To give everyone a small break from our coverage of the NBA playoffs, I figured I would write about something that, I anticipate, could overwhelm Game 3 of Cavs-Bulls tonight all around the country and in Cleveland in particular: the fucking NFL Draft.
In general, I think the hype that exists over the NFL is absurd. My Twitter feed blew up on Tuesday when, of all things, the regular season schedule was released. Yes, the schedule is a big deal for the NFL and its teams, but why it is dramatic news for the casual fan I really don’t know. At the moment, I’m locked in a personal, internal debate over what is erroneously more hyped - the NFL Draft or the NFL preseason. I guess I’ll go with the preseason because at least the draft matters.
During a recent press conference, the Browns confirmed something I’d suspected for a long time: they had spoken to the St. Louis Rams about trading for the #1 pick in the draft and the rights to choose quarterback Sam Bradford. Why was I not surprised by this? Well, because all Mike Holmgren thinks about is QBs. When he falls asleep he dreams about them. When he has sex with his wife, he imagines a barrage of accurately thrown short passes leading a team down the field and into the end zone (I have no evidence to confirm this last statement, sadly).
In short, Mike Holmgren is a quarterback guy. Naturally, he’s going to want the best QB in the draft - especially if he thinks he’s a franchise player.
Historically speaking, all of the data on the NFL Draft says that picking in the top ten sucks. Picking a quarterback in the top ten sucks more. As Malcolm Gladwell wrote, nobody in the NFL knows how to pick a quarterback. The skills that are on display in college are not the skills needed to succeed in the pros. Predicting future success based on past success is always somewhat of a crap shoot, but with quarterbacks in the NFL, it’s a crap shoot and a shit show. Even worse, because of the salary structure in the NFL, a team has to commit an incredible amount of money to the first pick in the draft. They have to spend a load of money just to participate in a high risk gamble. More so, as we’ve written about before, football is not a sport in which one player can create a Super Bowl championship. It takes a lot of guys.
Logically then, it makes absolutely no sense to trade up to draft a quarterback at #1.
So what do I think the Browns should do in the draft tonight?
I think they should trade up to draft Sam Bradford.
Yes, this goes against everything I believe in, e.g. calculated risk and logic-based decision making. I rarely believe in “going with my gut.” Choices made from emotion tend to be misinformed.
Why then do I think the idea of trading up to get Bradford is a good one?
I have to admit that I have a great feeling about Bradford’s future as a pro. I have no evidence of this. I never even saw him play in college. I’ve come to this conclusion almost entirely because of how I saw Bradford handle himself while being interviewed after his shoulder was injured in the Fall. I was impressed with his poise, demeanor, and focus. When I looked for a picture of him to throw up at the top of this post, I found nothing “unsavory” after going through the first 5 pages of Google Image Search. There were no party pictures of Sam, bikini-clad photos of his girlfriend, or documents of his having been in a hot tub with four girls (Shout to Matt Leinart. The girl on the far left is a prototype, bro). I haven’t always been a big believer in character translating into winning, but I think my feelings on that subject have evolved over time. To be great, you need to be dedicated (unless you’re Tiger Woods, apparently). This other bullshit distracts you.
Having said that, I’m also a big believer in the importance of throwing accuracy at the quarterback position. Bradford is top tier in this department, according to reports. I also believe that if you put a man like Holmgren in charge of your team, and he sees a quarterback he believes in, you do what you can to go get him. Quarterbacks may not create Super Bowl Rings … but they are critical to getting one.
So what do I think the Browns will do?
I think they’ll either draft someone at the #7 spot or trade down. Logic and Tom Heckert will win. Plus, Holmgren will have the added bonus of then being able to pull a quarterback out of the dust in a later round - someone perhaps no one else believes in - and see if he can help make him great. Turning something into nothing is, after all, one of the biggest ego boosts for coaches and player personnel execs. It’s the reason so many bad players get drafted on potential.
We’ll see what happens around 8 PM tonight. I, for one, will be watching the Cavs.
