There are two different Cavs-centric topics that I felt needed to be addressed in some capacity tonight.
1) Goodbye Z, You Were Never Even Allowed To…Oh, You Did Everything But Win It All
I don’t have a lot to say here, other than that Z is the only reason to not resent the 20010-11 Miami Heat. In my personal opinion, it’s ridiculous to begrudge Z for making this move. He’s played for the Cavs for 14 years and even came back after a pride-stinging trade to the Wizards this past season. If the Heat do in fact win the title this year or next (early reports were that Z’s contract with Miami included a player option for the 2011-12 season), I will take consolation in the notion that Z will have finally won his ring. Admittedly, I will still wish that ring had a Cavaliers logo on it. But especially since he has already stated that he hopes to become a part of the Cavs organization after he retires, we here at Mesa wish Z the best.
2) “Who the Fuck is Kyle Lowry?”
Those of you who saw that the Cavs made their first move of the free agency period by signing Rockets back-up point guard Kyle Lowry to an offer sheet may be asking exactly that question.
The answer is: one of the best PGs most of you have never heard of.
First off, any time the Cavs acquire or attempt to acquire a player from Houston, you should automatically feel like it’s a good choice. Rockets GM Daryl Morey is arguably the most advanced stats-centric executive in the league. If you like our perspective on things, you like Morey’s perspective on things.
Lowry is one of those players that the Cavs have had their eye on for years. I remember rumors that they were trying to acquire him dating as far back as his playing days in Memphis, which ended midway through the 2008-9 season. Though not a tall player (listed at 6’ even), he’s not a pushover by any means (175 lb). More importantly, he has been arguably one of the best defensive 1s in the league for the past 4 years. Though my usual source for RAPM doesn’t seem to be loading tonight for some reason, it appears that his 4 year aggregate defense RAPM is right around -2, which is excellent (remember, negative numbers are good in defensive RAPM).
Further, Lowry is a disgustingly good rebounder for his position. Here’s what Mesa favorite Tom Haberstroh had to say about him at the beginning of the free agent season:
To the casual fan, Lowry might seem like another ordinary backup at the point. The 24-year-old former Villanova guard plays like a bulldog, using his rare combination of strength and quickness to overpower his lighter opponents. And he’s one of the best, if not the best, rebounding point guards in the NBA, as his 8.6 percent rebounding rate (percentage of available rebounds a player collects while on the floor) places him second at the position just behind all-timer Jason Kidd. Lowry, who’s just 6 feet tall, may even go down as the best vertically challenged rebounder in the history of the game.
Lowry also does the little things that aren’t captured in the box score. According to Hoopdata.com, Lowry took more charges (51) than any other guard this past season despite playing only 24.3 minutes per game.
The down-side is that Lowry isn’t exactly a scoring juggernaut. He doesn’t shoot particularly well—only 42.1% FG and 26.4% 3P career—but he’s also far from a liability. His True Shooting Percentage (the metric that takes into account 2P, 3P, and FT) is just shy of 54% career; barring an anomalous 2nd year, he’s been over 80% FT for his career. Most importantly, he gets to the line a TON for a point guard. Per 36 minutes, Lowry has averaged 5.7 FTA career. In comparison, Rajon Rondo has averaged only 3.4 FTA career.
Just as importantly, Lowry’s passing game is impressive. His 2009-10 Assist Rate (number of assists per 100 possessions) was 30.52. By comparison, one LeBron James’s 2009-10 AR was 23.42.
Overall, Lowry is a tough, gritty defender; an average shooter, but also a player who knows that his best asset is to attack the rim; and a more than capable passer. In short, he’s exactly the type of addition I would like to see the Cavs make to their backcourt, especially if Byron Scott’s “run on offense / lock down on defense” strategy is going to come to fruition.
Before I get too excited, I should note that the Rockets have stated that they will match any offer sheet to Lowry in free-agency. So we’ll have to wait 7 days to find out if he’s actually coming to Cleveland. But if he is, I personally will be thrilled.
It would be impossible, I think, to write about tonight’s game against the Hornets without talking about the triumphant return of Big Z, Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
So here goes.
Let’s talk about the contract Z signed on Tuesday.
As has been reported elsewhere, Z took the Cavs’ biannual exception for the rest of this season, and the rest of this season only. He was offered a second year by Danny Ferry, but turned it down. With the money he will make over the rest of the 2010 campaign and the money he received as a result of a trade kicker, Z will be able to cover his losses from the buyout that was reached with Washington.
Now, what are the ramifications of this?
From a business standpoint, it is not a great deal for the Cavs. The reason is that their biannual exception is now gone. Since the biannual can only be used every other year, it is no longer available for the Cavs in the summer of 2010. For a team that’s over the salary cap, this is a fairly big deal. Not that they could’ve signed a marquee guy with it, but they could have certainly added another Anthony Parker or Jamario Moon-like piece.
Secondly, what does it say about Z’s future plans, since a) he believes he can play for at least one more season, and b) he wants to be a free agent this offseason?
Well, personally, I find it amusing that Z is always portrayed as a pillar of the Cleveland community … and he spends his offseasons at an apartment in SoHo in New York City.
Many speculators assumed that the second Z was released by the Wizards, he’d be back in Avon Lake, hanging out with his kids and driving around at night wearing his stunner shades.
Of course, what was the first thing Z did after he was bought out?
He went to NYC.
In my mind, this opens up the door for the ultimate conspiracy theory:
Z decided that he wants to be a free agent in the summer so he can go to New York and play with LeBron on the Knicks. After all, one of the major cogs in Donnie Walsh’s plan is that he’ll be able to surround two max players with a bunch of guys willing to play for the veteran’s minimum. I’ve been racking my brain trying to figure out who all of these veteran’s minimum players could be (Tim or I will write a column on some possibilities in the near future) … well, now we have one guy.
Can you imagine the revolt in Cleveland if both LeBron and Z went to NYC this summer?
Cavs win by 13. Game #73 against San Antonio on Friday.
Yahoo reports the Hawks will make a push for Z. They have the mid level exception to play with if they want, which is more than the Cavs can offer (who have only the bi annual exception).
The article includes numerous quotes from Hawks players salivating about the idea of playing with Z. Al Horford says he’d even watch Z’s kids for him, hoping it would free him up to move back to the 4. And then Joe Johnson basically states that he has no reason to believe Z would want to leave the team with the best record in the NBA and come to ATL, where the Hawks frequently struggle to maintain consistency. He even says, “A lot of other nights we just come out and are mediocre.”
There is a more than minor, but not quite major, dust up currently going on with the Cavs, and it has to do with Mike “Coldstone” Brown’s decision to not play Z against the Mavericks on Saturday.
To recap the situation, Z was set to break the team record for games played, but the Mavs went small, and Coldstone didn’t put Z in the game. Z was reportedly “devastated” when his number wasn’t called, in large part because his friends and family were in attendance, planning on a celebration.
Today, LeBron publicly criticized Coldstone, saying he made a mistake by not playing Z, and expounding on his relationship with the only remaining member of the Cavaliers team that drafted him in 2003. Coldstone, for his part, said he made a mistake and expressed his comfort with Bron being upset with him.
There’s a reason I didn’t write about Z not playing in my Saturday bazooka point. Was I surprised that he got a Coach’s DNP in what could have been a landmark game? Yes. Did I understand the decision? Yes. The Mavs played small frequently, so it made sense for the Cavs to play small as well, especially since as I noted then, the Cavs small line-up has been their most effective one.
Having said that, I’m also not sure why Z couldn’t have played the 5 in some of those small line-ups. I know he may make the line-up less dynamic when he plays the 5 and Bron is at the 4 - you end up with two floor spacers as your bigs, instead of a floor spacer and a cutter (Andy) or a post up threat (Shaq) - but technically speaking Z can certainly play the center position.
Coldstone alluded to this in his after practice quotes, but I assume he got caught behind the 8 ball a little bit, in so much as he started playing small and it kept working, and pretty soon it was the 3rd quarter and Z hadn’t been in the game and by that point, plopping him into the game could have felt like pandering.
LeBron made a point of saying the following:
“…sometimes one game is a smaller thing. What was on the line the day before yesterday was way bigger than us playing the Mavericks, and that was Z breaking the record to become the franchise leader in games played.”
While I respect and understand his sentiment, especially knowing the plight of a professional athlete, whose destiny is often controlled by people other than himself - like coaches, GM’s, owners, and teammates - I also disagree with his statement. The truth is that Coldstone’s job is to play the players that he thinks will give him the best chance to win the game. We all know that if Z had played, the Cavs had lost, and the season ended with the team one game behind the Magic for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference with the tiebreaker in tow, a Cavs loss to the Mavs in November absolutely would have mattered.
Every game is essential when you’re competing for a NBA championship - even in the regular season, contrary to popular belief, which tends to ignore the history that #1 and #2 seeds win championships. Other teams that aren’t the 1994-95 Houston Rockets do not. Even Doug Collins openly stated on TNT recently that not only do you want your team to finish as close to the top of the conference as possible, you also want them to come out with one of the top 3 point differentials in the league.
The Michael Jordan Bulls, who won 6 championships, were first 1st in point differential 5 out of 6 times (they were 4th in 1992-93). The Celtics were first when they won the title in 2008 and the Lakers were 3rd last year.
In other words, history tells us regular season play matters in the NBA. While I don’t doubt that Coldstone could have handled the situation better, I believe he did what he did for the right reason - he ignored the emotion of the moment to try and win the game.
As much as I admire Z for his perseverance and quality of play over the course of his career, in the long run, emotions can be repaired - losses can’t magically transform into wins.
