August 11, 2010
Carlos Santana: Catch Me If You Can(?)

I very rarely write about the Indians since I almost never get a chance to watch their games out here on the west coast. But last week ESPN’s Buster Olney blogged about whether modern attitudes toward blocking the plate have changed in light of injuries like the one suffered by Santana in Boston. I thought it was an interesting question. (I’ll link to the post here, but unless you have ESPN Insider, it won’t do you any good.)

For those of you who can’t or don’t want to read Olney’s post, the essence of it is that the GMs he spoke to in both leagues mostly agreed that it’s not worth it anymore. At least, not in the case of a guy like Santana, who’s your everyday catcher, arguably a franchise player, and someone whose bat you need every game.

However, I’ve also heard other people argue that this incident speaks to a larger problem—that Santana was behind the dish to begin with. Since the injury, multiple analysts (of admittedly varying caliber) have suggested that when he comes back next year, Santana should be moved to either first base or DH.

This raises a very simple question:  how good a defensive catcher is Santana? I’m all for protecting a potential franchise player, but if part of the reason he’s a potential franchise player is that he’s a good or great defender, moving him out of his natural position (and possibly out of the field entirely) seems like a bone-head solution.

Keeping in mind that we’re talking about a total of only 40 games—in his rookie year, as well—I’ve compiled some relevant defensive stats for Santana below. Before looking at that, though, here’s a description of what these statistics mean:

Fielding %: A simple stat calculated by dividing the number of cleanly fielded opportunities by total opportunities for a putout.

Rdrs: Defensive Runs Saved Above Average. An aggregate stat meant to provide an overall defensive rating. In short, how many total runs does the opponent NOT score thanks to your player’s defensive prowess that they would score against an average player at the same position?

Rdrs / yr: Defensive Runs Saved Above Average per 1,200 Innings (~135 games). A version of the previous stat improved by standardizing for the number of innings played.  To relate to basketball terms, Rdrs / yr is equivalent in a way to “per 36 minute” stats. In other words, if everyone played the same number of innings, how would they rate? In this stat, a back-up defensive specialist would rate better than a poor-fielding everyday player, even though the everyday player might look better in unadjusted Rdrs simply because he plays so many more innings than the back-up.

Rf/9: Range Factor per 9 Innings. Calculated as 9 * (Putouts + assists) / innings played. A more informed alternative to Fielding % developed by sabermetrics godfather Bill James. The idea here is that by calculating the total number of outs in which a player participates, you get a much better picture of how much ground the defensive player covers per 9 innings. 

For instance,  say you have a 350 lb catcher. He fields every ball cleanly, but only if the ball stops rolling within 6 inches of the plate. He only makes one play all year. His Fielding % is 1.000. On the other hand, a catcher with superhero agility gets to everything within 50 ft of home plate. He gets to 100 balls in a season, but makes two errors. His Fielding % is .980. Is the 350 lb catcher really a better defender? No, but only Range Factor would tell you that.

CS%: “Caught Stealing” percentage. A simple stat calculated by dividing the number of base-runners thrown out by the total number of steals attempted against a given catcher.

OK, with the mini-glossary out of the way, let’s see how our man Santana was doing in these categories during his 40 games. The number to the right of the vertical bar is the league average for catchers.

CARLOS SANTANA VS. LEAGUE AVERAGE - 2010 DEFENSIVE STATS

Fielding %: .989 | .991

Rdrs : 1 | N/A

Rdrs/yr: 4 | N/A

Rf/9: 7.07 | 7.40

Rf/G: 6.68 | 7.31

CS%: .353 | N/A

Since we don’t have league averages for half the stats we want to examine, let’s look at how Santana rates against last year’s AL Gold Glove catcher. I’ve included the 2009 league average stats where applicable:

JOE MAUER VS. LEAGUE AVERAGE - 2009 DEFENSIVE STATS

Fielding %: .996 | .992

Rdrs : 3

Rdrs/yr: 4

Rf/9: 7.24 | 7.48

Rf/G: 6.93 | 7.39

CS%: .260

What does this tell us? Well, for one thing, that the AL Gold Glove probably went to the wrong catcher last year. Mauer’s Fielding % was above average, but that’s about the only elite level qualification he had defensively—and even there we have to move to the third decimal place to see a difference. A 26% caught stealing rate isn’t scaring too many base-runners either, though I suppose CS% may not factor into Gold Glove consideration.

That said, while both 2009 Mauer and 2010 Santana were below average in Rf/9 and Rf/G for catchers, Santana was further below average in both categories (-.09 further below league average in Rf/9 and -.17 further below league average in Rf/G). However, Santana threw out a much higher percentage (+9%) of would-be base-thieves and was on pace to match Mauer in Rdrs / yr.

But considering the reality of Mauer’s numbers, we should compare Santana to 2009’s league leaders in each category if we want to get a more accurate picture of his skill level:

2010 SANTANA VS. 2009 A.L. LEADERS - DEFENSIVE STATS

Fielding %: .989 | .997 - Gerald Laird (DET)

Rdrs : N/A (Baseball Reference doesn’t break out league leaders for this)

Rdrs/yr: N/A (ditto)

Rf/9: 7.07 | 8.70 - Jason Varitek (BOS)

Rf/G: 6.68 | 8.27 - Jason Varitek (BOS)

CS%: .353 |.537 - Kenji Johjima (SEA)

Based on the above, there’s not a strong statistical argument for keeping Santana behind the plate next year.  He was inferior to last year’s AL leaders in every category for which I can find a rating, and noticeably below this season’s league average in half of the them.

That said, we should keep in mind that we’re dealing with a rookie who caught for 25% of a full season. Projecting Santana’s entire career behind the plate based on this sampling is ludicrous. The most important thing is that in order for us all to know for sure, he should quit sticking his leg into the base path to save one run in a meaningless game in August. Especially since the comparison of his defensive numbers to Joe Mauer’s suggests that Santana could be an MVP candidate if his bat comes through (in a major way) for the Tribe. Whether or not it would be deserved is a question to consider in another post. Hopefully we have a good reason to write it in a year or two.

-T

11:00pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/940900334/carlos-santana-catch-me-if-you-can
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FILED UNDER: Carlos Santana Indians Cleveland Tribe Stats MLB 
July 29, 2010
Rooting For The Underdog

I’ve been watching the Indians play a lot more frequently now that basketball season is over and August is approaching, the slowest month of the year in Hollywood. As I’ve already alluded to, I’ve largely enjoyed watching the games, even though baseball has its problems. It is an ideal sport to put on TV in the background when you’re doing something else.  

You probably already know that the Indians have been playing the Yankees since Monday. On Tuesday night, while watching just called up Josh Tomlin throw 7 innings of no walk, no home run baseball, I was stricken by the gigantic discrepancy between the star power on the Yankees and that of the Indians. 

Tomlin versus CC Sabathia. Alex Rodriguez versus Jhonny Peralta. Derek Jeter versus Asdrubal Cabrera. Curtis Granderson versus Trevor Crowe…

I could go on, but I won’t. At least in terms of the national perception - and really the historic background of the players themselves - it was almost like the Yankees were an All-Star team, and the Indians were a bunch of minor leaguers. 

Which actually isn’t that far from the truth. 

At any rate, however, I was also taken by how much more fun it was to root for the Indians precisely because of this fact. That they ended up beating the Yankees 4-1 made for an even better experience. 

Like neuroscience / culture writer Jonah Lehrer talked about here, there is a lot to be said about rooting for the underdog. Although it happens naturally with any team, even those that are not our favorites, it’s even better when your favorite team is the underdog - and, of course, when they win. 

I started to realize then, that there is a flip side to all the negative things you’ve heard and we’ve written about the NBA’s move towards super teams. When LeBron, Bosh, and Wade decided to join together in Miami, they also indirectly created a whole new set of underdogs. Watching good but not great teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, or up and coming teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder compete against the Heat will be ten times more enjoyable now. And although I will certainly miss watching James and Wade try to beat each other’s brains in on the floor, the Cavs-Heat game will take on an entirely different, but still quite substantive, competitive character now that Cleveland is resoundingly an underdog team. 

This realization on my part, I thought, was a positive sign about life as a sports fan in Cleveland. Rooting for the underdog may not be the same as winning a championship, but it is something pretty great, and something to be cherished. 

And if and when the underdog wins the title, that might just be the best thing ever.

1:00am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/874358585/underdogs
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FILED UNDER: Indians Yankees Cavs Heat Underdogs 
July 23, 2010
Watching Bad Teams Can Still Be Fun

Something we’ve probably all been wondering about - openly or not - is whether the Cavaliers will still be fun to watch in 2010-11, even if they end up not being competitive. 

I think I have an answer to this question because I’ve been watching the Indians when I have free time …

The answer is yes. 

Unless every single game is a total blowout, watching young players fight to win and make a name for themselves - so long as they do so in the best interest of the team - can actually be really fun. Part of it may be hallucinatory - us getting our hopes u thinking, Yeah, maybe Christian Eyenga really will become the next LeBron - but even that can be fun. 

In fact, there is a certain part of me that actually enjoys watching teams that are going nowhere more than teams that are vying for the championship. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little bit relieved to be able to sit down and watch the NBA Finals without having a horse in the race. Without anxiety - which I have enough of already - looming over me. 

This isn’t to say that I don’t deeply love watching sports when there’s a lot on the line not only for the players but for the fans I’ve aligned myself with. However, I have tried to detach myself from winning and losing as time has gone on. I remember feeling absolutely horrible for days after the Indians lost to the Red Sox in game 7 of the ALCS in 2007. After that, I decided that I never wanted to feel that way again - not when it came to things I couldn’t control. 

So even when our favorite teams may not be in contention for a title, they can still be a pleasure to follow and watch, just as long as they’re not getting blown out. Plus, it’s always fun to root against other teams. And thankfully the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Heat, and now maybe the Magic or the Knicks (shout to CP3) aren’t going to be contracted any time soon. 

If all else fails, there’s Carlos Santana, who has a great “I love to win” personality (watch his actions after he catches a third strike) and who also seems to be an equally great talent (it’s early, but he has a .978 OPS). 

Enjoy the weekend, homies. Just say no to the Chris Paul and LeBron James version of doing what’s best for you and your family.

1:00am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/848802122/watching-bad-teams-can-still-be-fun
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FILED UNDER: Indians Cavs 
July 19, 2010
The Spotlight Turns

This is my least favorite part of the year from a sporting standpoint.

Not only are the NBA playoffs long gone, but the exciting aspect of free agency is in the rear view miror, too. Regular season baseball holds no draw whatsoever for me (at least, as an Indians’ fan). Football season is still two months off.

In fact, I was in a sports bar on Saturday night and the only coverage running on TV was of the British Open and Summer League basketball. Yikes.

I bring this up because, in a way, it highlights the state of the average Cleveland fan. With LeBron gone, many seem to think, what the hell do we do now?

Now, as I’ve written recently, practically everyone is underestimating the quality of the Cavs’ roster James left behind. They’ve already been written off as, if not a lottery team, certainly a team that won’t so much as sniff the 8th seed in the East. I disagree with this, but perception is reality.

Despite a recent surge, the Indians are still an ocean away from competing in the Central division. Carlos Santana has added some small bit of intrigue, but facts are facts. The Tribe is 12.5 games behind the White Sox, with both the Twins and Tigers only 1.5 games out of first themselves. It’s not impossible the team could get back into the race, but at this point it seems unlikely.

This leaves the Browns.

Energized by Mike Holmgren’s presence, some notable (if dubious) off-season moves, and a hold-over effect from the 4-game winning streak on which they rode out the 2009 season, the Browns have become the city’s undisputed sports focal point. 

That said, no one (fans or pundits) seems to believe the 2010 Browns will be better than .500, and even that may be a near-miracle.

For now, though, they are once again the great hope.

This raises a semi-interesting question about expectation.

In my opinion, the Browns have enjoyed somewhat of an irrational golden age in the court of public opinion for the past several years. You can tell me that attendance was dramatically down this past season. That’s true. You could tell me that Browns fans have had no lack of venom to spew about the team, the coaching staff, the organization as a whole. That’s true too. 

But I would argue that it’s also true that while in or near season, they’ve still dominated the sports discussion in the city.

More importantly, they’ve done this despite the fact that, by any measure, they have sucked all but two years since the franchise reboot.

Since that time, the burden of being THE team in Cleveland expected to win has seldom been on them. The Indians won at least 90 games per season from 1999-2001. The Cavs lucked into LeBron James in the summer of 2003. Appropriately enough, the Browns went 9-7 and made the playoffs in 2002.

Obviously, the Cavs weren’t expected to immediately shoot into title contention after the 2003 draft. But the mere hope and excitement around having the home-town phenom on OUR team, for once, may have been enough to keep people satisfied for a time—especially when the Cavs won 18 more games in 2003-4, barely missed the playoffs the season after, and then grew into a perennial playoff team and seeming powerhouse until, oh, about two weeks ago.

During that time, Clevelanders could look to the Browns as a favored son, partially because the hope for winning could be largely satisfied by someone else.  In the years immediately after the Browns’ return, it was the Indians. Since 2003, it’s largely been the Cavs.

Now, though, the spotlight has squarely turned back to Berea.

Some historical perspective comes into play here, too. Since the Cavs completed the pro triumvirate in Cleveland with their inaugural 1970 season, there have only been 5 years out of a possible 40 where multiple of the city’s franchises have been competitive at once.

The only time that all three have been simultaneously good was 1994. The ‘93-94 Cavs got into the playoffs on a 47-35 record, but lost in the opening round; the ‘94 Browns went 11-5 and were hammered by the Steelers in the Divisional round of the post-season; and the ‘94 Indians were 66-47 when the lock-out crashed the rest of the season.

Aside from that magical year, the Cavs and Browns were both playoff teams in 1989 & 1990. The Cavs and Tribe were both playoff teams in 1985 & 1998.

That’s it.

The point? Almost invariably, there has only ever been one of the three teams “worth” following, i.e. if you define value in terms of the expectation that the team can truly compete week after week.

With James gone and the Cavs likely to embark on a longer-term rebuilding process, the weight falls once again on the shoulders of Randy Lerner’s team. I suspect this has already magnified the intensity of the pressure the organization feels.

They can no longer be the puppy that everyone loves, despite that it keeps whizzing on the carpet. For the first time in a long time, they are going to be expected to produce for the city.

Starting in about two months, we’ll all find out whether they’ve righted the ship just in time to shoulder the load. If not, it could be a long year for any Cleveland fan who isn’t willing to take the long view.

-T

10:00pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/834990684/the-spotlight-turns
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FILED UNDER: Cleveland Browns Cavaliers Indians Tribe Holmgren LeBron James 
June 20, 2010
Major League Baseball Should Start Thinking “Minor”

In my opinion, Major League Baseball is in danger of becoming irrelevant. Not only is the pace of the sport very 20th century - a pretty significant problem since we are living in the 21st century - but the league also refuses to use technology that 5-year-olds are capable of operating, presumably because doing so would take away from the “purity” of the game. Well, as the great General Eric Shinseki (?) has said, “If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less.” 

According to CNBC sports business reporter Darren Rovell, the Cleveland Indians were averaging 15,530 fans per game as of June 8th. Progressive Field holds 43,345 seats. League wide in 2009, stadiums sat at an average of 30,297 fans (68.3% of capacity). This year, through about 40 games, both the team with the highest attendance (the Yankees) and the lowest (the Indians) had lower per game averages than the teams that ranked #1 and #30 last season. Although the economy has gotten better, attendance has gone down (this, of course, could change by the end of the year). 

Additionally, the economics of professional sports have been altered. Cities may be wising up and realizing that it doesn’t make sense for them to pay egregious amounts of money to build new arenas and stadiums just so owners can gobble up higher concession prices and more cash for brand new private suite purchases. The Maloof Brothers have basically stopped asking for the city of Sacramento to build the Kings a new arena. That is partially because the state of California is on the verge of bankruptcy. It is also because, guess what, companies aren’t buying private suites anymore - which is why we could’ve bought tickets to a suite at the Q during the NBA Finals had the Cavs made it there - and why we could lock up seats in a loge at Progressive Field right now.  Therefore, new stadiums mean a lot less to owners than they did only a few short years ago. 

At the same time, pro sports - like every other form of entertainment - now have to compete with a multitude of other options when it comes to men, women, teenagers, and children choosing what to do in their free time. Digital technology and the internet have made content so easy to create and distribute that we are overwhelmed with options. In the past, I didn’t have the option of streaming a movie from Netflix on my iPad instead of going to or watching an Indians game - now I do.

Again, as far as I’m concerned, of the three major sports, baseball is the most at risk because, by and large, it is anachronistic. It also suffers from an amazingly long season of 162 games, making it seem as if there’s barely any reason to watch until September, players that often look out of shape, and now, apparently, a de-emphasis on hitting thanks to the crackdown on performance enhancing drugs. 

In other words, baseball is on its way to becoming a niche sport - and it needs to start acting like it. 

I would recommend that Major League Baseball start thinking a lot more like Minor League Baseball. Contract the number of teams, first of all. Make the league more competitive, and more fun to watch, by packing maximum talent into fewer places. Force the teams to play faster. If this takes preventing pitchers from stepping off the mound and batters from leaving the batter’s box, do it. Either abolish the DH in the American League or give the DH to the National League. Make the rules uniform. Institute a salary cap. I know baseball has had more parity - in terms of championship winners - than basketball or football recently, but inefficiencies in the market are being exposed. The Yankees and the Red Sox got smart; Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s can’t use stats to outsmart the big spenders anymore. Lack of parity is coming.

Stop building new stadiums. Or if you new stadiums are built, make them smaller. Give fans a more intimate viewing experience, akin to what they get at minor league games. Do crazy promotions. Bring back nickel beer night. The Indians are already veering towards this, with all you can eat seats and Dollar Dog nights. From what I’ve heard, they’re also ripping off the entire Cavaliers game operations scheme, with funny skits in between innings and PhotoShopped pictures of the players on the scoreboard. They even use the sound of Mario powering up in-game, like the Cavs use the sound of him nabbing a coin after successfully made back-to-back free throws. Toss in a cornhole tournament, and the Indians are only a few thousand lost fans away from being the Lake Erie Crushers. 

Will any of this really, truly work? Probably not. Sports are still unparalleled as an entertainment experience because we have no idea what the outcome will be while the stakes are always clear - one team will win and one team will go home losers. To turn the game into, essentially, a big joke comedy experience does the sport a disservice. But when you’re a sport that’s becoming less relevant, and you’re a team within that sport that’s failing to be competitive, you need to do what you can.

10:08pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/720795718/mlbasminor
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FILED UNDER: Indians MLB