andersen to replace Ariza / Jeffries. Luis Scola at a $4.1M qualifying offer could also be packaged with one of the $2M players to achieve the same goal.
Houston has a collection of picks too from the Knicks and Clippers, as well as a bunch of players overseas whom they hold the rights to.
And thus ends my survey of the sign and trade landscape … at least for now. You can see why such a deal seems unlikely: largely, the teams the Cavs would be trading with would have to give up some or much of the talent LeBron would seemingly be interested in playing with to pull it off.
In other words, I don’t expect a sign and trade to happen - but when other people in the media start talking about the possibility of it, at least you know that Mesa has kept you informed.
