January 21, 2010
Marc Stein's Latest Trade Column

Which includes this:

The Sixers are only growing more determined to make a deal before the deadline. I’ve heard that in strong terms from three different sources this week already. 

Which tells me we should expect to keep hearing more trade scenarios that include Andre Iguodala’s name. 

Foiled in its longstanding attempts to move Samuel Dalembert and/or Elton Brand, Philly has apparently come to realize that its best shot at a shake-it-up move is convincing one of the risk-taking/big-spending teams out there – such Houston, Dallas and Cleveland – to absorb the four years and $56.3 million remaining on Iguodala’s contract after this season. 

Not that I’d give the Sixers great hope of hooking Cleveland. 

The Cavs are still chasing a big man that can stretch the floor with 3-point range and continue to hope they can get one by peddling Zydrunas Ilgauskas’ expiring contract. 

Washington’s Antawn Jamison and Indiana’s Troy Murphy remain Cleveland’s top targets – with the further hope that Big Z will be released by his new team and thus eligible to be re-signed after a 30-day wait like Antonio McDyess in Detroit last season — as opposed to pursuing the likes of Iguodala or Golden State’s highly available Corey Maggette. 

Iguodala and Maggette have both been known to masquerade at the 4 spot in a small-ball setup but can’t really be classified as power forwards.

It will be very, very interesting to see how this plays out. The four players discussed, by last season’s numbers:

Andre Iguodala

WP48: .193
RAPM: 3.056

Corey Maggette

WP48: -.007
RAPM: -1.588

Note: Last year for Maggette was a statistical anomaly.

Troy Murphy

WP48: .369
RAPM: -.449

Antawn Jamison

WP48: .157
RAPM: -1.279

While I know there’s been a lot of analysis about the Cavs need for a stretch 4, I think the real concern is scoring. Efficient scoring, obviously. The reason for this is simple - Mo Williams is a streaky player. On the nights where he doesn’t have it going, the Cavs’ offense struggles. The team could use another player who can get 30 if they need it.

I’ve written about how crowded the Cavs are up front. Obviously, they also have a lot of options at the 2 … but they also, potentially, have more trade chips there (Jawad and Boobie), and Iguodala is not only very productive, he’s also a fantastic defensive player.

I still feel that Troy Murphy is probably the most likely addition to the Cavs roster before the deadline, but there’s no denying that “AI9” is a top tier 2 guard, who’s still young, and who - with Shaq and LeBron already on the roster - would probably make the Cavs the strongest team in the NBA.

December 19, 2009
Windhorst On Trade Options: JMID Stat Analysis

To steal a line from Ric Bucher, here’s my snap analysis - via advanced stats - on the stretch power forwards the Cavs are at least talking about attempting to trade for…

Anthony Randolph, Golden State Warriors (20 years old, 6’10”)

‘08-‘09 WP48: .137

‘08-‘09 RAPM: -1.498

Randolph is only 20 years old and already producing at an above average rate. His +/- number isn’t good, but he plays for Golden State - where no one’s is - and there’s plenty of reasons to think he will get better as he gets older and plays with an actual team, i.e. one that is not coached by Don Nelson.

Troy Murphy, Indiana Pacers (29 years old, 6’11”)

‘08-‘09 WP48: .369

‘08-‘09 RAPM: -.449

You read that right … according to Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes Troy Murphy was an absolute monster last season. The reasons stem largely from how he shot the three ball (over 2 makes a game at 45%) and how well he rebounded (12.5 TRB per 36).

His offensive +/- number was high, but his defensive number was terrible … which is where the negative rating comes from. The problem with Murphy is that last year may have been an aberration.

‘07-‘08 WP48: .163

‘06-‘07 WP48: .070

This year Troy’s shooting 37.2% from 3P and grabbing 9.2 TRB per 36 … so you see there has been a drop-off.

Antawn Jamison, Washington Wizards (33 years old, 6’8”)

‘08-‘09 WP48: .157

RAPM: -1.279

Jamison career numbers are good, but not great (‘07-‘08 WP48: .180 and ‘06-‘07 WP48: .125), and this season he’s been having problems with his shoulder, although he has been durable, playing at least 70 games 4 of the past 5 seasons (the other season he played 68).

Personally, I’d love to see the Cavs get a deal done for Randolph. He’s the best long-term option, has the athleticism and length to become a major defensive weapon, and is the type of skilled big man that fits the new NBA model … which is important, given the fact that the Cavs frontcourt is in transition. With Varejao likely moving to the 5 next season, the team will need a complement. And maybe the Cavs can teach him how to shoot the 3…

Snap analysis, so I reserve the right to change my opinion in the near future.