The big buzz - amongst everyone who’s already determined LeBron James will leave Cleveland when he becomes a free agent on midnight of July 1st - is about the possibility of a sign and trade. While I think there is a significant chance James stays with the Cavaliers, I can’t fault people for wanting to talk about a sign and trade. It is at least progressive and forward thinking in the sense that it involves conversations about building for the future and maximizing assets in order to do so.
As we all know, after all, the Cavaliers have not won a title with LeBron in town.
Assuming the projected $56.1M cap sticks and using salary numbers from HoopData, we can talk about which players might come back to Cleveland in a hypothetical sign and trade arrangement. Remember, since the Cavs are over the salary cap, the salaries going out / coming in must match within 125% + $100K.
Before getting into this, I should say that if the Cavs tell James and his team that they’re open to a sign and trade, it opens the door for him to be dealt to any team in the NBA. For the sake of not letting things get out of control, however, I’ll stick to the teams with cap space for now. I’ll also assume that the Cavs wouldn’t be sending any other players out alongside James, although I’m willing to acknowledge that this could be rather unlikely.
Yes, I know this is cheating.
These proposed trades are based on the notion that LeBron’s salary next season, in a max deal, will be $16.6M (105% of his current salary - 30% of the cap would be $16.83M, but we’ll stick with $16.6M). This means that the salary totals involved in the trade would have to fall between $16.6M and $20.85M.
Chicago Bulls: $20.6M in cap space
Luol Deng: $11.3M
Kirk Hinrich: $9M
And wow that would be a terrible deal. I like Deng more than a lot of people I know, but he’s owed money through 2014 and Hinrich is owed another $8M in the 2011-12 season. Neither player comes anywhere close to filling the gap that would be left by James (in fairness, no two players probably will), and both have bad contracts.
The Bulls could throw Joakim Noah ($3.1M), Taj Gibson ($1.1M), and James Johnson ($1.7M) on top of Deng, but I doubt James goes to Chicago without Noah - unless he truly hates him - and I would consider Anderson Varejao Noah’s equal anyway. Taj Gibson is Glitch without the upside.
Miami Heat: $41.5 in cap space
A sign and trade with the Heat is literally impossible unless Miami were to sign a player(s) who is not currently under contract, or a three team deal - maybe with a franchise that is under the cap - could be swung.
In other words, next.
Side note: Remember when there was a debate between Michael Beasley and Derek Rose for the #1 pick? I believe that if Chicago hadn’t won the lottery, Beasley would’ve went first, and Miami may have had a stronger two man core of Dwayne Wade and Rose to add to this offseason. Of course, they still would have had a two man core…
I maintain that Pat Riley did a disservice to Wade, to Miami, and to the NBA by tanking for the past three seasons - no matter what happens this offseason - but that’s another story for another day.
New York Knicks: $34.5M in cap space
The Knicks are a semi-interesting case only because they open the door to one of the major conversations the Cavaliers front office will be having if it becomes clear James is steadfast on going to another team:
Is it better to get assets in a sign and trade or let James walk and focus on cap space in 2010 and/or 2011?
I bring this up because the Knicks would likely dangle Eddy Curry, who has one year left on his deal at $11.3M. The Knicks could also sign and trade David Lee, giving him to the Cavaliers along with Curry for a combined salary that would fall within the necessary limits.
In this scenario, the Cavs could be in a position to get a quality player in Lee and cap space in 2011, which could be hampered by a lockout and will be governed by a new collective bargaining agreement.
What no one knows is what free agency will look in 2011. Will it still be a relative gamble, where teams largely overpay for talent and run the risk of getting locked into bad contracts (Larry Hughes), or will it be restructured to be more favorable to the owners than to the players?
While all of the signs point to the latter, no one can be certain.
If the Cavaliers let (or force) LeBron to walk without a sign and trade, it will give them about $9.9M to play with in free agency this offseason. Right now I would be against the team signing anyone with that money because of the uncertainty surrounding the new CBA and the fact that star players come in the draft, not free agency. No one wants to hear this, but if LeBron leaves, the Cavs should be trying to get back into the lottery as soon as f’ing possible.
New Jersey Nets: $26.3M in cap space
I touched on this with the Bulls, but the Nets provide something else for James to consider - is he willing to give up maximum money (by this I mean a 6 year deal) and leave without a sign and trade so that the team he’s going to is able to keep all of its assets?
The numbers are close, for example, on the Nets giving the Cavaliers the following players for James:
Devin Harris: $9M
Yi Jianlian: $4M
Terence Williams: $2.2M
Courtney Lee: $1.4M
But then LeBron has to go to a New Jersey team that no longer has a point guard who was once an all star. And who knows what kinds of draft picks the Cavs might be able to force out of their trading partner, as well.
As many people have already written, we’re going to learn a lot about LeBron James in the window after July 1st.
I’ll be back on Monday to write about more potential sign and trade options with different teams.
