July 21, 2010
Can the 2011 Cavaliers Be the 1994 Bulls?

The above is a link to the blog at Basketball Reference, where Neil Paine put a post up on Tuesday looking at how the 1994 Chicago Bulls won 55 games without Michael Jordan, only 2 less than they did in 1993 when they still had Jordan. 

Paine notes that an earlier statistical analysis he did suggested that the Cavs, without LeBron James, would win 20-25 less games - if James were replaced with an average player. By the end of the article, he backtracks a little, openly wondering if James’s legacy will be further tainted if the Cavs win a bunch of games this year, which would imply that his supporting cast wasn’t as bad as the pervasive opinion seems to believe it was.

In the post, Paine shows that the ‘94 Bulls were able to survive intact because of some luck but also, predominately, because of their defense, which actually improved the year that Jordan left. A lot of this had to do with Scottie Pippen absolutely locking down on the perimeter, with a 96.9 DRtg. By contrast, the Cavs’ best perimeter defender last year was LeBron (102 DRtg). 

What does this all mean then for the Cavs moving forward in the 2010-11 season? Well, it highlights a couple of things. One is it explains Byron Scott’s emphasis on defense. If the Cavs end up being a top 5 defensive team like he has said he wants them to be, they will have leaped at least 2 spots in the defensive standings. It also suggests why the Cavs have pursued Matt Barnes, who last year had a DRtg of 103. With or without James, the Cavs needed better perimeter defenders, and Barnes might be a decent start. 

On the flip side of things, the Cavs will also need to sustain an at least average offense if they hope to stay above 50 wins. As we’ve pointed out repeatedly in the past, this Cavaliers team was entirely built around LeBron, with complimentary pieces that would enable James to utilize his superhuman talents. The merits of this approach can be debated - they certainly have been - but I understand why the Cavs did what they did. Do you really help your team by taking the ball out of James’s hands?  

The Bulls found a suitable number one, high usage option in Pippen to keep their offense hovering around the average mark. At the moment, without any additional roster moves, it looks like the Cavs are going to have to hope that Mo Williams can fill that role. Mo’s career usage rate is at 22.6%. Pippen’s rose from 23.9 to 27.1 in 1994. As multiple studies have shown, efficiency decreases as usage increases, so if Mo takes more shots and finishes more plays his efficiency will likely go down slightly. 

Promisingly, Pippen’s ORtg before 1994 peaked at 114. It was 108 in his first year without Jordan. Mo’s ORtg has been as high as 115 playing with LeBron but was a respectable 111 in his final year with Milwaukee. 

The other player most analysts and apparently the team itself will look to in order to fill the usage gap left by the leaving of LeBron is JJ Hickson. Glitch’s usage rate last year was only 18.9. Most of those plays, anyone who watched about 10 games can tell you, came as a result of feeds from LeBron. Whether Mo - or a new point guard - will be able to create some of those same shots for JJ is something we’ll find out over the course of the year. Hopefully, Glitch will also improve his ability to create his own shot off the dribble, while also taking and hitting more catch and shoot jumpers. 

Ultimately, Paine’s post and my cursory analysis would seem to suggest that the Cavs have a real shot of winning 50+ games next year. This will be bad for my hopes of being able to buy courtside season tickets for the 2011-12 campaign, as well as for the franchise’s hopes of getting a new star player via the draft, but it’ll also make LeBron look kind of worse and be good for the economy of the city of Cleveland. 

1:00am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/839943063/can-the-2011-cavaliers-be-the-1994-bulls
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FILED UNDER: Cavaliers Stats 
July 14, 2010
Cavs Round-Up

There are two different Cavs-centric topics that I felt needed to be addressed in some capacity tonight.

1) Goodbye Z, You Were Never Even Allowed To…Oh, You Did Everything But Win It All

I don’t have a lot to say here, other than that Z is the only reason to not resent the 20010-11 Miami Heat. In my personal opinion, it’s ridiculous to begrudge Z for making this move. He’s played for the Cavs for 14 years and even came back after a pride-stinging trade to the Wizards this past season. If the Heat do in fact win the title this year or next (early reports were that Z’s contract with Miami included a player option for the 2011-12 season), I will take consolation in the notion that Z will have finally won his ring. Admittedly, I will still wish that ring had a Cavaliers logo on it. But especially since he has already stated that he hopes to become a part of the Cavs organization after he retires, we here at Mesa wish Z the best.

2) “Who the Fuck is Kyle Lowry?”

Those of you who saw that the Cavs made their first move of the free agency period by signing Rockets back-up point guard Kyle Lowry to an offer sheet may be asking exactly that question.

The answer is: one of the best PGs most of you have never heard of.

First off, any time the Cavs acquire or attempt to acquire a player from Houston, you should automatically feel like it’s a good choice. Rockets GM Daryl Morey is arguably the most advanced stats-centric executive in the league. If you like our perspective on things, you like Morey’s perspective on things.

Lowry is one of those players that the Cavs have had their eye on for years. I remember rumors that they were trying to acquire him dating as far back as his playing days in Memphis, which ended midway through the 2008-9 season. Though not a tall player (listed at 6’ even), he’s not a pushover by any means (175 lb). More importantly, he has been arguably one of the best defensive 1s in the league for the past 4 years. Though my usual source for RAPM doesn’t seem to be loading tonight for some reason, it appears that his 4 year aggregate defense RAPM is right around -2, which is excellent (remember, negative numbers are good in defensive RAPM).

Further, Lowry is a disgustingly good rebounder for his position. Here’s what Mesa favorite Tom Haberstroh had to say about him at the beginning of the free agent season:

To the casual fan, Lowry might seem like another ordinary backup at the point. The 24-year-old former Villanova guard plays like a bulldog, using his rare combination of strength and quickness to overpower his lighter opponents. And he’s one of the best, if not the best, rebounding point guards in the NBA, as his 8.6 percent rebounding rate (percentage of available rebounds a player collects while on the floor) places him second at the position just behind all-timer Jason Kidd. Lowry, who’s just 6 feet tall, may even go down as the best vertically challenged rebounder in the history of the game.

Lowry also does the little things that aren’t captured in the box score. According to Hoopdata.com, Lowry took more charges (51) than any other guard this past season despite playing only 24.3 minutes per game.

The down-side is that Lowry isn’t exactly a scoring juggernaut. He doesn’t shoot particularly well—only 42.1% FG and 26.4% 3P career—but he’s also far from a liability. His True Shooting Percentage (the metric that takes into account 2P, 3P, and FT) is just shy of 54% career; barring an anomalous 2nd year, he’s been over 80% FT for his career. Most importantly, he gets to the line a TON for a point guard. Per 36 minutes, Lowry has averaged 5.7 FTA career. In comparison, Rajon Rondo has averaged only 3.4 FTA career.

Just as importantly, Lowry’s passing game is impressive. His 2009-10 Assist Rate (number of assists per 100 possessions) was 30.52. By comparison, one LeBron James’s 2009-10 AR was 23.42.

Overall, Lowry is a tough, gritty defender; an average shooter, but also a player who knows that his best asset is to attack the rim; and a more than capable passer. In short, he’s exactly the type of addition I would like to see the Cavs make to their backcourt, especially if Byron Scott’s “run on offense / lock down on defense” strategy is going to come to fruition. 

Before I get too excited, I should note that the Rockets have stated that they will match any offer sheet to Lowry in free-agency. So we’ll have to wait 7 days to find out if he’s actually coming to Cleveland. But if he is, I personally will be thrilled.

-T

1:07am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/810140106/cavs-round-up
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FILED UNDER: NBA Cavaliers Z Zydrunas Ilgauskas Kyle Lowry Stats Advanced Stats 
July 12, 2010
The 2010-11 Cavs: Dirty Projections

Since LeBron announced his decision to “take [his] talents to South Beach” last Thursday night, I’ve seen a couple of different people pose questions to NBA pundits about the Cavs’ fate for next year. Specifically, how many games should we anticipate they’ll be able to win without James in the line-up?

The consensus answer from those pundits seems to be “not many.” Big surprise. Specifically, 30 wins seems to be about the best case scenario the pundits believe Cavs fans can hope for.

Of course, the pundits who were asked this question weren’t people who I would expect are using advanced statistics in their projections. I, on the other hand, anticipate that the team will be better than most of the rest of the people in the country would think, because I know how well many of the players on the roster rate in metrics that the average fan (and average pundit) aren’t considering. For instance, when the idea of Toronto signing-and-trading Chris Bosh to the Cavs was being heavily discussed, our buddy Chad Ford (one half of T.I.T.) made the point that the Cavs could potentially use the deal to unload a bad contract like…Anderson Varejao’s. Whereas we here at Mesa have regarded Andy as the Cavs’ second-best player since about 2006.

But since “better than these other guys think” still isn’t a good answer to “How good do you think the 2010-11 Cavs will be?”, I decided I would use Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes (WP48) to build a rough model that would spit out some actual numbers.

Here are the parameters I set:

  • I can only use players who are actually under contract for next year
  • I’m excluding Delonte because Chris Grant has all but said that he will be cut or traded prior to his contract becoming guaranteed early next month
  • There is a total of 240 minutes per game to distribute among the roster, since 5 players have to be on the floor for 48 minutes (5 x 48 = 240)
  • The starting 5 will be Mo at 1, Parker at 2, Moon at 3, Jamison at 4, Varejao at 5
  • Each starter will average 36 minutes per game.
  • JJ will be the 6th man, and will average 20 minutes per game
  • Sebastian Telfair will be the “most likely to DNP” and will only average 4 minutes per game
  • All of the other subs on the roster will average 9 minutes per game
  • Each player will play all 82 games

If use each player’s WP48 from the 2009-10 season and the minutes-per-game assumptions above, we get the following projection.

Varejao = .179 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 11 wins

Mo = .136 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 8.4 wins

Moon = .131 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 8.1 wins

Hickson = .123 WP48 x 20 mpg x 82 games = 4.2 wins

Gibson = .117 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.8 wins

Jamison = .115 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 7.1 wins

Parker = .103 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 6.3 wins

Powe = .097 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.5 wins

Green = .083 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.3 wins

Jawad = .069 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.1 wins

Telfair = .020 WP48 x 4 mpg x 82 games = 0.1 wins

TOTAL PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 51 wins

Now, supposedly the WP48 statistic only accounts for 80% of wins. If we assume that to be true, then we should adjust this 51-win total by dropping it 20%.

TOTAL ADJUSTED PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 41 wins

The problem here is that it’s flawed to assume that these players are going to be able to play the same way without LeBron that they did with LeBron. In that sense, it’s misleading to use their 2009-10 WP48 stats in a projection. It’s likely more accurate to use their career WP48 stats.

Admittedly, this revised model would still be a very rough one, since there are some players—Andy, Jawad, Boobie, Hickson, and Danny Green—who have played with LeBron for their entire NBA careers. But it’s the best we can do right now.

When we plug career WP48 stats into the model, we get these numbers:

Varejao = .156 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 = 9.6 wins

Mo = .095 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 = 5.8 wins

Moon = .122 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 = 7.5 wins

Hickson = .116 WP48 x 20 mpg x 82 = 4.0 wins

Gibson = .107 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 1.6 wins

Jamison = .118 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 = 7.3 wins

Parker = .100 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 = 6.2 wins

Powe = .183 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 2.8 wins

Green = .083 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 1.7 wins

Jawad = .068 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 1.0 wins

Telfair = .013 WP48 x 4 mpg x 82 = 0.1 wins

TOTAL PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 48 wins

Again, if we drop this “best case” number by 20%, we get something likely much closer to reality.

TOTAL ADJUSTED PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 38 wins

In short, WP48 suggests that the pundits are, as usual, low-balling the Cavs. It’s possible that the team could still be competing for the final playoff spot in the East next season, even if they made absolutely no adjustments to their roster. Granted, this would take a remarkable level of health and consistency from all players involved, but it’s not out of the question.

However, we’re undoubtedly going to see changes to the roster in the coming weeks. My personal hope is that those changes are geared toward making the team better in the long run rather than the short. But as it stands now, we should feel comfortable that the Cavs are not going to be a 15-win team. Cold comfort if you consider where we thought the team was only a few months ago, but the first step towards improvement is realism. Hopefully the front office agrees.

-T

12:22am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/801145443/the-2010-11-cavs-dirty-projections
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FILED UNDER: Advanced Stats WP48 Stats Cavs NBA LeBron James LeBron Cleveland 
July 8, 2010
A Look at NWO: The Wolfpack Through WP48

Interesting look at a Wade-James-Bosh trio from the WP48 guys, via the Wall Street Journal. 

7:13am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/785322643/a-look-at-nwo-the-wolfpack-through-wp48
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FILED UNDER: wp48 stats 
June 18, 2010
Good Night to the 2009-10 Season

I originally wanted to look at all of the Finals stats and see if, averaged out over the 7 games, this series was really as wacky as it kept looking game to game. But as of right now (11:14 PM PT), none of our usual go-to sites for numbers has the game 7 stats live yet.  So instead, I’m just going to address the larger question that these playoffs have now raised for me. I expect it’s one I’ll be exploring in some capacity in the blog next season. 

I can say with certainty that I learned more about the game of basketball in the course of the past year than I’ve ever learned about any sport in my life. Despite all of it, though, this post-season surprised me time and again. I don’t think I’m alone in that. But I also think that until I had that knowledge base, I couldn’t fully understand the magnitude of the difference between the regular season and the playoffs. Orlando riding a ridiculously efficient 3 point shooting streak from game 7 of the 2009 East semifinals through a six-game ECF was one thing; the Celtics resurrecting themselves from the land of the dead (see: the 4 seed in the East), tearing through the overall #1 (Cavs) and #2 seed (Magic) only to miss the title by a scant 4 points in the seventh game of the Finals against the overall #3 seed…that’s entirely another.

The aspect of this that I’m grappling with is my level of belief in advanced statistics. Or really, a better way of putting it would be that I’m trying to figure out the degree to which I should apply advanced stats in my thinking about the game, and the degree to which they should be counter-balanced by “intangibles,” or elements that sabermetricians haven’t yet figured out a way to quantify.

There are certainly some things in the playoffs that worked as we would’ve expected. For instance, LAL and Boston were both in the top 10 in efficiency differential and the top 6 in defensive efficiency. The fact that they ended up in the Finals isn’t necessarily shocking—especially when you consider the hospital ward full of injuries that the Cs experienced over the course of the season. 

On the other hand, things like Derek Fisher—a guy who rated below average all season in almost every advanced statistical category—being a legitimate difference-maker throughout the playoffs, were much more surprising.

Of course, the go-to counter-argument for any stat geek is that this is just another example of randomness. Because of the much smaller number of games involved, the playoffs can begin at any peak or valley in a player’s performance. But part of the reason that I chose Fisher to use as the above example is that historically, he is in fact a better player in the playoffs than the regular season. (If you don’t believe me, compare his career regular season advanced stats with his career playoff ones here.)

This raises a potentially interesting question: if stat heads can show evidence of a difference in play between the regular and post-seasons for individuals, how do we reconcile those in terms of our expectations for teams come playoff time?  Does it also suggest that we should be trying to figure out some kind of team playoff statistics to help in our post-season evaluations? This would be a difficult task since personnel can be a revolving door from one year to the next, but there may be a way to combine individual players’ post-season stats—or at least those of the core players—to try to determine if there’s likely to be a difference in the entire franchise come playoff time.

On some level, what I’m saying is that advanced stats are great, but their value is clearly diminished in my eyes when it comes playoff time. The regular season is definitely not irrelevant, but not everything is going to carry over straight off the same stat sheet that described the previous 82 games. There’s always a deeper level you can examine, and I’m a little disappointed in myself for not looking at more of the mitigating factors. Then again, this is why I don’t gamble. 

However, one of my long-held beliefs was reinforced with steel thanks to these Finals. Part of the reason I have always hated the sports franchises of Boston so much is that even in the rare instances where I am rooting for them, they still manage to fuck me. The 2009-10 Finals is another notch on their belt in that regard. Thanks for keeping tradition alive, Celtics.

PS: One final thought - if you know anyone planning on rallying for LeBron James this weekend, tell them to stay home. Even Buzz Bissinger is sick of his shit.

-T

1:01am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/710809076/good-night-to-the-2009-10-season
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FILED UNDER: NBA Stats LeBron