With eight games to go in the regular season, the Cavs are on the verge of locking up the #1 seed in the league for the second straight season. This, of course, means that playoff predictions are beginning to start up in earnest.
I’m not going to start looking at first round opponents just yet because the playoff seeding is still liable to shift too much her in the final two weeks. (I’d prefer not to waste a bunch of time talking about a first round match-up that never happens.) Instead, I want to begin to mentally prep myself (and everyone else, if they care) for the likely Eastern Conference Finals that we’ve been waiting for since last June: Cavs V. Magic, part 2.
Obviously, there are no guarantees that this series is going to happen, either. But practically every statistical measure I can find suggests that it should. Not only that, but the numbers also that if/when the match-up itself does happen, it’s likely to be excruciatingly close.
Here’s what the advanced team stats say right now.
Offensive Efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions):
Cavs = 109.2 (2nd); Magic = 108.5 (5th)
Defensive Efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions):
Cleveland and Orlando are the only two teams in the East that rank in the top 10 in both Off Eff and Def Eff. Atlanta is the only other East team to rank in the top 10 in Efficiency Differential, but their 8th-place number (+4.62) pales in comparison to the Cavs and Magic. It’s better than half, but not by much.
In fact, even the third place team in Efficiency Differential—the mighty Los Angeles Lakers—takes a noticeable step down from the top two. After tonight’s loss to the Hornets, LAL’s differential drops to +5.97, or less than two-thirds of the Cavs’ and Magic’s.
In a nut shell, what does all this mean? Basically, that if you give every team in the league an equal number of possessions, the Cavs and Magic are going to be the best overall at both scoring and defending. They’re also going to be noticeably in a different class than the third place team (LAL) from an overall standpoint.
In addition, John Hollinger’s power rankings rate Orlando and Cleveland as #1 and #2, respectively, in the league as of tonight. While Hollinger doesn’t explain the exact formula for his rankings, he does explain that it weighs a number of factors that the efficiency metrics I mentioned above do not. For instance, Hollinger’s system tries to control for strength of schedule. It also lends more statistical value to a team’s recent performance than to their early performance. While the exact metrics vary depending on the point in the season that the rankings are done, at this point, the system values the most recent 25% of games more heavily than the previous 75%.
If we look at Hollinger’s actual ratings (i.e. the numbers themselves), we see a repeat of the general conclusions of the efficiency differential rankings. Orlando currently ranks first with a score of 107.683; Cleveland ranks second with a score of 107.325; and Atlanta is the only other East team to rank in the top 10. (Their 104.003 ranking sits them in the #9 spot.)
In short, Hollinger’s system suggests that not only have the Cavs and Magic been the two best teams in the league over the entire season, they’ve also been the two best teams over the past few weeks. If it’s not immediately clear why this matters, consider the Celtics. They began the season looking like the true title contenders most of the old school experts predicted them to be. Right now, though, the Cs rank 11th in Hollinger’s system, due largely to their post All-Star break performance, which can hardly be labeled much better than “decent”—especially if you value things like scoring margin over wins and losses (which Hollinger’s system does).
Simply put, the Celtics are still winning a fair amount of games, but the wins aren’t by as much and the losses are by much more than they were early in the season. And if Hollinger is to be believed, this matters more than their final record. Exhibit A in this category is the 2007 Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs. The Mavs finished the season with 9 more wins than the Spurs, but the Spurs killed the Mavs in scoring margin. The 67-win Mavs were then bounced in the opening round by Golden State, while the Spurs went on to win the title.
Conversely, the Cavs and Magic are both still balling at a high level.
Oh, and just to round out the list of team stats, the Cavs are 2nd in the league in True Shooting Percentage at 57.3%; the Magic are 3rd at 56.8%; and the Cavs are also 2nd in the league in Total Rebounding Rate (% of available rebounds grabbed) at 52.45, while the Magic are 4th at 51.87. In case you’re wondering, the teams separating Cleveland and Orlando from the top of the list AND from each other in both of these last two categories are all Western teams.
In fact, what becomes really remarkable as you go down the lists is how close the Cavs and Magic are even in some of the categories where neither performs particularly well. For instance, Orlando is tied for 19th in the league in Turnover Rate (% of possessions ending in a TO) with a 13.69 rating; Cleveland is 17th with a 13.58 rating. Orlando is 25th in Offensive Rebounding Rate at 24.49; Cleveland is 21st at 25.18. So neither team is particularly great on the defensive glass, and neither is particularly good at holding onto the ball. Yet in both of these cases where they suck (relatively speaking), the Cavs and Magic still suck about equally as bad as one another.
Simply put, both teams meet strength with strength and weakness with weakness. They also even play the game at an almost identical pace. Orlando averages 93.7 possessions per 48 minutes (24th overall); Cleveland averages 93.0 (26th). As Mike pointed out recently, the pace similarity also suggests that the two teams are governed by very similar coaching philosophies: execute in the half-court unless a blatant opportunity to run presents itself, because this approach will best allow you to get back on defense effectively.
Again, there’s no way for us to know how any of this is going to play out. Injuries or statistical anomalies could prevent the match-up from either happening at all, or from playing out in an unexpected way. But one thing is for certain: if the statistics are accurate, there is no feasible way that I’m going to be able to watch the Eastern Conference Finals sober, because the victor is going to be determined by the thinnest of margins.
Since Shaq is doing his best to make this game about him vs. Da-wight Howard, I thought it might be interesting to try to see how consequential the Diesel’s presence has been on Da-wight’s performance. To do that, let’s compare Da-wight’s play against the Cavs this year to what he did in the pre-Shaq era, specifically the Eastern Conference Finals.
DA-WIGHT STATS: 2009-10 Regular Season Vs. Cavs
2/11/10 vs. Cavs - 31 min, 19 pts on 6-9 FG and 7-10 FT, 11 reb, 2 blk, 5 fouls
11/11/09 vs. Cavs - 32 min, 11 pts on 3-3 FG and 5-12 FT, 7 reb, 1 blk, 5 fouls
2009-10 AVG vs. Cavs - 31.5 min, 15 pts on 75%FG and 54.5%FT, 9 reb, 1.5 blk, 5 fouls
DA-WIGHT STATS: 2009 Eastern Conference Finals Vs. Cavs
ECF Game 6 - 41 min, 40 pts on 14-21 FG and 12-16 FT, 14 reb, 1 blk, 5 fouls
ECF Game 5 - 37 min, 24 pts on 8-10 FG and 8-13 FT, 10 reb, 1 blk, 6 fouls
ECF Game 4 - 49 min, 27 pts on 10-16 FG and 7-9 FT, 14 reb, 3 blk, 5 fouls
ECF Game 3 - 28 min, 24 pts on 5-8 FG and 14-19 FT, 9 reb, 0 blk, 6 fouls
ECF Game 2 - 38 min, 10 pts on 3-8 FG and 4-8 FT, 18 reb, 2 blk, 4 fouls
ECF Game 1 - 38 min, 30 pts on 14-20 FG and 2-2FT, 13 reb, 0 blk, 6 fouls
2009 ECF AVG - 38.5 min, 26 pts on 65%FG and 70%FT, 13 reb, 1.2blk, 5 fouls
As usual, the caveat here is that we’re looking at a very small sample size. If we’re willing to accept that, though, the most dramatic differences in the comparison are in minutes, points, and rebounds. Da-wight is averaging 7 fewer minutes, 11 fewer points, and 4 fewer rebounds per game against the 2009-10 Cavaliers than the 2008-9 squad. (Sidenote: he’s also about -16%FT this year. Although it’s dubious to attribute that to anything the Cavs are doing, it highlights the notion that Da-wight’s shooting +10%FT higher in the ECF than his career average could actually have been the single most significant offensive factor in determining the winner of that series.)
I don’t have the wherewithal to try to convert these totals to per-36 minute numbers, but even if I did, I wouldn’t necessarily want to. This is because the minutes Da-wight is playing become significant in a different way: namely, regardless of his rate of production, how long is he able to stay on the floor against the Cavs’ new line-up?
Historically, Da-wight has problems with other true big men. He doesn’t like to be roughed up. He doesn’t like to play physical. Even though he’s not fouling any more (in terms of per-game totals) when he has to play part of the time against Shaq, the numbers suggest that on average, he’s racking up those fouls more quickly. Remember, for all their off-season additions, the Magic still only have two centers and, to my knowledge, almost never go small enough to warrant leaving both Da-wight and Gortat on the bench.
So if Da-wight’s minutes are down against the Cavs, the most likely explanation is that Stan Van is feeling forced to pull him quicker due to foul trouble. The facts seem to bear that out. Da-wight had 3 fouls by the 8:22 mark in the 2nd quarter of tonight’s game, forcing him to sit out the remainder of the half. It was a similar situation in the first game, too.
Does this surprise me? Not really. But it indicates that the biggest reason (literally) that “The Great Danny Ferry” felt he had to get Shaq is, in fact, working as planned.
One thing that drives me crazy about most sports analysts is their ignorance or unwillingness to discuss context. I’m eyeing a more in-depth post about this early next week, but for now, let’s take a step back from micro-analyzing this one Cavs’ game to see how their competitors in the East have been doing.
After tonight’s win, the Cavs are 20-7 and have sole possession of the third seed in the conference. They’re percentage points behind the 19-6 Atlanta Hawks for the #2 spot and have the same number of wins as the first-place Celtics, who have played 2 fewer games. The Magic are currently #4 with a 19-7 record.
For all our nitpicking about the content or style of the victories, the Cavs have now put together a 5-game winning streak to rebound from the ugly back-to-back losses to Memphis and Houston.
Meanwhile, Boston’s winning streak was snapped tonight on their own home court by Philly. Certain high profile fans of theirs took enough time out from watching “Jersey Shore” to blame the loss on the refs’ ejecting their 6th man. Yet in their 12 home games to date, the Celtics are just 8-4. The Cavs, meanwhile, are 11-2, with only the 12-2 Hawks above them by virtue of having played an additional game at Philllips Arena.
While I was bitching about the Cavs only beating the Nets by 10, the Magic got obliterated by the Heat in Miami, 104-86, with Dwyane Wade sitting the entire 4th quarter. At one point in the first half the Heat led by 29 points. (Mind you, this was a mere two games after the visiting Memphis Grizzlies demolished Miami by 28.)
The Cavs are also 5-1 in division play — the same division record as the Celtics. The Hawks are .500 within their division at 2-2, the Magic are 3-2. Perhaps most surprising, both of those two teams are behind the Heat at 4-2.
In their last 10 games, the Cavs are locked up with Atlanta for the second-best record in the conference at 8-2. Only Boston is ahead at 9-1. Orlando is a game back of the Cavs and Hawks at 7-3.
If we widen the lens to conference play, Orlando is the #1 team at 15-4, with one of their 4 losses coming in Amway Arena to the Cavs. Boston is #2 at 13-4, the Cavs are #3 at 13-5, and Atlanta is #4 at 10-4.
In terms of efficiency differential, Boston leads the conference at +9.2. Atlanta comes in second at +8.8. The Cavs are third at +5.5, barely edging Orlando at +5.4.
What do all these numbers mean? It’s really hard to say without a more in-depth look. For instance, how do the different divisions within the East compare to one another competitively? Is the Cavs’ 5-1 Central Division record more impressive than Boston’s Atlantic Division record because the teams are better? Who’s had a tougher schedule against the West so far?
One consistent conclusion to draw, though, is that the Cavs are indeed playing with a favorable chance to win the conference in the regular season. Obviously, there’s still two-thirds of the season left to play. But while I’m not going to encourage everone to go rushing to the standings to keep an eye on Boston, Orlando, and Atlanta at all times, it’s a good reminder not to get high or too low without understanding the context. Because for every frustrating game the Cavs have, there’s more than likely something equal or worse happening to one of the other “elite” Eastern teams.
Cavs go to Dallas to play the Mavericks on Sunday. Dirk a possible scratch due to an ugly injury in tonight’s game, where he ended up with bits of Carl Landry’s broken teeth in his elbow(!). The next two weeks will be a very interesting measuring stick, as the competition on this road trip (Dallas, Phoenix, the Lakers) is stiff, followed by a rematch with the Rockets and a home-and-home with Atlanta right before New Year’s. Let’s see where they end up at the dawn of 2010.
