With the Cavs set to square off against New Jersey Wednesday night, it seemed like an appropriate time to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of that franchise’s case for LeBron.
New Jersey’s biggest advantage—and I say this with complete seriousness—is part owner Jay-Z. Without a doubt, Jay is one of LeBron’s heroes (see: substitute father figures). For proof, all you have to do is go to the Twitter feed of Roots’ mastermind Questlove and read all about Bron’s presence at the show Jay did at MSG tonight. Bron’s relationship with Mr. Carter is well-documented, it’s strong, and it’s going to continue. And you can guarantee that the main reason Jay bought into the Nets was to fulfill the goal of one day getting LeBron on that team. This is a somewhat frightening prospect because historically, Jay-Z is a guy who gets what he wants (see: record sales, pop cultural significance, Beyonce).
Incoming Nets majority owner Mikhail Prokhorov is supposed to assist in this pursuit. He’s a man with resources, to be sure. Prokhorov was #40 on Forbes’s 2009 Billionaires list with an estimated net worth of $9.5B. If you want to believe all the hype, he will be irresistible to Bron because money will be no object. This applies to both salaries for his supporting cast and any off-hours excess that we can imagine. He’s going to be a whirlwind that sweeps through the NBA and blows away every other penny-hoarding owner. The Nets, in short, will be a juggernaut that LeBron will be powerless to resist.
There are only a few small problems with this outlook.
The first of these problems is that the 2009-10 Nets are still in danger of going down in infamy as the worst team in NBA history. Today, they stand at an embarrassing 6-53. Another 4 wins are needed to put them over the 9-73 basement floor installed by the 1972-73 Sixers. Strictly based on their pace so far, it seems unlikely that this will happen.
Even more troubling for the Nets, though, is that no one in the league is able to figure out WHY they’re 6-53. After trading Vince Carter, I doubt there were many NBA speculators out there penciling the Nets into the post-season. I doubt anyone would have been terribly impressed with your fortune-telling abilities if you’d predicted that they would be in last place in the Atlantic. But to be on pace to be historically bad? That’s an entirely different story.
The Nets roster is arguably less of a wasteland than the Knicks’. (For a recap of their players and next year’s salary commitments, see Hoop Data’s feature here.) Unlike Donnie Walsh’s squad, the most promising elements of that roster are all signed for next year, with salary cap space remaining above and beyond them. Though he’s been hurt at various times throughout this year, Devin Harris was selected as an All-Star reserve last season. Brook Lopez is one of the most promising and skilled young Centers in the game right now. And I think that we all remember Courtney Lee from last year. Those three guys on their own should be able to get the Nets to at least 13 wins this season. Yet the squad isn’t even halfway there, with only 23 games left to play.
Perhaps part of this can be blamed on their coaching situation. Lawrence Frank was dismissed early in the season. Kiki Vandeweghe stepped onto the sidelines to replace him…by all accounts, against his will. Kiki (I refuse to type out “Vandeweghe” more than twice in a post, and that right there was #2) will clearly be out of the coach’s seat next season, and Prokhorov will undoubtedly bring in a big name to take over. Unless they’re indeed able to bag Coach K before free agency begins, LeBron would be given free reign to choose his own coach as a part of the Nets’ offer. So any instability attributable to Kiki will be long gone.
The question is, will it really matter? As he’s stated many times, LeBron is all about winning. I didn’t always use to believe that, but I do now. Barring a complete disaster in the playoffs, the Cavs will at least get to the Eastern Conference Finals. Assuming that level of success, they’ll have made it to the ECF or farther in 3 of the last 4 seasons. If they make it to the Finals, that will be the second time in 4 years. To go from that level of consistent success to the team that will undoubtedly finish as the worst in basketball—and possibly the worst in the NBA’s existence—would paint LeBron as the biggest hypocrite in sports history. Which is exactly why this season is such a disaster for New Jersey.
The Heat are flirting with the possibility of barely missing the playoffs in the year heading into Dwyane Wade’s free agency, but at least they’re on the doorstep and will probably end up making it in, even if it’s just for another first round exit. The Knicks are a sorry excuse for a pro basketball team, but they at least have the lure of being able to sign another max guy alongside LeBron. (Much like I’ve said about Sam Presti in the past, it’s always more advantageous to be able to sell potential for greatness than actual results.) The Nets, however, have neither of these things going for them. The best they can hope for is to sell Bron on the idea that Devin Harris when healthy is an All-Star, and Brook Lopez will be there soon.
The immediate counter-punch to this idea comes back to the record. As Mike said yesterday, it’s illogical to argue that just because Mo is widely regarded among casual fans as the second-best player on a very good team, he deserves to be an All-Star. Rod Thorn or Prokhorov would argue that it’s illogical to assume that just because the best player(s) on their roster on a very bad team, it doesn’t mean that they are NOT All-Stars. But that case could be made a lot more forcefully if the team wasn’t on its way to being the losing-est team ever. As we often say in sports, great players—and even very good ones—find ways to win in close games. If the Nets are carrying two guys on their roster that they want to pitch as once-and-future All-Stars, then those guys have to be able to will their team past that all-time worst mark. So far, that hasn’t happened. And that’s a reality that, despite all of the Russian oil money and Jay-Z love, I don’t think Bron can dismiss.
The other major disaster for the Nets is that for the foreseeable future, the location in front of their name will remain “New Jersey.” Though a ground-breaking ceremony for the forthcoming Atlantic Yards project will be held in Brooklyn this month, the Nets recently announced plans to play at least the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons at the Prudential Center in Newark. Ownership’s hope is to have the new arena at Atlantic Yards ready for the 2012-13 season. That may or may not happen, given the usual delays that happen in massive construction projects—even those without the type of aggressive protest movement this one has swirling around it. There’s also the potential for more trouble, given that Bruce Ratner’s real estate development company is involved in an ongoing investigation for corruption.
One thing is for sure, though: the franchise’s current situation has provided Jay and Prokhorov the opportunity to show just how convincing they can really be. Have at it, gentlemen.
-T
