The above is a link to the blog at Basketball Reference, where Neil Paine put a post up on Tuesday looking at how the 1994 Chicago Bulls won 55 games without Michael Jordan, only 2 less than they did in 1993 when they still had Jordan.
Paine notes that an earlier statistical analysis he did suggested that the Cavs, without LeBron James, would win 20-25 less games - if James were replaced with an average player. By the end of the article, he backtracks a little, openly wondering if James’s legacy will be further tainted if the Cavs win a bunch of games this year, which would imply that his supporting cast wasn’t as bad as the pervasive opinion seems to believe it was.
In the post, Paine shows that the ‘94 Bulls were able to survive intact because of some luck but also, predominately, because of their defense, which actually improved the year that Jordan left. A lot of this had to do with Scottie Pippen absolutely locking down on the perimeter, with a 96.9 DRtg. By contrast, the Cavs’ best perimeter defender last year was LeBron (102 DRtg).
What does this all mean then for the Cavs moving forward in the 2010-11 season? Well, it highlights a couple of things. One is it explains Byron Scott’s emphasis on defense. If the Cavs end up being a top 5 defensive team like he has said he wants them to be, they will have leaped at least 2 spots in the defensive standings. It also suggests why the Cavs have pursued Matt Barnes, who last year had a DRtg of 103. With or without James, the Cavs needed better perimeter defenders, and Barnes might be a decent start.
On the flip side of things, the Cavs will also need to sustain an at least average offense if they hope to stay above 50 wins. As we’ve pointed out repeatedly in the past, this Cavaliers team was entirely built around LeBron, with complimentary pieces that would enable James to utilize his superhuman talents. The merits of this approach can be debated - they certainly have been - but I understand why the Cavs did what they did. Do you really help your team by taking the ball out of James’s hands?
The Bulls found a suitable number one, high usage option in Pippen to keep their offense hovering around the average mark. At the moment, without any additional roster moves, it looks like the Cavs are going to have to hope that Mo Williams can fill that role. Mo’s career usage rate is at 22.6%. Pippen’s rose from 23.9 to 27.1 in 1994. As multiple studies have shown, efficiency decreases as usage increases, so if Mo takes more shots and finishes more plays his efficiency will likely go down slightly.
Promisingly, Pippen’s ORtg before 1994 peaked at 114. It was 108 in his first year without Jordan. Mo’s ORtg has been as high as 115 playing with LeBron but was a respectable 111 in his final year with Milwaukee.
The other player most analysts and apparently the team itself will look to in order to fill the usage gap left by the leaving of LeBron is JJ Hickson. Glitch’s usage rate last year was only 18.9. Most of those plays, anyone who watched about 10 games can tell you, came as a result of feeds from LeBron. Whether Mo - or a new point guard - will be able to create some of those same shots for JJ is something we’ll find out over the course of the year. Hopefully, Glitch will also improve his ability to create his own shot off the dribble, while also taking and hitting more catch and shoot jumpers.
Ultimately, Paine’s post and my cursory analysis would seem to suggest that the Cavs have a real shot of winning 50+ games next year. This will be bad for my hopes of being able to buy courtside season tickets for the 2011-12 campaign, as well as for the franchise’s hopes of getting a new star player via the draft, but it’ll also make LeBron look kind of worse and be good for the economy of the city of Cleveland.


