Trade Report: Edition 1
With the prospect of Stephen Jackson coming to Cleveland in the past, the date in which free agent acquisitions and draftees can be traded less than a month away, and Brian Windhorst speculating that David West could be on the Cavs radar, given the situation in New Orleans, what better time to write this season’s first edition of Trade Report.
It’s a moot point now, since Jackson’s already been dealt, but I did come around a little on the idea of the Cavs trading for him - but only under this assumption:
- Delonte will not come back and contribute at a useful and consistent level.
And this condition:
- The deal was Captain Jack for Delonte and Wally.
The Cavs would have gotten Jackson for nothing in this arrangement - if we’re really willing to assume Delonte will not be effective this season.
To include Z in any kind of deal this early in the season, when we have no idea who might be available by the trade deadline, doesn’t make sense, given that his contract is probably the Cavs biggest chip.
Here’s the breakdown of the Cavs assets:
- Three expiring contracts - Z, Shaq, and Leon Powe
- One nearly expiring contract - Delonte’s salary is only partially guaranteed next year.
- Wally’s World in a sign and trade.
There are other players who could be traded, obviously, but these are the Cavs financial assets. Which brings me to New Orleans, a team whose owner is hemorrhaging money, has just been diagnosed with cancer, and is 4-8 at the moment.
These are the tea leaves Windhorst was reading when he brought up West’s name.
When I look at the talent already on this Cavs team, I think, “If Danny Ferry is going to trade for someone, he better trade for someone who is ‘really f’ing good.’”
David West is an All-Star, so hypothetically, he should be “really f’ing good.” But we all know that the All-Star team is no way to accurately gauge a player’s value, especially since the entire starting five is made up of players who win a popularity contest.
Here are the particulars on 6’9” PF David West from last season:
Player Efficiency Rating: 18.9
Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: .105
Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus: 1.286
West then wasn’t in the top 20 in PER, was only the third most productive player on the Hornets, behind both Chris Paul (.451) and James Posey (.111), and was also third in RAPM, behind Paul (5.163) and Peja Stojakovic (2.979).
West shot 47.2% from the field last year and 71% of his shots were jump shots, so he can spread the floor - although not necessarily to the 3-point line, as he only averaged .3 attempts per game.
I’m far from convinced that the ability to spread the floor, by itself, is the be all end all when evaluating Power Forwards - there’s too much else that goes into the position. And, even if we consider the effect that spreading the floor has on offensive efficiency, evidence suggests the 3P shot is what matters - and West can’t do that. The notion of trading then for a slightly above average PF because he can spread the floor slightly is a bit dubious.
More importantly, who would you like to see David West take minutes away from? Varejao? Hickson? Leon Powe? Stop playing LeBron at the 4?
Presumably, the Cavs could include Powe in the deal, but he was at least as impressive as West was last year (PER: 17.2 | WP48: .187 | RAPM: 1.714). Varejao isn’t getting traded, and it seems silly to deal Hickson, a player LeBron likes who has also shown a ton of improvement in fits and starts.
The only likely scenario, really, would be to trade Z for West and then move Varejao to the back-up 5 position (he’s the Center of the future anyway). If Z keeps playing poorly - Holland assures me that his shooting and rebounding will get back to their norms before the season’s over…Z’s age gives me less faith - then maybe flipping him for West makes a little bit of sense. But otherwise, it’s hard to argue that David West is a clear upgrade over any of the PF’s the Cavs already have on their roster.
That, by the way, is my definition of “really f’ing good.”
I have my own developing thoughts about which positions the Cavs should/can upgrade at, but I think it’s too early to make any dramatic conclusions - just keep these two things in mind:
- Any trade must be for a clear upgrade.
- I’m paraphrasing, but I heard Warren Buffett say the other day that the short term is always uncertain - the long term is the only thing we can be sure of. And the long term trends say that this Cavs team should be very, very good just the way it is.
If you’ve got ideas for players you think the Cavs should focus on let us know, and we’ll try to analyze their effect on the team.
