November 16, 2010
Cavs / Sixers Bazooka Point

The Cavs managed to return to .500 by shooting down the visiting Seventy-Sixers last night. After an inconsistent first half, they took control in the third quarter and never really looked back.

One area that stuck out to me tonight was perimeter defense. In the first half, the Cavs simply weren’t contesting any shots outside of the paint. Some times it was because of late rotations, other times a seeming unwillingness to close out. The Sixers took advantage of these open mid-range and long-range shots until half time, knocking down 7 of 15 shots outside the paint in the first quarter and 7 of 14 in the second quarter.

However, there was a major course-correction on this front in the second half. For the final 24 minutes, the Cavs seemed to make defending the perimeter—and defending in general—a much higher priority. The second half saw the Sixers take only 17 more shots from outside the paint and connect on only 3 of them (17.6% FG, if you’re keeping track).

On its own, this fact could hide an ugly truth, i.e. the Sixers took fewer shots from outside because the Cavs’ interior D was weak. Thankfully this wasn’t the case. The Cavs were also defensively efficient in the paint in the second half, holding Philly to 7 of 17 there (41.2% FG).

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Byron Scott benched Glitch about halfway through the third quarter and kept him there for the rest of the game. He was getting consistently lit up for most of the first half. But with Joey Graham and Jamison as the front line, the vise started to tighten. And boy, is that a sentence I never expected to write.

Overall, the Sixers shot only 43.0% for the game and managed only 93 points. I would love to give you the defensive efficiency numbers, but Hoop Data’s advanced stat box scores haven’t yet been posted for last night’s games as I’m writing this. But the strong defense complemented a more fluid offense—28 assists leading to 37 overall FGs and 8 of 20 three-pointers (40% 3FG)—to create a relatively complete game for the team.

They’ll have their work cut out for them with back-to-back road games against New Orleans and San Antonio this weekend, but better for them to head into those games with a little momentum. We’ll see how they hold up in comparison to some of the league’s best on Friday and Saturday.

-T

September 15, 2010
I Love Endless Carmelo Reports

Here’s the latest on Carmelo Anthony, who is being used by everyone in the world (i.e. the media and the business of basketball) to fill the void - is there actually a void? - created by the end of the Summer of Money, the Summer of LeBron, the Summer of Confusion, etc. etc. 

This article is beginning to suggest that my envy of the Denver Nuggets’ position has some real merit to it, as players like Evan Turner and Andre Iguodala would be fantastic gets for Melo, especially E.T. If he lives up to his potential, he’s a tremendous value on a rookie contract. 

Now while I am generally a fan of Ken Berg’s, I have to take umbrage, of course - who would I be if I wasn’t talking shit? - with his statement that there is a “considerable drop off” between Anthony and Iguodala.

I disagree wholeheartedly with this statement. Iguodala is a better defender, a better defensive rebounder, and a more efficient scorer than Anthony. Carmelo can shoot the 3 more effectively, and he’s played more playoff games and won a national championship at Syracuse, the two biggest factors in why Anthony is perceived to be a “great” player. These latter two “qualities” obviously aren’t terribly relevant in the overall scheme of things. 

Ok, and because you knew I had to do it, here is the advanced stats breakdown: 

APM: AI9 (+4.66) CA (+4.20)
PER: AI9 (17.75) CA (22.95)
WP48: AI9 (.218) CA (.109) 
WARP: AI9 (9.4) CA (9.5) 

So, at the very least, I think it’s fair to say that the drop off is debatable. Not sure why Iguodala is always being undervalued by reporters - other than the fact that Philly hasn’t been very good for a while - but he certainly deserves better. 

May 27, 2010
Here’s the Question…

If Philly is indeed dumb enough to shop the #2 pick in the draft, but the only way to get it is to absorb Elton Brand’s contract…what do you do, hotshot?

Dad, Mike, and I exchanged several emails about this topic earlier today. In our defense, it’s not entirely a hypothetical, as evidenced by this post on ESPN’s Rumor Central:

Pistons president of basketball operations Joe Dumars spoke to the Detroit media Tuesday about a bunch of topics including making the team tough again. Terry Foster of The Detroit News has a trade in mind that could achieve Dumars’ wish, but it would require him to make a daring move.

Foster writes: “The 76ers are willing to unload the No. 2 pick in the draft along with 6-foot-9 power forward bust Elton Brand. … Brand could be what the doctor ordered for the Pistons. But Brand will make $15.6 million next season, $17.1 the following year and $18.2 million in 2013. That’s a lot of cash, but it would be a bold and daring move. And here’s how: Dumars should offer the 76ers the No. 7 pick in the draft, Richard Hamilton and Jason Maxiell for the No. 2 pick and Brand.”

Obviously, there’s no mention of the Cavs in either of those two paragraphs. But the implication seems to be that Philly’s top priority is getting out from under the massive financial boulder that is the next 3 years of Brand’s contract—even if that means giving up a potential franchise player in Turner (or DeMarcus Cousins, or Derrick Favors).

If the Cavs were to attempt to chase a similar deal, the key components would most likely be Antawn Jamison + Delonte for Brand and the #2 pick. Since both the Cavs and Sixers are considered over the cap for next season already, trade regulations would allow this exact deal to take place with no further players or cash changing hands. (For any budding capologists out there, the reason is that the total combined 2010-11 salary for Jamison ($13.4MM) and Delonte ($4.5MM, but only 500K guaranteed) is less than 125% + 100K of Brand’s 2010-11 salary of $15.6MM. As long as that’s the case with two teams over the cap, everything is golden.)

In theory, Jamison’s contract would actually be better for the Sixers in the long term than Rip Hamilton’s. Jamison has $28MM total remaining on his current contract, but the deal expires at the end of the 2011-12 season.  Hamilton, on the other hand, has $37.5MM total remaining, and the deal doesn’t expire until the end of the 2012-2013 season.

Further, if Philly’s main concern is the cap rather than talent, Delonte can be instantly cut for a savings of $4M and no salary obligation for future seasons. Maxiell, on the other hand, is owed $5M per year for the next three seasons.

In sum, the Cavs’ version of this deal would save the Sixers about $24M total ($9.5M on Hamilton + $14.5MM Maxiell) in comparison to the rumored Pistons’ version of the deal. For a cash-strapped franchise looking to build around their young talent, that figure is nothing to take lightly.

Now, am I entirely convinced that this is a viable option for the Cavs? Not really. The big advantage that the Pistons have at this hypothetical bargaining table is the #7 pick. Though it’s still highly questionable in my mind, the Sixers’ choosing to move down 5 spots for the opportunity to unload Brand isn’t a totally indefensible decision. However, that deal gets decidedly dicier if instead of moving to #7, they move out of the first round of the draft completely by trading with the Cavs (assuming Ferry couldn’t rope in a 3rd team to give up a reasonably high draft pick this year).

But assuming Ferry manages to construct such a deal, is the financial body blow (pause) of absorbing Elton Brand worth it?  After considering it, I’m convinced that the answer is ‘yes.’

At first glance, this would seem to go against my post the other night about how the Cavs need to stop thinking so much about buying their way to a title. However, my main issue with that strategy’s implementation is that they’ve spent the past few years trying to buy the title with old guys. At least overpaying for Turner would get the team a young franchise building block, and potentially a young star. (I also like the fact that regardless of whether or not LeBron stays, Turner would have the opportunity to become the most popular player in franchise history just because he went to Ohio State.) In a way, it would be a do-over for the front office’s inability or unwillingness to trade up last year to get Steph Curry, which, right now, looks like a major gaffe if the potential was indeed there.

Remember, the Sixers were one of the two teams with whom the Cavs had extensive trade talks but no trades last year (GSW being the other). As we saw with the Shaq trade, deals discussed in the previous season do have the opportunity to get resurrected in the off-season.

Is it a long shot? Absolutely. But is it impossible? No.

But on further review, maybe the real question is how many of you think I’m crazy for getting excited enough about the possibility that I write this post in the first place. In that case, consider the Comments section your firing range.

-T

March 13, 2010
Cavs-Sixers Bazooka Point

It is not fun to watch the Cavs when they don’t have a player who can protect the rim on defense. It is even less fun when almost no one on the perimeter is shutting down driving lanes (yes, that was Thaddeus Young straight blowing by LeBron in crunch time). 

The Cavs are developing a quality that I’ve seen other great teams have in the past - something I’ll call “the switch mentality.” What this means essentially is that when they know they are better than the opposition, the Cavs actually decide that playing hard for about 3-5 minutes will be enough to secure a victory … and that is what they proceed to do. 

This can be rather unappealing, as it’s arrogant and cocky behavior, and as I’ve noted before - courtesy of Houston GM Daryl Morey - great teams don’t win close games, they avoid them (and also why there needs to be whole hell of a lot less emphasis on buzzer beaters when discussing who and who isn’t a great player). 

The Cavs have fallen victim to this on a couple of occasions this year, most notably in the last second loss to Utah, but the team’s efficiency differential is still great at +8.05 (although ORL now leads the NBA at +8.17 - next best are the LAL at +6.15). 

Overall then, particularly without Shaq and Z, the switch mentality may be irritating, but it is not alarming. One thing that is alarming is the Cavs’ free throw shooting, which continues to be horrible. They can probably survive it because they have the best True Shooting % (FG% + 3P% + FT%) in the Eastern Conference, but it is a little bit scary to see free throw numbers around 50%. The final alarming thing is the fact that Clevelanders have to listen to AC and Fred McCleod 82 games a year. Wow. Every play in the minds of those guys is a product of excellent effort by the Cavaliers players.

Celtics on Sunday. They blew out the Pacers tonight, if that means anything. It doesn’t. C’s don’t match-up well at all with the Cavs minus Shaq and Z, as it allows the Cavs to pretend to be the Hawks. 

Hope you guys have a good weekend.

November 22, 2009
Cavs-Sixers Bazooka Point

Cavs 97 Sixers 91. Cavs go to 10-4 on the season.

Delonte West is the subject of tonight’s bazooka point.

After a Coach’s DNP on Friday against Indiana, Delonte got in the game for 4:10 at the start of the 2nd quarter tonight. Coldstone attempted to convert Delonte into the role of facilitator/shot creator that Mo Williams normally has at this point in the game and it didn’t go well.

Delonte forced the ball into the paint and largely looked for his own shot as opposed to looking to the run the offense. Within the rhythm of the system, Delonte is very good at doing this usually - like LeBron and Mo he’s an excellent end of the shot clock player. Unfortunately, tonight he played like an end of the shot clock player at the beginning of the shot clock. It looked bad and the 11 points the Cavs lost on their lead during his time on the floor completely changed the game.

Delonte’s Stat Line

This and the DNP on Friday beg the question: How does Delonte fit into the rotation?

Counting Delonte, the Cavs have four players getting time at the 2 - D. West, Boobie, AP, Jamario Moon.

That’s pretty crowded. And it’s why it made sense for Coldstone to try to utilize Delonte as a back-up 1 tonight, where he played all last season during first quarters after Mo was taken out of the game.

This is truly a dilemma for the Cavs because last year Delonte was quite possibly one of the ten best defenders in the NBA, and there’s no doubt that Delonte playing at his highest level makes Cleveland a better team. However, it’s also hard for the coach to pull minutes away from guys like Parker and Boobie when they’re shooting 56% and 47% from 3P - and they show up for practice and make the team flight to away games.

Consistent playing time is the only way for us to get a real gauge of how effective Delonte can be this season, so I think that should be Coldstone’s goal. This may mean moving West back into the starting line-up, in a manner similar to what he did with JJ Hickson.

Time will tell, but it’s definitely something to track. Boobie is playing 22.4 MPG, Parker is playing 31.4 MPG, and Moon is playing 16.1 MPG right now (although Moon’s minutes have been going up) - somewhere in there, likely between Boobie and Parker, Coldstone has to at least try and find a consistent niche for Delonte.

Also worth noting is that the issue of divvying up minutes between the four Shooting Guards is foreshadowing really for what could very well happen if the Cavs make a trade. It highlights the fact, I think, that if the Cavs do pull off a deal before the deadline, they’re going to have to give up a rotation player to get one - and Ferry will have to be convinced that what he gets back is a true net positive gain.

Pistons on Wednesday.