This is the second in a series of posts about the Cavaliers’ potential options were they to partake in a sign and trade with LeBron James. You can read the first part here.
Assuming the projected $56.1M cap sticks and using salary numbers from HoopData, we can talk about which players might come back to Cleveland in a hypothetical sign and trade arrangement. Remember, since the Cavs are over the salary cap, the salaries going out / coming in must match within 125% + $100K.
Before getting into this, I should say that if the Cavs tell James and his team that they’re open to a sign and trade, it opens the door for him to be dealt to any team in the NBA. For the sake of not letting things get out of control, however, I’ll stick to the teams with cap space for now. I’ll also assume that the Cavs wouldn’t be sending any other players out alongside James, although I’m willing to acknowledge that this could be rather unlikely.
Yes, I know this is cheating.
These proposed trades are based on the notion that LeBron’s salary next season, in a max deal, will be $16.6M (105% of his current salary - 30% of the cap would be $16.83M, but we’ll stick with $16.6M because the cap hasn’t officially been determined yet). This means that the salary totals involved in the trade would have to fall between $16.6M and $20.85M.
Now that the Wizards have won the draft lottery, their projected cap number has actually gone down $1.5M from what it would have been had the ping pong balls fallen true to the odds. The first pick in the draft costs $1.5M more than the fifth pick. As a side note, New Jersey’s projected cap number - as reported in part 1 - has now gone up by $900K, a result of the Nets coming up third in the lottery.
Washington is never mentioned as a possible destination for any free agents, particularly LeBron, so the likelihood of a sign and trade happening here is probably nil. I find this a little odd, since DC is a top 10 market (#9 to be exact), Ted Leonisis - a successful NHL owner is about to acquire the team - and a roster that now includes Gilbert Arenas and John Wall or Evan Turner. Andray Blatche, for lack of a better word, is a knucklehead, but showed some promise at the end of last season - and hey people used to say the same thing about Rajon Rondo. Washington also has the ability to go over the cap to resign the vastly underrated Mike Miller, who is also a friend of LeBron’s.
Having said that, I don’t expect LeBron to entertain the idea of playing for Washington. If he were to surprise us all, however, here’s what a sign and trade might look like:
Gilbert Arenas: $17.7M
As much as, I’m sure, Washington would love to make that trade, I’m pretty confident the Cavaliers would not. Can you imagine Dan Gilbert going to his corporate sponsors saying, “Guys, we just lost one of the greatest players to ever play this game … BUT we did get a pseudo-PG who is constantly injured and is just coming off of a gun charge!”
For my money, Sacramento would be a fun place to watch LeBron play if he had to go somewhere else. It’s another smaller marker for one, and us smaller market people need to stick together in order to combat the sheer size and volume of the larger markets. Secondly, the Kings also have some interesting young players: Tyreke Evans, Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Omri Casspi, and Donte Greene.
Much like Dwyane Wade and James, I’m not sure Evans and James could play together, but Landry would be a nice fit at the 4 with LeBron playing the 3 and Greene and Casspi are long, athletic shooters.
Because Sacramento is a relatively young team, they’d have to package a lot of players together to hit the maximum salary number - which would also gut the core - unless the Cavs were willing to take:
Andres Nocioni: $6.9M Beno Udrih: $6.5M Francisco Garcia: $5.5M
Since Nocioni has 2 years left on his deal, and Udrih and Garcia have 3 years, I highly doubt this could ever come close to happening. Packaging Caspi ($1.3M - expiring), Thompson ($2.2M), Nocioni and Udrih would also get you there, and the Kings could even throw in Landry ($3M - expiring), too. That would make the deal more enticing for the Cavaliers, and it would also allow the Kings to rid themselves of the contracts of Nocioni and Udrih. However, Sacramento would lose three cost effective players in the deal, as well.
And LeBron’s not going to leave Cleveland to go to a smaller market that may be on the verge of moving to another city.
Los Angeles Clippers: $18M in cap space
The idea of playing for a team that’s owned by Donald Sterling should terrify James. LeBron is a hyper aware individual, so chances are it does, which means LeBron to the Clippers is unlikely.
Too bad. Because if he does choose to leave Cleveland, I have little doubt the Cavs could, relatively speaking, fleece the Clippers. And, the perverse side of me that hopes to see LeBron fail if he goes elsewhere, sees a Sterling-James partnership as a disastrous earthquake waiting to happen. Step #1: Sterling gives James max control. Step #2: Powerful earthquake of self-interest drives Los Angeles into the Pacific Ocean.
Since the Clippers have two players - Baron Davis and Chris Kaman - with big contracts, it’d be easy for them to pull off a deal. Therefore the Cavs could send James to LA for:
Baron Davis: $13M Eric Gordon: $3M
Or
Chris Kaman: $11M Blake Griffin: $5.4M
Or even the best fit, Davis and Griffin - and hopefully the Clippers next 10 draft picks, since picks hold no cash value).
That’s not a typo. The Rockets do no have cap space. And yes, I said I was going to keep this sign and trade discussion to only teams with cap space, even though a sign and trade opens up the possibility of James going to any one of the other 29 teams in the NBA. But just to make this post - which is filled with a bunch of unlikely hypotheticals already - just a little more interesting, I want to talk about the Houston Rockets.
Why?
Because the Rockets prepared for the Summer of Money by gathering assets so that they could engage another team with a sign and trade since, historically, players never leave the team that can give them the most money (unless you’re Shaquille O’Neal). And because if I’m LeBron James, and I want to be a billionaire, and I want to do that by conquering China, I have to at least consider playing alongside Yao Ming.
And there’s good basketball reasons to do it, too. Yao’s a good jump shooter out to 15 feet, a great free thrower, and a giant, all qualities that would combine well with LeBron’s game.
So what could Houston offer?
Trevor Ariza: $6.3M Kevin Martin: $10.6M
Or swap out Jared Jeffries for Ariza, whose contract at $6.9M expires after the 2011 season. Houston could also use three of the players they have in the $2M range - Kyle Lowry, Aaron Brooks, Chuck Hayes, Jordan Hill, or David Andersen to replace Ariza / Jeffries. Luis Scola at a $4.1M qualifying offer could also be packaged with one of the $2M players to achieve the same goal.
Houston has a collection of picks too from the Knicks and Clippers, as well as a bunch of players overseas whom they hold the rights to.
And thus ends my survey of the sign and trade landscape … at least for now. You can see why such a deal seems unlikely: largely, the teams the Cavs would be trading with would have to give up some or much of the talent LeBron would seemingly be interested in playing with to pull it off.
In other words, I don’t expect a sign and trade to happen - but when other people in the media start talking about the possibility of it, at least you know that Mesa has kept you informed.
The big buzz - amongst everyone who’s already determined LeBron James will leave Cleveland when he becomes a free agent on midnight of July 1st - is about the possibility of a sign and trade. While I think there is a significant chance James stays with the Cavaliers, I can’t fault people for wanting to talk about a sign and trade. It is at least progressive and forward thinking in the sense that it involves conversations about building for the future and maximizing assets in order to do so.
As we all know, after all, the Cavaliers have not won a title with LeBron in town.
Assuming the projected $56.1M cap sticks and using salary numbers from HoopData, we can talk about which players might come back to Cleveland in a hypothetical sign and trade arrangement. Remember, since the Cavs are over the salary cap, the salaries going out / coming in must match within 125% + $100K.
Before getting into this, I should say that if the Cavs tell James and his team that they’re open to a sign and trade, it opens the door for him to be dealt to any team in the NBA. For the sake of not letting things get out of control, however, I’ll stick to the teams with cap space for now. I’ll also assume that the Cavs wouldn’t be sending any other players out alongside James, although I’m willing to acknowledge that this could be rather unlikely.
Yes, I know this is cheating.
These proposed trades are based on the notion that LeBron’s salary next season, in a max deal, will be $16.6M (105% of his current salary - 30% of the cap would be $16.83M, but we’ll stick with $16.6M). This means that the salary totals involved in the trade would have to fall between $16.6M and $20.85M.
And wow that would be a terrible deal. I like Deng more than a lot of people I know, but he’s owed money through 2014 and Hinrich is owed another $8M in the 2011-12 season. Neither player comes anywhere close to filling the gap that would be left by James (in fairness, no two players probably will), and both have bad contracts.
The Bulls could throw Joakim Noah ($3.1M), Taj Gibson ($1.1M), and James Johnson ($1.7M) on top of Deng, but I doubt James goes to Chicago without Noah - unless he truly hates him - and I would consider Anderson Varejao Noah’s equal anyway. Taj Gibson is Glitch without the upside.
A sign and trade with the Heat is literally impossible unless Miami were to sign a player(s) who is not currently under contract, or a three team deal - maybe with a franchise that is under the cap - could be swung.
In other words, next.
Side note: Remember when there was a debate between Michael Beasley and Derek Rose for the #1 pick? I believe that if Chicago hadn’t won the lottery, Beasley would’ve went first, and Miami may have had a stronger two man core of Dwayne Wade and Rose to add to this offseason. Of course, they still would have had a two man core…
I maintain that Pat Riley did a disservice to Wade, to Miami, and to the NBA by tanking for the past three seasons - no matter what happens this offseason - but that’s another story for another day.
The Knicks are a semi-interesting case only because they open the door to one of the major conversations the Cavaliers front office will be having if it becomes clear James is steadfast on going to another team:
Is it better to get assets in a sign and trade or let James walk and focus on cap space in 2010 and/or 2011?
I bring this up because the Knicks would likely dangle Eddy Curry, who has one year left on his deal at $11.3M. The Knicks could also sign and trade David Lee, giving him to the Cavaliers along with Curry for a combined salary that would fall within the necessary limits.
In this scenario, the Cavs could be in a position to get a quality player in Lee and cap space in 2011, which could be hampered by a lockout and will be governed by a new collective bargaining agreement.
What no one knows is what free agency will look in 2011. Will it still be a relative gamble, where teams largely overpay for talent and run the risk of getting locked into bad contracts (Larry Hughes), or will it be restructured to be more favorable to the owners than to the players?
While all of the signs point to the latter, no one can be certain.
If the Cavaliers let (or force) LeBron to walk without a sign and trade, it will give them about $9.9M to play with in free agency this offseason. Right now I would be against the team signing anyone with that money because of the uncertainty surrounding the new CBA and the fact that star players come in the draft, not free agency. No one wants to hear this, but if LeBron leaves, the Cavs should be trying to get back into the lottery as soon as f’ing possible.
I touched on this with the Bulls, but the Nets provide something else for James to consider - is he willing to give up maximum money (by this I mean a 6 year deal) and leave without a sign and trade so that the team he’s going to is able to keep all of its assets?
The numbers are close, for example, on the Nets giving the Cavaliers the following players for James:
Devin Harris: $9M Yi Jianlian: $4M Terence Williams: $2.2M Courtney Lee: $1.4M
But then LeBron has to go to a New Jersey team that no longer has a point guard who was once an all star. And who knows what kinds of draft picks the Cavs might be able to force out of their trading partner, as well.
As many people have already written, we’re going to learn a lot about LeBron James in the window after July 1st.
I’ll be back on Monday to write about more potential sign and trade options with different teams.
Well, the orthodox Cavs fans got what they wanted. Antawn Jamison is officially a Cleveland Cavalier.
If you’re a regular reader, you shouldn’t be surprised to hear that I have very mixed feelings about this one. Admittedly, part of this has little to do with Jamison and much more to do with how the non-acquisition of Stoudemire affects the rest of the NBA landscape.
For now, though, let’s talk Jamison.
The good news is that this deal is another Danny Ferry special. Over the past three years, I would argue that no front office in the league has done a better job of leveraging their assets to create lop-sided deals than the Cavs’. This trade is no different. To bargain Ernie Grunfeld down to taking only Z’s contract and the Cavs’ 2010 first rounder (which, in all likelihood, should be no higher than #29 overall) along with the pieces provided by the Clippers, is commendable. It keeps both JJ and Danny Green on the roster, giving them time to further develop and (hopefully) become consistent future impact players.
The bad news is that today, Antawn Jamison is already 33 years old. This means that Ferry’s two trades of consequence from this season have brought in two players with a combined age of 70. Not exactly the age bracket I was hoping the team would use to upgrade. It feels a little Celtics / Spurs-like, and those are not necessarily two teams that I want the Cavs to bear a resemblance to (at least in this regard. The banners would be nice.)
The good news is that, if sources are to be believed, Jamison is the guy that LeBron specifically told the front office to go out and get this season. Jamison fits the bill of the coveted “stretch 4” that Bron must believe will shore up one of the Cavs main offensive weaknesses. Well, the front office got him. In theory, this should make LeBron a very satisfied man.
The bad news is that, as Tom Haberstroh detailed in an article we linked to earlier this week, Jamison had better be stretching the defense out past the three point arc, because his mid-range game is dreadful. He’s hitting 10-15 footers at a ghastly 35%, and 16-23 footers at 38%. For reference, his 3PT% is 34.5% this year, which is right at his career average and not exactly blistering. So he shoots essentially the same from distance as from 10-15’. This really begs the question of why he would ever shoot a jumper from 10-15’.
The good news is that Jamison finishes effectively in the paint—63.6% on shots “at the rim” and 47.3% from 10 feet and under. And the reality is that those mid-range numbers quoted above are still monumentally better than JJ’s (28.4% on all jump shots this year. Yikes.)
The bad news is that for the offensive advantages he may bring, there’s evidence to suggest that Jamison *could* be even more of a defensive liability than Glitch. Which, even as I write it, seems like I have to be making it up. But as John Krolik points outs in his own detailed trade analysis:
Over the last few years, the Wizards give up around 112 points per 100 possessions when Jamison is on the floor. That’s really bad. I was concerned about Stoudemire’s defense, and the Suns have historically given up around 108 points per 100 possessions with Amar’e on the floor. A big reason for getting Jamison was because of how bad Hickson has been defensively, and the Cavs give up around 109 points per 100 when Hickson plays.
The good news is that the Wizards have never been anything remotely resembling a good defensive team, so it’s hard to tell how much of that has really been Jamison’s fault. In fact,there’s even reason to believe that Jamison’s defensive numbers will improve—maybe even dramatically—when he’s plugged into the Cavs’ rotation. Kevin Arnovitz wrote an excellent article about this phenomenon during the Cavs’ domination of the first two rounds of last year’s playoffs. In case you don’t want to read the whole thing, here’s the most consequential section (keep in mind the first paragraph is just for context, since those numbers obviously don’t apply to this year’s team):
Cleveland has whittled its 99.4 points/100 possessions defensive rating (3rd best out of 30), down to a minuscule 90.8/100 in its two postseason series. Granted, Atlanta and Detroit weren’t exactly offensive juggernauts, but their respective offensive ratings in the regular season of 106.6 and 104.5 suggest that the Cavs are tightening their defensive vise with brutal efficiency.
The Cleveland roster isn’t composed of guys you’d immediately classify as defensive stoppers. With a defensive rating in the 104 range (number of points allowed per 100 possessions as an individual defender), Delonte West has been rightfully praised for his defense. West’s defensive ratings in the four seasons prior to this one? 107, 107, 108, 108. As a Milwaukee Buck, Mo Williams had a reputation as a horrendous defender (and the numbers to prove it), but for Cleveland this season, he’s been downright gritty, and his defensive rating dropped from 114 to 106. Did Williams just miraculously grow defensive fangs? Even Wally Szczerbiak, Ukrainian for “has lost some lateral quickness,” is posting career-best numbers in various advanced defensive metrics. Nothing eye-popping, but more than passable.
The caption on the photo in the article pretty much sums it up: “The Cavs defense: where average defenders become good defenders, and good defenders become great defenders.” Jamison may be in the twilight of his career, but he’s still got enough athleticism and energy to be effective in Coldstone’s help-and-recover scheme. (Just don’t talk to me if 16 months from now he’s limping around the court on one leg like Kevin Garnett.)
The bad news is that I would’ve made this same argument about Amar’e Stoudemire had the Cavs acquired him instead. That would’ve wiped out arguably STAT’s biggest weakness and left a much higher ceiling than what the team is getting with Jamison.
The good news is that Jamison rebounds almost as well as Stoudemire. This season, Antawn is averaging 8.2 TRB / 36 minutes; STAT averages 8.9 TRB / 36 minutes. However, STAT also turns the ball over twice as much as Jamison this season—2.8 TOV / 36 min vs. 1.4 TOV / 36 min—while both players are about even in Steals / 36 min (1.0 for Jamison, 0.9 for Amar’e).
So if we expand the lens a little and consider the number of possessions per 36 minutes that each player gets for their team as TRB + STL - TOV, Jamison actually comes out ahead (8.2 TRB + 1.0 STL - 1.4 TOV = 7.8 possessions for Jamison, vs. 8.9 TRB + 0.9 STL - 2.8 TOV = 7.0 possessions for Stoudemire). This is an encouraging sign, especially in thinking ahead about tight playoff games where a bad turnover by the PF can cost your team the game.
The bad news is that because the Cavs didn’t get Stoudemire, the Doomsday Scenario Mike outlined yesterday is still hypothetically in play. Phoenix reportedly cut off talks with Stoudemire’s agent on an extension this morning, increasing the likelihood that they would try to trade him. With the Cavs now out of the picture, that seems to leave the Heat as the only bidder.
The good news, though, is that it seems increasingly likely that the Suns are NOT actually going to trade Stoudemire before the deadline. Amar’e was not held out of the Suns’ game tonight (which would’ve been customary if a deal was imminent), and all along the Heat have have been unable to put together a package of any real appeal to the Suns. Hypothetically, this could change if Riley either softens on his stance of holding back Michael Beasley from the deal, or manages to pull in a third team. But at this point, their last supposed offer of Dorrell Wright, Quentin Richardson, Daequan Cook, Mario Chalmers, and picks is not going to get the job done (especially since Phoenix only has two roster spots open for those 4 players).
The bad news is that one of the other components of the Doomsday Scenario could still go down. Late tonight, the Rockets agreed to trade Tracy McGrady and Carl Landry to the Kings for Kevin Martin (w/some additional players on each side). However, some sources are still saying that this trade could either be expanded to a three-teamer with the Knicks, or else the Kings could hypothetically do a straight-up swap with the Knicks after the completion of their deal with the Rockets. Of course, the Kings would have to be willing to settle for the package that couldn’t entice Houston to do the deal with them straight-up in the first place: Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries’ contract, Larry Hughes, and picks. But if they’re willing to make that trade, then the Knicks get within an Eddy Curry buy-out of the space to sign two max free agents this summer.
The good news is that if the Cavs win the title this year, it sort of doesn’t matter how much cap space the Knicks have. It seems ludicrous that Bron would bolt rather than defend a title in Cleveland.
The bad news is that one of the pieces that made the Cavs seem like a lock to get to the Finals during the first 54 games of the season may not be returning. It’s all but certain that the Wizards are going to buy out Z, putting him back on the market. But he’s already getting interest from some other playoff teams, such as Denver and Dallas, who would want him to help fill out their own lacking big men rotations and match length with the Lakers.
The good news is that the Cavs can offer Z their entire bi-annual exception ($1.99M) to re-sign him, whereas the Mavericks have only the $900,000 veteran’s minimum. And, as Z’s agent says, “I think his heart is in Cleveland, that’s for sure.” Given his history with the team and the team’s chances to make that elusive run this year, I really want to believe that it’s a foregone conclusion that Z will be back in a Cavaliers uniform in mid-March.
The bad news is that it’s not a certainty.
At the end of the day, the reality is that my final feelings on the trade aren’t going to be resolved for a while. Part of it will depend on what happens in the final hours of the trade deadline; part of it will depend on whether or not the Cavs are able to re-sign Z; part of it will depend on whether Jamison does work in their defensive system; and part of it will depend on whether or not they’re actually able to bring home the Larry O’ Brien trophy. That seems like a lame position to take, but to me, Jamison’s age and contract status—along with the potential loss of Z, whose length has been critical in frustrating the Lakers and a few other teams who try to outsize their opponents—mean that this year is going to be their best shot. Jamison is only going to get older. And while he’s currently still productive, it’s by no means a lock that he’s going to be able to keep that up for another two years, especially at a rate that’s proportional to his ~$14M / yr contract.
However, I like that the Cavs held onto both JJ and (especially) DDR, brought in someone who’s more versatile offensively than JJ, a stronger rebounder than JJ, and a big who can space the floor even better in general because of being a long-range threat (even if he’s by no means a lights-out one). And even though it has nothing to do with basketball, the league-wide perception of Jamison is that he’s still a big enough star that the trade can be labeled a ‘blockbuster’ on ESPN and Yahoo! Sports. It doesn’t mean anything on the court, but as we’ve pointed out before, it’s still a factor.
So for the time being, I’m going to give Ferry a B- on this trade, with the caveat that I will immediately upgrade to a solid B if Z is back on the roster in 30 days. I can’t go higher than that because I just don’t see Jamison as a long-term solution, and even if the Stoudemire trade was never really going to happen, the idea that we could bring in another young gun to stick with LeBron for the next several seasons got my expectations up. And it also didn’t help that a source close to Jamison supposedly claimed this morning that he’d rather play for the Celtics than the Cavs.
Til all this stuff shakes out, though, let’s all concentrate on trying to convince Geoff Petrie that trading T-Mac to the Knicks is an awful, awful idea.
“Obviously, the Cavs want Jamison in the worst way. He fits everything they want and need at the moment. A great shooter with size, a smart player with playoff experience, a strong character in the locker room, a willingness to fit into the team concept.”
That all sounds great, right? But then BW adds this:
“[Jamison] is not a great defender, he’s had some injuries and he’s owed $28 million over the next two years. With next summer’s free agent haul, there aren’t many teams willing to take on that sort of commitment. Especially for a 33-year-old, even if it does look like he’s got a lot of gas in his tank.”
Okay, so he’s all that stuff in the 1st paragraph, but he also can’t defend, has dealt with injuries recently (shoulder), is 33, and is owed $28M.
The combination of Anthony Randolph AND Corey Maggette addresses two of the Cavs issues much more directly and more intriguingly … if those guys are still available.
I’ll let Holland advocate for Troy Murphy over Jamison. That argument can definitely be made as well.
I was out at a bar watching tonight’s game, so I could write a critique of it, but that would be pretty worthless, especially since the Cavs won by 23. Suffice it to say, Cleveland decimated the Wizards.
Henry Abbott wrote a great column about +/- today that went over some of the same points I covered in my +/- breakdown. In the article, Abbott goes into an extended story about Andre Miller, who apparently tried to combat the Blazers inability to get back in transition to defend a quicker Memphis Grizzlies team by crashing the offensive glass.
This seems like a smart strategy - and it probably was - but Abbott goes on to test the effectiveness of it by comparing the +/- while Miller was on the floor with that of the much faster Jerryd Bayless. In short, Bayless’s +/- was better.
As Abbott says, and I’ve said previously, +/- is a noisy stat. There’s a lot of possible reasons while Miller’s +/- was worse than Bayless’s, but the discrepancy is something to at least consider when discussing strategy, in this case the value of sending your guards to the offensive glass versus telling them to retreat into transition ‘d’ the second a shot goes up.
This is something I’ve been thinking about a lot after I wrote my post about the rebounding of the Cavaliers so far this season. When considering why the Cavs would be so good at defensive rebounding and so bad at offensive rebounding, I came to one conclusion - the coaches must emphasize transition defense over offensive rebounding.
What I suspect is that the Cavs’ coaching staff feels transition defense translates more directly into winning than getting offensive rebounds does. Looking at the teams with the highest Offensive Rebound Rate in the NBA, we find the following teams:
Memphis, Detroit, Chicago, Sacramento, and Philadelphia are the top five.
“As expected, offensive rebounds predict offensive effectiveness and defensive rebounds predict defensive effectiveness. Note, however, that the offensive rebounds appear to be more important.”
Two things: Rosenbaum wrote that over four and a half years ago, just before he was hired by the Cavs, and secondly, it goes to show that stats don’t always tell the whole story.
What I’m guessing is that the Cavs are essentially making a trade-off - we’ll allow our offensive efficiency to decrease if it enables us to increase our defensive efficiency by a larger amount, the result being an overall gain in point differential.
And that’s exactly what we’re seeing so far this season.
Cavs are 8th in offense and 4th in defense. Their point differential - the only thing that really matters - is 6.47 (currently third in the NBA).
Not exactly +23 like the Cavs were tonight, but I think they’ll take it.
