August 11, 2010
Why Should We Care If The Cavs Are on National TV or Not?

I’ve gotten the impression today that people care about how often their favorite NBA team will be on national television. The schedule, which was released earlier this afternoon, has the Cavs down for three national games - December 2 against Miami, March 6 against New Orleans, and January 9 in Phoenix. 

Why would anyone give a shit that the NBA and its television partners aren’t that interested in showing Cleveland’s games?  Or, for that matter, why would any fan of any team be sad, disappointed, or angry that their beloved organization will not be seen on TNT, ESPN, ABC, or NBA TV?

My initial answer to these questions was simple: who the hell knows?

But then I started thinking about it a little more closely.

For fans who live out of market and can’t fork over the cash for NBA League Pass, I understand why they would be upset. I also get why someone might perceive their favorite team being shut out (or all but shutout) of national TV games as a personal slight against the players they root for, an indication that the powers that be think your team is going to blow. 

I would, however, disagree with this perception. To my knowledge, Oklahoma City, for example, had no scheduled national television games last year. This year they got 15. Football is harder to predict than basketball, but we all remember, as well, how many nationally televised games the Browns were awarded after they won 10 games in 2007. And we also remember how that turned out. 

My point here is that the perception of the NBA and its television partners - the same people who employ Mike Wilbon, Jamal Mashburn, and Jalen Rose - is not necessarily an indicator of how well your team is going to perform over the course of the season. If anything, it is an indication of whether or not they think casual fans will want to watch your team’s games. Which, in my opinion, is largely irrelevant. 

Still, there does seem to be some sentiment out there that we want others to look at our team the same way we look at them. If we like the Cavs, we want everyone else to like them, too. Humans like consensus. We like community. We like being accepted.

At least most of us do. Some of us create websites that spend a lot of words in the name of pissing people off.  

Ultimately though, I have to agree with the air of frustration I feel out there in the winds of Northeast Ohio on this subject. Yes, I am actually going to go with the grain on this one … albeit for a slightly different reason than I’ve outlined above.  

What is it? 

With so few nationally televised games, it means I’m going to have to listen to Fred McCleod and Austin Carr a whole lot more than I have in the past, and even that was a whole lot more than I ever wanted to. 

Shit.

More McCleod. More Carr. 

When LeBron signed with Miami, I didn’t think about this terrible side effect. 

Uh oh. 

1:00am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/936171981/nbaschedule
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FILED UNDER: Cavs NBA Scheduling 
April 9, 2010
Cavs / Bulls Bazooka Point: Fun with Scheduling

Tonight, instead of micro-analyzing this one game, I want to take a look at the ripple effect the Cavs’ scheduling over the final two weeks of the season could have on the playoff race in both conferences.

With the #1 overall seed secure as of Sunday night, Coldstone went into the final six games having decided to scale back Bron’s minutes (at Bron’s request), irrelevant of opponent. He made a conscious decision going into Tuesday’s game that Bron would rest the 4th quarter and be inactive for Thursday.

Of course, this decision had a big impact on the outcome of those two games. Bron played 36 minutes against Toronto at home on Tuesday. The Cavs won. Tonight, Bron was in a suit instead of a uniform. The Cavs lost. 

The global result? The Cavs have inadvertently created a four-game playoff between Toronto and Chicago for the 8th spot.  Those two teams now have identical records, with Toronto holding the tie-breaker based on their record in the season series.

Now, had their last two opponents been reversed, the Cavs could have all but cemented Toronto as their 1st round opponent. In this imaginary scenario, the Cavs would’ve played Bron 36 minutes against Chicago on Tuesday, likely resulting in a win, then rested him against the Raptors on Thursday, likely resulting in a loss. The Raptors would thus be heading into this weekend with a 1 game lead over Chicago.

Instead, the two teams are deadlocked at 38-40 with very similar schedules the rest of the way.

Chicago plays at New Jersey Friday night and at Toronto Sunday, before ending the season on a back-to-back against Boston and at Charlotte on Tuesday & Wednesday.

Toronto plays at Atlanta Friday night, home against Chicago Sunday, at Detroit Monday, and against the Knicks at home on Wednesday.

Theoretically, Chicago should beat New Jersey Friday, but Boston may still play their starters Wednesday if they want to hang onto the 3-seed. (More on this later.) Charlotte has a 4-game cushion at the 7 spot, so in all likelihood they should be resting their starters on Wednesday, making that game a give-away to the Bulls. In short, the Bulls should be 2-1 not including whatever happens against Toronto.

The Raptors, on the other hand, will lose to Atlanta, but *should* be capable of beating Detroit and New York. This would make them 2-1 not including whatever happens against Chicago.

Sunday’s game between the Raptors and Bulls thus has the potential to be a one-game play-in, NCAA style, for the 8-seed and the right to face off against the Cavs. In this case, the Cavs’ scheduling has made them unwitting champions of sports democracy.

However, the ripple effect doesn’t stop there.

After losing to Denver tonight, the Lakers’ record sinks to 55-23. While this still gives them a 3.5 game lead for the first seed in the West, it also knots them with Orlando for the overall 2-seed. 

Orlando’s remaining four games are against New York, at Cleveland, at Indiana, and against Philly. In short, the Cavs are the only legitimate team left on their schedule—but with the huge caveat that the starters are likely to rest again. Odds thus favor Orlando going 4-0 instead of 3-1 to end the season. This would boost their record to 59-23.

The Lakers’ remaining four games are at Minnesota, home against Portland, home against Sacramento, and “at” the Clippers.  Like the Magic, that’s 3 cake-walks and one game against a legit team. Unlike the Cavs, though, the Blazers are still fighting tooth and nail for their playoff positioning. Combined with their consistent success against the Lakers (Portland has taken 9 of the last 10), there’s a sizable chance that the Lakers go 3-1 instead of 4-0 to end the season. This would solidify their season record at 58-24, or one game worse than Orlando’s likely season record.

In other words, it’s entirely possible that the Lakers will end up as the overall 3-seed rather than the overall 2-seed. Meaning, of course, that barring a near-miracle, the Eastern Conference champion will hold home court advantage in the Finals this year—partially thanks to the Cavs, even if they’re not the Eastern Conference’s representative in the Finals. 

Finally, the Cavs’ regular season finale will be at Atlanta. The Cavs are all but guaranteed to rest their starters in this one. Combined with Atlanta’s sterling home record (32-7), it’s safe to chalk this one up for the Hawks. That leaves Atlanta’s other three games as: home against Toronto, at Washington, and at Milwaukee. They should go at least 3-1, and possibly 4-0, with the Bucks game as the question mark.

By contrast, Boston plays home against Washington, at Milwaukee, at Chicago, and home against Milwaukee.  The Celts are almost guaranteed to lose a minimum of one of these games, making them at best 3-1 and possibly 2-2. Since the Celtics own the first tie-breaker against Atlanta by virtue of being division champs (whereas Atlanta will finish 2nd in the Southeast), the only danger for Boston is finishing with a worse overall record.

Here again, the Cavs potentially play the spoiler by resting against the Hawks. If the Cavs were to go full-mode against Atlanta, it’s likely that they would force Atlanta’s record in the final four games to 3-1 at best, and possibly 2-2 if the Hawks also lose to the Bucks. That scenario would lock Atlanta into the same likely record as the Celtics, which would in turn drop the Hawks to 4th in the East because of the tie-break situation.

Admittedly, a big part of this is conjecture. It’s hard to predict what each of the teams I mentioned above are going to actually do in this final stretch of the season. But if things play out the way their records suggest they should, the Cavs will be factors in the seeding of both conferences without winning another game.

The even slightly bigger point here is a good reminder before the playoffs start: randomness / luck matters. It also manifests itself in all kinds of different forms, all of which are completely out of the team’s control, and even moreso, the fans’ control.

In other words, get your seat belts ready. The post-season is almost here, and it’s going to be a wild ride.

-T

12:09am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/507707940/cavs-bulls-bazooka-point-fun-with-scheduling
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FILED UNDER: NBA Cavs Bazooka Point Scheduling